Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Nice mammatus clouds overhead....not the best knuckles of the year, but pretty solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 13, 2015 Author Share Posted July 13, 2015 should i bump troll everyone who jumped down my throat last night? You saw a better t'storm this morning (even if non-severe) than many of us have seen all season. Certainly wouldn't call that a "shut out..." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 You saw a better t'storm this morning (even if non-severe) than many of us have seen all season. Certainly wouldn't call that a "shut out..." lol i think i heard one rumble.....with the wake low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The SPC does possess the ability to update their risk areas later on....as they did this morning....fwiw I don't think LOT is done for the day...that boundary SW is still festering and lighting up... Will be an interesting day to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
extremewx52 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I am not buying shifting the moderate risk so far southwest. I am very surprised to see that. Would not be surprised if there isn't even a storm in that moderate risk area with the strong cap. Still liking the corridor from south suburbs of Chicago to LAF and Kokomo later this afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The SPC does possess the ability to update their risk areas later on....as they did this morning....fwiw I don't think LOT is done for the day...that boundary SW is still festering and lighting up... Will be an interesting day to track Agreed. I just don't agree with the moderate placement at this point either... I still think the southern suburbs of Chicago and Northwest and Central Indiana are golden for today (as said nicely by exremewx52). Clearing should be ample by the afternoon. I wonder what SPC will do in their 11:30am outlook update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I'm very uneasy about the 13z update and very concerned about public perception with such a drastic shift especially if areas that were in MDT, now in Slight still get slammed. Things have evolved as expected so far and the warm front can easily mix back north once clearing occurs. *Maybe* far northeast IL has a lower threat but I still think a good portion of the metro is game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I am not buying shifting the moderate risk so far southwest. I am very surprised to see that. Would not be surprised if there isn't even a storm in that moderate risk area with the strong cap. Still liking the corridor from south suburbs of Chicago to LAF and Kokomo later this afternoon.Well, the outflow boundary is moving SW (should slow down and eventually lift a bit NE) and currently the best overlap of instability and shear is across eastern Iowa to west-central Illinois. I'm not completely confident in how initiation looks today across east-central Illinois, but I think there's good support for initial storms forming across far eastern Iowa into northwestern Illinois. I would tend to think the greatest tornado threat is in that area, early in storm life cycles. Further east, I would think there's more of a conditional risk near remnant convection/outflow, as shear may be locally enhanced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I'm very uneasy about the 13z update and very concerned about public perception with such a drastic shift especially if areas that were in MDT, now in Slight still get slammed. Things have evolved as expected so far and the warm front can easily mix back north once clearing occurs. *Maybe* far northeast IL has a lower threat but I still think a good portion of the metro is game on. So am I. I see people who upon seeing the new outlook, have discounted getting any severe today as they believe it will all be south in Central Illinois only. I also see it foolish of SPC not to at least keep an Enhanced for at LEAST parts of Chicagoland imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 from dbq draw a line southeast...everyone north is out of the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 from dbq draw a line southeast...everyone north is out of the game That sounds about good, I'd say a line from DBQ to around Gary, IN... south and near that line should be in for some bad weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I'm growing pretty concerned for the QCA. The OFB is settling a little southwest of there, and may lolly-gag around the area through early to mid afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 lol i think i heard one rumble.....with the wake low I heard all kinds of thunder this morning and lightning. I will say the thunder came almost as the line was on top of my location. Would say that was the second best storm of the year. April 9th still wins. Tree and power line damage in Kenosha and Racine this morning. Many traffic lights are out, which caused a traffic nightmare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Keep a very close eye on the western extent of the outflow boundary/wind shift. Model guidance has showed little consistency in the placement of this, so surface observations and satellite imagery will be the most helpful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Not much wind, a couple of claps of thunder, and 0.57" of rain with the first line here. We'll call that a victory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Getting slightly concerned for my area, North central, and central Illinois on east into Indiana should explode later. Will wait for an afternoon disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Already was extreme instability in a large portion of Iowa as of 13Z extending SW'ward into SE NE. And SBCAPE values of 1500-2500J/KG along and south of the OFB. With pretty minimal cloud cover across the main threat area, and even into N/NE/NW IL. Giventhe strong mixing ratios later this afternoon/early evening, strong/very strong insolation/heating would expect the OFB to become nearly impossible to detect, if not entirely diffuse. And would likely see the WF mix n'ward as RC said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for parts of central IL and IN. URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 409NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK905 AM CDT MON JUL 13 2015THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OFEASTERN AND NORTH CENTRAL ILLINOISCENTRAL INDIANA* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 905 AM UNTIL300 PM CDT.* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELYSCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLESUMMARY...A LONG-LIVED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER NORTHERNIL/INDIANA WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD INTO PARTS OFCENTRAL/EASTERN IL AND MUCH OF INDIANA THROUGH THE DAY. THESESTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY THIS MORNING...POSING A THREAT OFDAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHWESTOF BLOOMINGTON ILLINOIS TO 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF MUNCIEINDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THEASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS AREFAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCHAREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FORTHREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTSAND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLYDO PRODUCE TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Looking at the latest IR, that's ALOT of debris. Looks to swallow most of Indiana for the next several hours. Should start to mix out with the WWA but won't hold my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I am not buying shifting the moderate risk so far southwest. I am very surprised to see that. Would not be surprised if there isn't even a storm in that moderate risk area with the strong cap. Still liking the corridor from south suburbs of Chicago to LAF and Kokomo later this afternoon. Yeah, I was surprised to see such a pullback on the northern/eastern fringes. When that outlook was written, hadn't even really had much time to glean any trends on visible satellite since it's so early. Some of the CAMs that picked up on this ongoing activity light up the corridor you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Sun is out here in Crystal Lake. Not that filtered stuff like that Monday some weeks back when we did this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Sun is out here in Crystal Lake. Not that filtered stuff like that Monday some weeks back when we did this. Suns out here in Northbrook too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I'm on I-70 heading west...our current thinking is to head to Champaign and then head to wherever the outflow boundary is. We will get a half decent storm as we drive through the MCS in IN as well although that's not the main target...just an appetizer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Sun is out here in Crystal Lake. Not that filtered stuff like that Monday some weeks back when we did this. That sun is gonna mix the warm front northeast considering where the surface low is. It'll also be aided by 30 kt southwest low level flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 mostly sunny, 69 with gusty ESE winds here downtown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Warning out for LAF area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 0z 4km NAM was west with round #2 (QC and western/central IL). It seemed to do good with this morning's storms. But now the 12z run rolls in and is well east of that solution. Clips Chicago, IKK, far eastern IL...but Indiana bears most of the brunt. Silly stupid models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 12z 4km NAM and 13z HRRR both have storms erupting over Northern Illinois and Northern Indiana including the Chicago area by 02z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 12z 4KM NAM doesn't even have the ongoing MCS, so it makes sense that it's much further NE with initiation. I think it's a safe toss Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 12Z NAM depicts a scary situation shows numerous (what I assume would be discrete supercells) along the OFB/WF in Northeast IL SW/W of the Chicago Metro moving into an environment characterized by extreme instability (MUCAPE of 5000+J/KG), strong 0-500mb bulk shear (50-60kts), and also 250-350m2/s2 0-3KM SRH. All leading to an impressive parameter space, widespread 0-3KM EHI's of 6-12, an an area of impressive 5 to 10 STP's along the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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