Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Boundary looks pretty sexy on visible satellite. Can't say it's not well defined attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Cap is looks low and very breachable later today over E. Iowa. Modified sounding out of DVN looks like a bomb ready to go off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 12z 4KM NAM doesn't even have the ongoing MCS, so it makes sense that it's much further NE with initiation. I think it's a safe toss The 4K NAM is a cold start model, so it would make sense as to why it doesn't show the ongoing MCS. Use the 06Z run, it does a decent job with the current situation at 15Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Boundary looks pretty sexy on visible satellite. Can't say it's not well defined attm. yeah, i think call for a quick wash out are a little premature...it's well defined and still pushing south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
csnavywx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Convective Ts are in the 90-94 range, already pushing upper 80s south of the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue60007 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Not much wind, a couple of claps of thunder, and 0.57" of rain with the first line here. We'll call that a victory. About the same here with the warned storm. Incredibly dark though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 12z 12km NAM looks ominous for the HR Derby in Cincinnati tonight. Though what time it rolls through will be critical. And of course, whether that model has a clue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The effective boundary will no doubt lose definition as the day goes on with all the mixing processes, etc. However, there's something to be said about completely untouched air mass bumping up against slightly modified profiles. This boundary should be the main focus for the highest severe threat, but there's no doubt that areas to the northeast towards Chicago will have big time severe potential as well once the atmosphere recharges. I would have left the enhanced in northeast IL, but I do agree with the location of the higher probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I have very little confidence with convection-allowing models today. Very poor performance the last 24 hours, no run-to-run consistency and sub-par initializations. The outflow boundary is very well-defined. That's what I'm very focused on, where it sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I'm disappointed that I've been taken out of the moderate... the dry streak goes on. But at least I'm still in the 45% wind (for now) and multiple rounds are expected. As Chicago WX said, NAM looks good for my area. With the way the models have performed, who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nokywx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 DP climbed back up to 71 at CVG with party to mostly sunny skies. Given a couple hours of sunlight here, the current MCS could pack a pretty solid punch mid-afternoon, and then the big show with round 2 tonight. HR derby looks questionable...we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 this is a pretty fun little local battle shaping up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Visible satellite loop shows that the clouds associated with the MCS are moving east while the MCS is moving south. Hopefully this means that the debris clouds won't impact us for as long as they normally do. http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/data/wisc/index.php?n=8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Convective Ts are in the 90-94 range, already pushing upper 80s south of the boundary. IMO i think that's the big issue for the Chicagoland crew...things are gonna pop off pretty early and i don't see the OFB washing out of getting back north before it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Hanging out at McCormick place today so I'll definitely be watching to see what happens in and around Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 12KM NAM 00Z forecast sounding from Rockford, IL along the boundary around the time that it has a supercell moving into the area (if you can't tell from the skew-t, yes it is convectively contaminated, but the soundings from before this hour before convection are similar.) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 IMO i think that's the big issue for the Chicagoland crew...things are gonna pop off pretty early and i don't see the OFB washing out of getting back north before it happens.The OFB is not the warm front. Recovery is already occurring out toward the QCA where SQI is already back up to 79/72. The OFB has progressed so far south it's not gonna be big player I think. Agree it's not gonna make it back north, but more likely is even if stuff pops down there it's pretty far removed and unlikely to prevent WF from mixing northeast, or OFB washes out before any explosive development occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The OFB is not the warm front. Recovery is already occurring out toward the QCA where SQI is already back up to 79/72. The OFB has progressed so far south it's not gonna be big player I think. Agree it's not gonna make it back north, but more likely is even if stuff pops down there it's pretty far removed and unlikely to prevent WF from mixing northeast, or OFB washes out before any explosive development occurs. that's why they pay you the big bucks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I'm about 100mi west of Louisville on I64 heading east back to Roanoke. Might end up intercepting that line dropping south. I need some shelf cloud action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 that's why they pay you the big bucks You know your stuff and make really good calls a lot of the time, so I definitely respect your input on this. In this case, with what's happening northwest of the OFB with pretty rapid recovery, seems like it won't be as big a deal as what 13z outlook made it to be. Risk area will be down in far southern ILX if OFB is focus lol. Edit: last few radar scans seem to show OFB is stalling and possibly washing out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 A few mesoanalysis images to show the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 You know your stuff and make really good calls a lot of the time, so I definitely respect your input on this. In this case, with what's happening northwest of the OFB with pretty rapid recovery, seems like it won't be as big a deal as what 13z outlook made it to be. Risk area will be down in far southern ILX if OFB is focus lol. The only problem I have is that people need to understand that the threat is not over and done. The word needs to get out that some severe weather is still possible in Chicagoland (NWS Chicago is doing a great job at that, SPC... eh). I would also definitely give props to Danny Neal as he is making sure people understand that the threat is not gone even thought SPC lowered our risk dramatically. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 That outflow boundary should lose definition/mix out with time, but what I'm interested in is whether the low level winds well north of it are able to flip all the way around prior to convective redevelopment. If not, we could end up with a pretty large area of more southerly flow at the surface instead of southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The OFB is not the warm front. Recovery is already occurring out toward the QCA where SQI is already back up to 79/72. The OFB has progressed so far south it's not gonna be big player I think. Agree it's not gonna make it back north, but more likely is even if stuff pops down there it's pretty far removed and unlikely to prevent WF from mixing northeast, or OFB washes out before any explosive development occurs. In your opinion where is the greatest Threat this afternoon/evening? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 That outflow boundary should lose definition/mix out with time, but what I'm interested in is whether the low level winds well north of it are able to flip all the way around prior to convective redevelopment. If not, we could end up with a pretty large area of more southerly flow at the surface instead of southwest. Stupid question... what would that translate to later on with storms? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 This is looking like it'll end up quite significant in IL and maybe IN if IN rebounds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Stupid question... what would that translate to later on with storms? higher tornado potential... more veering with height. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 In your opinion where is the greatest this afternoon/evening? I think from QCA to northern IN and points in between, including at least southwest and south Chicago metro, basically where original 6z outlook had MDT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 higher tornado potential... more veering with height. Ahhh of course, thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Some 70 degree DPs trickling into southern wisco now also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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