Randy4Confluence Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Temps still in the 40s at 1pm...that's more like late November than September. You are getting your wish today. True. Other than last week, this fall really hasn't been that bad. Next week looks pretty bad though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Colder times for T-day week on Ec ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Euro control with some snow north of the Pike and west of ORH up into CNE/ NNE on Thanksgiving night into early Black Friday with a 993 mb coastal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Definitely going to be an interesting time here Friday night through midday Saturday. I think even at home I could be snowing a little on Saturday morning. Meso-scale models are very, very wet (like 1.5-3.0") for the summits, and although at least half of that is likely rain, would not surprise me to see like a high elevation pasting. When H85 temps so marginal near 0C for a while tomorrow afternoon/evening, if strong orographic ascent can produce localized cooling, could see some decent snow on the picnic tables. Looks like all models bring orographic showers straight down to the Berkshires, probably some snow showers there on Saturday morning, too. Congrats Pete! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Euro control with some snow north of the Pike and west of ORH up into CNE/ NNE on Thanksgiving night into early Black Friday with a 993 mb coastal.This post just put Kayem out of business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Colder times for T-day week on Ec ensembles. About the time we see 1st snowfall up here most seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Colder times for T-day week on Ec ensembles.Wouldn't take much considering the look over the next 10 days. Still decent troughing in the SW through d15 so it may not exactly be below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Was never anyone's call. We mistook next week for TGiving We know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Might be snowing on Christmas morning at this rate. we can only hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 We hopefully snow. I think the picnic tables have a good shot at 6+. AS THE 700MB LOW AXIS CROSSES TO OUR EAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILLBECOME NORTHWESTERLY. THE LINGERING MOISTURE AND SHOWERS WILLDEVELOP EXCELLENT UPSLOPE CONDITIONS UNDER PERSISTENT NORTHWESTFLOW. THIS WILL LEAD TO A PERIOD OF SNOW IN MANY AREAS ESPECIALLYIN THE FAVOURED UPSLOPE REGIONS AS THE FLOW BECOMES BLOCKED LATEFRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL PRODUCE SNOW AT TERRAIN 1000FT AND UPWITH STORM TOTALS IN THE 2-5 INCH RANGE WITH THE HIGHEST TOTALSON THE PEAKS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 This post just put Kayem out of business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 Wouldn't take much considering the look over the next 10 days. Still decent troughing in the SW through d15 so it may not exactly be below normal. I wouldn't be surprised if we stay generally above normal in that pattern...but it will at least offer some colder shots so we have a day or three below normal in between more moderate to mild airmasses. The best of what available cold there is definitely looks strongest in the central US...and next week there may actually be a legit arctic shot for the western US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 the times they are a changin https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 ?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 the times they are a changin https://twitter.com/DanLeonard_wx Yeah that is what helps get some actual cold into Canada...it's not ridonkulous cold like some of the recent November cold-dumps (you can see the ridge doesn't shoot up into the Arctic ocean), but it's not the firehose airmass anymore. So this may allow for more seasonable cold to get us at times if that setup holds. Still a ways out though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 I wouldn't be surprised if we stay generally above normal in that pattern...but it will at least offer some colder shots so we have a day or three below normal in between more moderate to mild airmasses. The best of what available cold there is definitely looks strongest in the central US...and next week there may actually be a legit arctic shot for the western US. Yeah that looks like a hell of a cold shot in the West by later next week. All the cold air pooling over AK/W Canada takes a nose dive in as the +EPO retrogrades to a +WPO look...there is bleeding eastward but def modified, and wouldnt be surprised if a storm amps things to the southeast again and were warmer...The end of the EPS def was the most interesting run weve seen though for suggesting a better pattern. Alas, the 00z/12z runs all week have been playing see-saw with height changes over AK/NE Pac all week so lets see better consistency. Also, the Weeklies arent playing ball, but those are the weeklies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 This happens in droughts .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... AS WITH MUCH OF THE PRECIP THIS FALL...SHOWERS HAVE NOT TURNED OUTTO BE AS HEAVY AS FORECAST. HEAVIEST RAIN IS FALLING ON THE UPPERCAPE CURRENTLY AND IS NOT AMOUNTING TO MUCH. OVERCAST SKIES AREKEEPING TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S...WITH A FEWREADINGS AROUND 50 DEGREES AS YOU APPROACH THE SOUTH COAST. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted November 12, 2015 Share Posted November 12, 2015 This post just put Kayem out of business. Thanks. Nothing like looking at 14 day progs for glimmers of hope. A renegade snowfall two in an overall hostile pattern is what I'm hoping for through the holiday season and perhaps we get lucky with timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 It really is a shame we can't preserve all this snow. Who would ever even dare think such horrible thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Thanks. Nothing like looking at 14 day progs for glimmers of hope. A renegade snowfall two in an overall hostile pattern is what I'm hoping for through the holiday season and perhaps we get lucky with timing.Friendly ribbing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Congrats Pete!The boys out at hunting camp won't mind a little snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 The boys out at hunting camp won't mind a little snow.No, Not at allSent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 A weenie drive to 2K+ in S VT may be in order for Saturday morning. Although likely overdone, the latest 4-km NAM is hitting that area pretty good with upslope precipitation (rain changing to snow) and 3-6" of snow accumulation. In reality it will likely be more like 1-3", but still. Graphics are from a new model site, pivotalweather.com, which has pretty sleek looking graphics and is not paywalled (at least not yet anyway). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Some better changes on the ensembles this morning. Ridging improves near AK and more cold into the US. Still looks like a cutter-like pattern though based on trough position, but you need money in the bank first. Get Canada cold and it will eventually spread SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Impressive cold shot tomorrow. Looks like hills will stay in upper 30's. Now that's a season in season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Impressive cold shot tomorrow. Looks like hills will stay in upper 30's. Now that's a season in season Probably Berks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Good news is retorch comes soon after. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Good news is retorch comes soon after. Backdoor tickles thru the region early week capping torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Probably Berks. Any hill town including ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 13, 2015 Share Posted November 13, 2015 Any hill town including ORH Not sure you guys do it. Berks will. Either way, one cool day amid blood red torch. We bloom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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