buckeye Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Question on PWAT measurements: How long have we been measuring this? I never heard anyone talk about PWAT 5 years ago, now people reference it all the time. I noticed that too....especially reading the NWS discussions. Kind of like met terms cracking the mainstream media....ie Polar Vortex and derecho lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 It is a calculation of the total moisture of a column of air, the origin goes back to the 1920s I believe. The only reason we are talking about it so extensively is because we are destroying records like this one from GRB over the weekend, care of splillo on twitter: I noticed that too....especially reading the NWS discussions. Kind of like met terms cracking the mainstream media....ie Polar Vortex and derecho lol Yup... I'm sure the term or index has been around for a long time, it does appear than accurate measurements started around 2000 and the first generation of satellites to measure began in 1994. I'll dig some links up for this, but the one I posted above has much to do with the 2000 process that was developed. It's possible this is a first STRONG el nino with the modern equipment. I'm not doubting the water values aren't WAY beyond normal for December at all. I just noticed that the index has become something lots of mets seem to mention now days. http://www.remss.com/measurements/atmospheric-water-vapor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Yup... I'm sure the term or index has been around for a long time, it does appear than accurate measurements started around 2000 and the first generation of satellites to measure began in 1994. I'll dig some links up for this, but the one I posted above has much to do with the 2000 process that was developed. It's possible this is a first STRONG el nino with the modern equipment. I'm not doubting the water values aren't WAY beyond normal for December at all. I just noticed that the index has become something lots of mets seem to mention now days. http://www.remss.com/measurements/atmospheric-water-vapor I believe SPC's historic sounding data goes back to the 40s and 50s per this link: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundingclimo/ It will say at the bottom how far they go back for each site. GRB for example is data going back to 1953, and this is sounding reanalysis, so the PWAT data going back that far should be pretty accurate as they calculate it off the sounding data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Crazy temp diff from Northern Mich to South Mich on the Euro for X-Mas 2015-12-15_15-57-04.png Looks like a typical setup here where ORD is significantly warmer than UGN. GFS says 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 lol geos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I feel the same way. Great for our business but horrid for others. This winter is a great example on why I have never invested on snowfall removal equipment. Traditionally not counting the last 15 years it's just to wishy washy. For many landscaping companies, it's a service they HAVE to offer. People sign up for lawn services and snow removal is bundled with the lawn service, if they didn't offer snow removal, they most likely wouldn't get the contract. Anyone who does snow removal on the side (not as a primary job) will tell you it's worth it in the long run. This year we have already seen one snowstorm and have 4 months to go, nino or not. Of course in recent years even snow plow operators had had enough, though I'm sure they are over anxious now. Snow removal is just a part of the business equation for myself. One thing I learned early was never to purchase on the pretence it will snow and make money later. I always pay cash and have as little overhead as possible though out the year. In my line of work it is so weather dictated and the strong companies will prepare for the lulls. 12Z GFS shows a more significant severe system for the sub-forum, could be interesting. I'm loving the 1:1 snow ratios as of late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Looks like a typical setup here where ORD is significantly warmer than UGN. GFS says 24th. I'll counter this one with this image: the op run is by far the fastest and furthest east with the cold push, combine that with the Euro consensus, I think I will side with everyone else vs the op GFS on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 In the long term, one thing I'm liking is that we're repeatedly seeing these 150kt upper level jets diving into the west coast morphing into negative tilt/closed off lows. If that keeps up, it's only a matter of time until all of that jet energy spins up a similar type of low with a favorable track for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I'll counter this one with this image: the op run is by far the fastest and furthest east with the cold push, combine that with the Euro consensus, I think I will side with everyone else vs the op GFS on this. I'll counter this one with this image: the op run is by far the fastest and furthest east with the cold push, combine that with the Euro consensus, I think I will side with everyone else vs the op GFS on this. It would nice if it wouldn't feel like spring or autumn on Christmas Day or Eve. Save the torch for the 23rd or 26th. I know the weather is going to do what it wants to do though. OP GFS now has the torch on the 23rd and another on the 27th. Cold/seasonable beyond the 27th. GEFS not too excited about a warm Christmas. Well mild compared to normal, cooler than now. Lol, I don't know why were looking so far ahead anyways, still have 11 days to go yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 EURO flattening things out a bit. Cold air pressing in from the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 In the long term, one thing I'm liking is that we're repeatedly seeing these 150kt upper level jets diving into the west coast morphing into negative tilt/closed off lows. If that keeps up, it's only a matter of time until all of that jet energy spins up a similar type of low with a favorable track for us. Would love to have this kind of pattern to happen through the spring. Reminds me of April 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 In the long term, one thing I'm liking is that we're repeatedly seeing these 150kt upper level jets diving into the west coast morphing into negative tilt/closed off lows. If that keeps up, it's only a matter of time until all of that jet energy spins up a similar type of low with a favorable track for us. Yes. This is a great sign for a stormy winter which means several more good snowstorms are highly likely in the region whether we get into a cold pattern or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Seems to be strong consensus of a pattern turn around mid Jan. Roger Smith who has been the most accurate with his description of periodic record warmth in the early part of winter has mentioned a turn around to colder in mid to late January with the potential of a....dare I say.... Feb '10 - esque turn around. there...see even I can find a half-filled glass at times. On the half-empty side is the notion that when everyone is saying the same thing, that's usually when mother nature teaches us a lesson. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 roger smith uses moons and asteroids to make his calls come on now people Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 27-28th around the region something to watch? Especially around the lakes. Or am I just wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 roger smith uses moons and asteroids to make his calls come on now people What about all those signs in nature that pointed to another extreme winter? Bushy chipmunk tails, acorns and thick deer skins.... Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 roger smith uses moons and asteroids to make his calls come on now people I don't care if he uses hair patterns on the ass of monkey, he has actually been pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 It's not going to stay mild forever. My source: none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 With the WPO +ve and the MJO in the 4/5 region I see not winter like cool down any time soon. Sooner or later the weather will turn to a more wintery pattern. Right now its like having a summer with no sun and temps never breaking 70.... Ill take it after the cold winters of late. This is the first winter I'm somewhat happy with the lack of snow/cold. Gives me a chance to catch up on the around the shop chores which get overlooked. I don't care if he uses hair patterns on the ass of monkey, he has actually been pretty good. I don't see why using the moons and sun patterns are so hocus pocus to some. Weather is always changing and patterns created from the past are never duplicated exactly. The two biggest daily variables of energy on the earth are solar and the gravitational pull of planets. There has to be some merit to their science. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 12z GFS = zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 12z GFS = zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz You could try my strategy and just don't look until January 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I don't think that will help Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Will be a good day for umbrella sales and rain gauge weenies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Euro with another blowtorch. Nice system to end it off though. If only it wasn't 240 out. Bunch of people on Twitter shrugging off the ECMWF like it's insane? Y'all agree? Thanks to Stebo for his clarification. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 This is crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Euro with another blowtorch. Nice system to end it off though. If only it wasn't 240 out. Bunch of people on Twitter shrugging off the ECMWF like it's insane? Y'all agree?No I don't there are several reasons why it is a belivable solution, more so than GFS. GFS is too progressive and tries to beat down the ridge on the east coast in an unreasonable fashion. The Euro spends several days with a flow out of the Caribbean into the Gulf and then into the Southeast, surging the moisture into the southeast. As the trough lifts out the warmth/moisture/instability will spread northward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 This is crazy USA_TMP_850mb_216.gif Widespread highs in the mid 70s. Hell it even had Detroit getting to 70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 This is crazy USA_TMP_850mb_216.gif That's at 12z as well. At 228 hrs it has 70˚F temps into SE Lower MI, what in the world... Could be talking severe wx into much of the region easily if that trough ejection is a bit different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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