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November 20-21 Early Season Snowstorm Part 2


Hoosier

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I live on the South Side of Chicago right by the lake.  I am not sure what to expect over the next 24 hours except frequent p-type changes.  With the HRRR switching the area between rain and snow so often, I doubt we end up with more than a couple inches on the ground after all is said and done.

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I live on the South Side of Chicago right by the lake.  I am not sure what to expect over the next 24 hours except frequent p-type changes.  With the HRRR switching the area between rain and snow so often, I doubt we end up with more than a couple inches on the ground after all is said and done.

Sounds realistic for your locale. I even expect a few precip type issues and accumulation struggles up here for the first half of the storm. That's a very large body of warm water to our east and we've seen what it can do before. We'll see soon!

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6" or greater November snowstorms for Chicago:

 

11/25-26/1895:  12.0"

11/26-27/1975:  8.6"

11/6/1951:  8.0"

11/26-27/1940:  6.4"

11/27-28/1891:  6.0"

11/26-28/1978:  6.0"

 

All but one, 1891-1892, snowfall for the season was above what is average now.  

 

 

 

Thanks for bringing that over from the other thread.  Notice 1940 on the list...that was a strong Nino and the last time that Chicago finished snowier than average in a strong Nino.  If this storm pans out, they will have a leg up.

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I think it is a bad move, low end warning criteria, first storm of the year, high impact/short duration. The other issue is the secondary band that forms and moves over Detroit that all models are honing in on, that won't affect GRR's CWA outside of a couple counties, so DTX should have gone warning while GRR went advisory even if it looked silly.

 

Interesting to note that all of the 18z models ticked SE.

 

In fact, the GFS and RGEM not only keep us all snow, but sets the initial frontogenesis band overhead (versus NW of here).

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Interesting to note that all of the 18z models ticked SE.

 

In fact, the GFS and RGEM not only keep us all snow, but sets the initial frontogenesis band overhead (versus NW of here).

I think there will be adjustments made especially if 00z holds or ticks southeast a hair.

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Thanks for bringing that over from the other thread.  Notice 1940 on the list...that was a strong Nino and the last time that Chicago finished snowier than average in a strong Nino.  If this storm pans out, they will have a leg up.

Yeah.  Wasn't sure which were Ninos.  40-41 finished at 52".

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