Winter 2015-16 Medium-Long Range Discussion

[michsnowfreak]

Liking the trough signals.

If we only lose Dec 1st through the 20th to above normal temps, DJF(M) might still be good. Last year featured a warm December and yet that winter will be remembered as good.

I've noticed that it seems winters are remembered for the 2nd half more. You could not ask for a better thanksgiving to new years weather pattern than we had in 2005, & most cringe at the thought of an 05-06 winter.

[Geos]

CMC starts filling up Canada with much colder air by the 18th via. a cross polar flow.

 

 

[A-L-E-K]

 

[beavis1729]

Not saying the pattern and background atmospheric state is similar...but we can always hope for a dramatic turnaround like 1984-85. While most people are familiar with Chicago's record low of -27 on 1-20-1985, many people don't realize that it was 69 in late December 1984. Quite a change.

For folks who like seasons in seasons, the current pattern is frustrating to no end. But climo rears its ugly head once in a while. The fact that this type of warmth occurs occasionally in December (a month in which most days have record highs in the 60s in Chicago) just reinforces how non-wintry the climate is here, on an overall basis.

[snowlover2]

 

Love how you ignore the 3 day trough before this.

[gosaints]

Love how you ignore the 3 day trough before this.

The 3 day trough that barely brings below normal temps to the surface...

[Stebo]

Love how you ignore the 3 day trough before this.

You mean the 3 day trough with no snow and temps near normal to slightly above normal.

[Hoosier]

You mean the 3 day trough with no snow and temps near normal to slightly above normal.

 

If the ECMWF cold shot or something close to it verifies, it probably wouldn't be above normal during that period.

[snowlover2]

You mean the 3 day trough with no snow and temps near normal to slightly above normal.

Where did I say anything about snow or extreme cold? My point is Alek has been talking about no end in sight to a torch all day and just happens to skip over the trough which disproves his point and goes to a day 10 possible warm up.

[michsnowfreak]

Not saying the pattern and background atmospheric state is similar...but we can always hope for a dramatic turnaround like 1984-85. While most people are familiar with Chicago's record low of -27 on 1-20-1985, many people don't realize that it was 69 in late December 1984. Quite a change.

For folks who like seasons in seasons, the current pattern is frustrating to no end. But climo rears its ugly head once in a while. The fact that this type of warmth occurs occasionally in December (a month in which most days have record highs in the 60s in Chicago) just reinforces how non-wintry the climate is here, on an overall basis.

because record highs are in the 60s means climate is non-wintry? I don't follow lol. We have had this discussion before. Chicago is not a wintry place compared to its neighbors to the north, but it's a more wintry climate than 75%+ of the US.

[Nelson]

I don't recall Alex saying anything about "no end in sight torch". He is simply pointing out the emerging trend on the long range. We've seen this for a few weeks. Long range initially shows colder air, only to disappear as we get closer in range. The trough is there, and it's impressive but most of us are going to be dealing with rain until we can get some sustained colder air to filter down (once it gets there).

 

No need to troll people when it's not warranted. 

 

[Stebo]

If the ECMWF cold shot or something close to it verifies, it probably wouldn't be above normal during that period.

Maybe places that aren't shielded by the lakes, but by that point average will be 35/21 here, Euro has us at 35 all 3 days and in the mid to upper 20s at night. Would end up being above average.

[Jonger]

I don't recall Alex saying anything about "no end in sight torch". He is simply pointing out the emerging trend on the long range. We've seen this for a few weeks. Long range initially shows colder air, only to disappear as we get closer in range. The trough is there, and it's impressive but most of us are going to be dealing with rain until we can get some sustained colder air to filter down (once it gets there).

 

No need to troll people when it's not warranted. 

 

I don't agree with this. The GFS has been wall to wall torch on the 16 day. We now have troughing within 10 days now, that's not far fetched on the modern GFS. The seasonal pattern is going to start overwhelming the ridge that we have been stuck with too.

 

There is an encouraging sign of deep troughing beginning on Xmas day too. 

[Geos]

I don't agree with this. The GFS has been wall to wall torch on the 16 day. We now have troughing within 10 days now, that's not far fetched on the modern GFS. The seasonal pattern is going to start overwhelming the ridge that we have been stuck with too.

 

There is an encouraging sign of deep troughing beginning on Xmas day too. 

 

I have to agree also. We all knew this week would be very mild and that the system this weekend would be rain for virtually all of us, except it was up in air whether the Twin Cities area posters would get something and Bo.

Now the system after this first one has been wobbling around, some runs with more snow than others, but generally staying north of a Dubuque to Green Bay line.

 

I think will end up in a step down situation, where we get a blast of wintry weather, but it doesn't hold all that long, then another blast comes and stays around a little bit longer, than it recovers, but not to any extreme degree - then so forth as we close out the year.

 

And as of right now I think some of us might be able to pull off a white Christmas.

[Nelson]

Looking at the long range last week, the GFS was showing what appeared to be a sustained (good 7 days +) cold period over the wester 2/3rds of the continental US. Now we are seeing that dialed back a bit with shorter burst of cold, followed by more ridging. I guess my overall point was that the long doesn't look as great for decent sustained cold, as of today, as it might have last week. At least in my eyes. Yes, definitely looks to be periods of cold but feels more like a roller coaster rather than driving south on I-39.

[Nelson]

I've been around long enough - should know better than to start a debate on the look of the 14 GFS day in and day out. That's what I get for trying to defend AleKing (retro).

[ClicheVortex2014]

I don't agree with this. The GFS has been wall to wall torch on the 16 day. We now have troughing within 10 days now, that's not far fetched on the modern GFS. The seasonal pattern is going to start overwhelming the ridge that we have been stuck with too.

 

There is an encouraging sign of deep troughing beginning on Xmas day too. 

It's shown that, but it hasn't stayed consistent. I know it's been teasing us with high latitude blocking in the fantasy range that traps a trough in the US... but that hasn't verified, nor is it going to in the foreseeable future. 

[michsnowfreak]

It's shown that, but it hasn't stayed consistent. I know it's been teasing us with high latitude blocking in the fantasy range that traps a trough in the US... but that hasn't verified, nor is it going to in the foreseeable future. 

Of course it hasnt verified, because the fantasy range that has had the colder look hasnt arrived. There was NEVER a look of cold for the first half of Dec on any run, fantasy range or not.

[Geos]

GFS has Arctic air making a move into the lower 48 around the 21st.

Starting to show that cross polar flow like the CMC does. -30s predicted to move in northern Canada.

[ClicheVortex2014]

Of course it hasnt verified, because the fantasy range that has had the colder look hasnt arrived. There was NEVER a look of cold for the first half of Dec on any run, fantasy range or not.

That's a bold statement

 

[buckeye]

That's a bold statement

 

 

I'll have to check the forecast, but I think this Sunday is going to look a tad different than that 

[buckeye]

GFS has Arctic air making a move into the lower 48 around the 21st.

Starting to show that cross polar flow like the CMC does. -30s predicted to move in northern Canada.

 

Has what appears to be a piece of the PV coming down into the northern plains with -30 850s.  Would be a dramatic turn around if it were to verify.   I don't know a lot about these things, but I would assume that would be a negative AO for that to occur....which is why I'm skeptical.

 

On an optimistic note, all the models around day 10 show Canada getting much colder.   We'll see.

 

 

EDIT:  6z same time now barely gets the northern plains below 0 850s.         Good ole gfs

[michsnowfreak]

That's a bold statement

I wish i made half of the "bold statements" others make on here. GFS rushing a turn to colder or a warm up? Surprise lol. I said gfs never had a cold look the first half of December, which was a poor choice of words. I should have said that monster ridge was always shown. Days/timing of course varies. I don't obsess over model runs like some others so I can't give specifics, but I do remember being surprised how minor the temp departure was the first week of December compared to what I was expecting and what was being touted. The fog helped some, but I'm sure it was a case of rushing patterns as well.

[csnavywx]

Where are those GEOS5 model posts now?

[dmc76]

GFS be like....

[chasmosnow]

GFS be like....

image.jpg

 

 Some good signs out there. 8-12 day has Asian jet dying in far west pacifc and keeps it there.This is what you  would expect with La nina.Not sure what to make of this but take away the super pacifc jet of late and Canada can cool down.

 

 Last nights GFS in the 8-9 day range develops nice rex blook over western Alaska.If only the euro ensemble suported  a ridge in this area we might be in business.Alas it does not and snce the Euro is predicting persistence is hard to get too exctited at this point.

 

But even the Eruo weakens the pacific jet.Could the atmosphere be a leading indicater as to what the ocean is about to do?

 

For the time being the death vortex has died a well deserved death and Canada at least has a chance to cool off.Cold air up there can make a lot of good thigns happen..

 

 If the GFS would just once show some run to run continuity out to 8-9 days we might be in usiness.

[OHweather]

Some good signs out there. 8-12 day has Asian jet dying in far west pacifc and keeps it there.This is what you would expect with La nina.Not sure what to make of tis but take away the super pacifc jet of late and Canada can cool down.

Last nights GFS in the 8-9 day range develops nice rex blook over western Alaska.If only the euro ensemble suported a ridge in this area we might be in business.Alas it does not and snce the Euro is predicting persistence is hard to get too exctited at this point.

But even the Eruo weakens the pacific jet.Could the atmosphere be a leading indicater as to what the ocean is about to do?

For the time being the death vortex has died a well deserved death and Canada at least has a chance to cool off.Cold air up there can make a lot of good thigns happen..

If the GFS would just once show some run to run continuity out to 8-9 days we might be in usiness.

That jet retraction will be temporary. Maybe it's enough to build a ridge in the N. Pac and temporarily cool off western/central N. America but I'd expect a strong Pac jet to return sooner rather than later.

I'm starting to worry that the cool down I had in January in my winter forecast will be a bit more delayed and that the month has a whole ends up pretty mild compared to normal for most or all of us.

[A-L-E-K]

warm

 

[RCNYILWX]

That jet retraction will be temporary. Maybe it's enough to build a ridge in the N. Pac and temporarily cool off western/central N. America but I'd expect a strong Pac jet to return sooner rather than later.

I'm starting to worry that the cool down I had in January in my winter forecast will be a bit more delayed and that the month has a whole ends up pretty mild compared to normal for most or all of us.

Was just thinking the same thing today looking at things. The much derided CFSV2 has had a very good handle on the pattern this month with a long lead time back to the beginning of November. It's a bit early to have high confidence in the January forecast, but the first 11 daily runs have all been similarly locked into very warm anomalies. We really need the PV to weaken to have much of a chance to shuffle the deck to a predominantly colder pattern in January- A few seasonal days here and there aren't going to cut it and we'll need good timing to get a widespread significant snow ala 11/20-21. The CFS h7 anomalies for January are pretty much the classic strong Niño composite.

[chasmosnow]

That jet retraction will be temporary. Maybe it's enough to build a ridge in the N. Pac and temporarily cool off western/central N. America but I'd expect a strong Pac jet to return sooner rather than later.

I'm starting to worry that the cool down I had in January in my winter forecast will be a bit more delayed and that the month has a whole ends up pretty mild compared to normal for most or all of us.

 

You may  well be right. However that incredible  strong jet of late was partly fueled by India ocean convection which is dissapearoing and the sinking southward  Siberian high generating incredible amounts of AMT  or mountain torque.It could have been be a one off event.

 

  On any account is interesting trying to sort all of this out.I realize  El Nino signal strongest in Jan and Feb and what we have just seen may just be its opening shot.Convection east of the date line still strong and untill that stops at the very least southern US gets a strong subtropical jet.Pacific jet however sometimes has a mind of its own especialy if wave action in Asia  is inducing high amplitude flow. SSW also could disturb the classic back ground state of a strong El Nino.

 

  At least we can still speculate.Hate those flows that get locked in and show no signs of ever changing.