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Oct 2nd-5th ULL OBS Major Flooding in SC Midlands/Low Country


Hvward

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UNTIL 200 AM EDT

* AT 1002 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LARGE AREA OF RAIN WITH

EMBEDDED HEAVIER SHOWERS MOVING ACROSS THE SANDHILLS AND EASTERN

PIEDMONT INCLUDING THE TRIANGLE AREA. ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAIN

HAVE ALREADY FALLEN IN THESE AREAS THIS EVENING. SEVERAL MORE

HOURS OF RAIN...SOME OF IT HEAVY AT TIMES...WILL RESULT IN URBAN

AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...

RALEIGH...DURHAM...FAYETTEVILLE...CARY...CHAPEL HILL...SANFORD...

HILLSBOROUGH...RAEFORD...PITTSBORO AND LILLINGTON.

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MESOSCALE PRECIPITATION DISCUSSION 0544NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD1010 PM EDT FRI OCT 02 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH CAROLINA...CENT/S NORTH CAROLINA  CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY  VALID 030209Z - 030809Z SUMMARY...FLASH FLOODING LIKELY WITH 6HR TOTALS OVER 4-6" LIKELYWITH POTENTIALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS NEAR THE COAST.DISCUSSION...DEEP STRATOSPHERIC FOLD SEEN WELL IN STANDARD WV ASWELL AS RGB AIR MASS OCCURRING OVER THE EXTREME NORTHEAST GULF OFMEXICO... ALLOW EXCELLENT DIVERGENCE WITH STRONG 100-110 KTJET...WHICH WILL SUPPORT VERY STRONG LARGE SCALE ASCENT ACROSS THEDISCUSSION AREA.  SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE HUGS THE SOUTH CAROLINACOASTLINE THROUGH CAPE FEAR INTO THE OUTER BANKS OFNC...BROAD/DEEP LOW LEVEL WITH AN EXTREME MOISTURE TONGUE PULLEDFROM THE OUTER PORTIONS OF HURRICANE JOAQUIN ARE POOLED AROUND2.4-2.5" WITHIN TPW ANALYSIS POINTED UPP THE FRONT TOWARD KCHS.SWIR LOOP SHOWS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS MOISTURE CHANNEL AS AWEAK CONVERGENCE TROF INTERSECTING THE FRONT SE OF HILTON HEADISLAND.  THIS NOW FOCUSES THE STRONGEST/DEEPEST CONVECTION THATWILL DRIFT ASHORE OVER CENTRAL SC COAST SHIFTING EVER SO SLOWLYWEST...AS THE TROF CONTINUES TO SWING AROUND THE BASE.  CONVECTIONHAS BEEN VERY EFFICIENT AND LIKELY TO BE VERY SIMILAR INTERMITTENT 3-4"/HR RATES SEEN NEAR NORTH MYRTLE BEACH/CALABASH AREA OVER THELAST 6HRS...WITH 24HR TOTALS IN THE 10- 14" SEEN IN MESONET ANDPERSONAL WEATHER STATIONS/CWOP.  THIS REMAINS A POTENTIAL SCENARIOOVER THE NEXT 6-12HRS PARTICULARLY NEAR COAST AND NEAR THE TRIPLEPOINT OF THESE INTERSECTING BOUNDARIES.FURTHER DOWNSTREAM...INSTABILITIES BECOME EXHAUSTED BUT BROADSCALEASCENT REMAINS TO SUPPORT BROAD SHIELD PRECIPITATION WITH RATES OF1.0-1.5"/HR ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL SC/S CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA. STRENGTHENING AND BACKING 7H FLOW AND EASTERLY 85H FLOW WILL ALLOWFOR FASTER WESTWARD PUSH OF THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE LINETOWARD THE FOOTHILLS OF THE NC APPALACHIANS.  THE RECENT HRRR RUNS APPEAR TO HAVE THE AXIS WELL HANDLED FROMKCHS TO KCLT INCLUDING 6HR TOTALS OF 4-6" THOUGH APPEARS TO OVERDO THE AMOUNTS ACROSS NC.  THE NSSL WRF ALSO APPEARS TO HAVE AGOOD HANDLE ON THE LOCATION AND AMOUNTS...THOUGH MAY UNDER DO THEAMOUNTS AT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AXIS IN NC. AT THIS TIME...SERIOUS FLOODING CONDITIONS MAY EXIST ACROSS URBANCENTERS NEAR/AROUND CHARLESTON SC OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS -60TO -70C COOLING CLOUD TOPS ARE IN THE VICINITY WITH A LOOK OFTRAINING TO POTENTIALLY OCCUR.  
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Another .60" overnight, 1.56" for the day Friday; 2.44" event total so far.

 

You were in the middle of the two big band that setup. I'm guessing I am sitting right at 9 inches after more downpours last night and this morning. It was raining too hard when I left for work to go check my rain gauge. Seems like the line was north to south most of the day and then rotated to a NW to SE orientation rather quickly.

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Yeah, we did pretty good with the rain, but without the flooding problems those to the E&W are and will be having. My main concern now is if the winds/gusts show up as predicted, the potential of power outages or trees down in the yard. Duke is reporting 20,000+ out this morning, almost all West of Raleigh.

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