TheWeatherPimp Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 EMA in Delaware and Randolph Counties in East Central Indiana reporting numerous trees uprooted and power poles downed likely due to the combo of gusty winds (50 to 60 mph) and the extremely wet ground. Randolph County EMA reporting fire departments on several dozen calls of uprooted and downed trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Might see SPC hold off any of the major changes many of us think we should see until 20Z after it becomes more definite that the OFB will become completely diffuse and irrelevant... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 16z obs show veering winds at some N IL stations, including SQI. Still more backed overall than recent progs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The 1300 UTC outlook decision was terrible. Clearing and recovery are well underway, and with mixing from a bore at the western end of the OFB and a closed circulation in SE MN, recovery should be rapid and dramatic. All this morning round did was ensure the metro, especially the S and W metro, has a tremendous reservoir of surface vorticity to tap. Is it me, or is how this is unfolding have a bit of a Coal City vibe to it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I'd expect AT LEAST a tornado watch with the wording "A couple intense tornadoes possible". 15% Area will probably be across IL in the 1630z Update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Might see SPC hold off any of the major changes many of us think we should see until 20Z after it becomes more definite that the OFB will become completely diffuse and irrelevant... Im pretty sure they will change it... they are a good bit off at this point. Im watching the Weather Channel (its a first) because at 11:20 SPC's Greg Carin is being interviewed about the MDT risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Idk honestly if they'll pull the trigger on 15 percent probs, I'd imagine they extend MDT a bit east though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 While I've maintained south and west was the way to go, I think that where the moderate risk is at now seems to extreme in that direction. I would expect in the next update for that axis to shift east. I wouldn't shift the axis northeast at all. I think the 1300z outlook corridor of higher probs is pretty good, but they should have kept enhanced area further northeast including Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Low level clouds moving north with earnest and mid level clouds moving east imby....not quite the "hauling ass" obs I "like" to see for these setups.... Bluest skies I have seen in weeks (not smoke filled) a few miles to my west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Any storm that initiates in IL will probably be discrete and supercellular. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Is it me, or is how this is unfolding have a bit of a Coal City vibe to it? Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 SQI 75 DP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 EMA in Delaware and Randolph Counties in East Central Indiana reporting numerous trees uprooted and power poles downed likely due to the combo of gusty winds (50 to 60 mph) and the extremely wet ground. Randolph County EMA reporting fire departments on several dozen calls of uprooted and downed trees. Marion County getting hit too. A few LSRs so far: 1145 AM TSTM WND DMG WINCHESTER 40.17N 84.98W 07/13/2015 RANDOLPH IN EMERGENCY MNGR TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN 1144 AM TSTM WND DMG 8 NW INDIANAPOLIS 39.86N 86.25W 07/13/2015 MARION IN PUBLIC A FEW TREES DOWN AT 86TH STREET AND ZIONSVILLE ROAD. 1156 AM TSTM WND DMG 8 W INDIANAPOLIS 39.78N 86.30W 07/13/2015 MARION IN TRAINED SPOTTER SEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWNED AT 10TH STREET NEAR INTERSTATE 465. 1152 AM TSTM WND DMG PARKER CITY 40.19N 85.20W 07/13/2015 RANDOLPH IN EMERGENCY MNGR MULTIPLE TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I wouldn't shift the axis northeast at all. I think the 1300z outlook corridor of higher probs is pretty good, but they should have kept enhanced area further northeast including Chicago. Disagree. Highest threat is going to be on the boundary/CAPE gradient, which will likely be NE of current max probs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Randolph County EMA reporting 30-40 large trees down. They've also had extremely heavy rain over the past several weeks. If another squall line moves through tonight over the same areas of Indiana, could be pretty destructive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MattPetrulli Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Now it's time to start refreshing the SPC Day 1 outlook repeatedly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 So quite a few people here in agreement that the moderate shouldn't have been cut as much (or at least the enhanced area in cyclone's case), mets included. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Disagree. Highest threat is going to be on the boundary/CAPE gradient, which will likely be NE of current max probs. +1 Similar to what the MCS this morning did - ride the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 So quite a few people here in agreement that the moderate shouldn't have been cut as much (or at least the enhanced area in cyclone's case), mets included. Oh yeah. I'm listening to Weather Channel interview SPC right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 NW IN has blue skies again. The clouds are still moving east while the MCS is moving south... should be good for a relatively quick clearing for those impacted Just got a special weather statement for the squall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I wouldn't shift the axis northeast at all. I think the 1300z outlook corridor of higher probs is pretty good, but they should have kept enhanced area further northeast including Chicago. good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 What exactly is the purpose of a WCM at the SPC? Jw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 ML-CAPE up to 4k in western IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 He just said "he is amazed" about the dew points and temps rebounding. He also said "mostly IL" referring to the most severe storms. Not much help hahaha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 He just said "he is amazed" about the dew points and temps rebounding. He also said "mostly IL" referring to the most severe storms. Not much help hahaha. He shouldn't be. No one should be. When you have a closed circ just NW of the region, a bore to mix and destabilize, and no stratiform precip to reinforce the cold pool, rapid T/Td recovery should NOT BE A SURPRISE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Gonna be fascinating to see how this all plays out. About as explosive as the atmosphere can get with all the parameters involved. How often do we see an upper jet of this magnitude over such extreme instability? Has to be extremely rare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 77/70 here,,, beginning to feel pretty sticky outside. Humidity is 80% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 ..SUMMARY MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS...TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY TODAY AND TONIGHT ACROSS MUCH OF THE MIDWEST...BUT ESPECIALLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ILLINOIS...INDIANA...AND KENTUCKY. ..IND/OH/KY/TN A LARGE BOWING MCS IS TRACKING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL IND. THIS SYSTEM WILL PROGRESS INTO CENTRAL KY AND EVENTUALLY INTO MIDDLE/EASTERN TN. A VERY MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT AHEAD OF THE STORMS...ALONG WITH INCREASING WINDS ALOFT. PRESENT CONDITIONS SUGGEST STORMS MAY INTENSIFY INTO A LONG-LIVED AND DAMAGING BOW ECHO WITH THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WINDS /DERECHO/. HAVE ADJUSTED THE MDT RISK TO INCLUDE MUCH OF CENTRAL KY AHEAD OF THIS ACTIVITY. ..WI/IA/IL AND WESTERN IND/KY THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED MCS CURRENTLY EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL IL INTO EASTERN IA. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG HEATING IS COMMENCING OVER NORTHERN IL AND SOUTHERN WI ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY. SURFACE WINDS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN SOME SIGN OF VEERING BACK TO SOUTHWESTERLY IN THIS REGION...SUGGESTING THAT A MOIST AND EXTREMELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL RE-DEVELOP. MOST 12Z MODELS DID NOT INITIALIZE THE LOCATION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...LENDING UNCERTAINTY TO PLACEMENT OF CONVECTIVE INITIATION LATER TODAY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT RAPID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BY MID/LATE AFTERNOON OVER SOUTHERN WI/NORTHERN IL. RARE COMBINATIONS OF EXTREME INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST A RISK OF INTENSE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND A FEW TORNADOES. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONGEAL INTO ANOTHER FAST-MOVING BOW ECHO THIS EVENING AND TRACK ACROSS PARTS OF IL/IND. ..HART/MOSIER.. 07/13/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Gonna be fascinating to see how this all plays out. About as explosive as the atmosphere can get with all the parameters involved. How often do we see an upper jet of this magnitude over such extreme instability? Has to be extremely rare. 60-70 kts of effective shear overlapping is pretty absurd with 5000+ J/kg CAPE to work with. ...and SPC 1630z outlook looks even less impressive text wise than earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Extended 10% TOR/hatched probs farther north though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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