TheWeatherPimp Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Sun is coming out and feeling more and more muggy on the South side of Downtown Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 But you need SW flow in that area to recover. And if you look at velocity from DVN, you can see that even with SW sfc flow, there's over 90° of turning in the low-mid levels! People seem to be forgetting that the winds aloft are WNW. We need to treat this as a typical setup turned 45 degrees such that SW winds aren't this kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 sunny and humid as balls here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 But you need SW flow in that area to recover. And if you look at velocity from DVN, you can see that even with SW sfc flow, there's over 90° of turning in the low-mid levels!17z obs show more stations with a SE wind now across northern IL. Let's just say I'm glad I'm out in the field today and not having to make a call for the NWS/SPC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL 1205 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1205 PM CDT MESOSCALE UPDATE... CONCERN REMAINS HIGH FOR SIGNIFICANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE WFO LOT CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LINEAR MCS WHICH MOVED ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING HAD CLEARED THE CWA BY LATE MORNING...LEAVING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY TRAILING FROM EAST CENTRAL IL (BETWEEN CHAMPAIGN AND DECATUR AT 16Z) NORTHWEST TO NEAR THE QUAD CITIES (JUST SOUTH OF MOLINE). WHILE SFC TEMPS WERE 10-15 F COOLER NORTH OF THIS BOUNDARY...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE CWA IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING COMPLEX. IN ADDITION... SFC WINDS HAVE ALREADY VEERED BACK TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA WITH DEW POINTS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE LOW-MID 70S ACROSS OUR WEST. ALL OF THIS STRONGLY SUGGESTS THAT THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE TO RECOVER AND DESTABILIZE...WITH THE COMBINED WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIKELY LIFTING BACK NORTHEAST INTO OUR CWA THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...AS WELL AS 12Z RAOB ANALYSIS...INDICATE SEVERAL MINOR SHORT WAVE DISTURBANCES UPSTREAM FROM NORTHERN IL ACROSS WI/MN...WITH AN 85 KT 300 MB JET STREAK OVER IA. THESE LARGER SCALE FEATURES COMBINED WITH LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY...AND ADDITIONAL LESS ORGANIZED AREAS OF CONVERGENCE IN SMALLER BOUNDARIES OVER WI...SHOULD EASILY SUPPORT INITIATION OF CONVECTION ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON. SATELLITE TRENDS INDICATE SOME CU GROWTH OVER SOUTH CENTRAL WI TO NEAR THE ROCKFORD AREA CURRENTLY...AND ISOLATED STORMS MAY INITIATE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON IN THOSE AREAS...WITH THE WARM FRONT/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY LIKELY BECOMING AN INITIATION FOCUS BY MID AFTERNOON. EXTREME INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPES IN EXCESS OF 4000 J/KG...EFFECTIVE DEEP SHEAR OF 70 KTS...AND STRONG LOW LEVEL SHEAR PARTICULARLY NEAR THE COMPOSITE OUTFLOW/WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALL SUPPORT DISCRETE HP SUPERCELLAR STORMS OR CLUSTERS... WITH THE MAIN SEVERE THREAT LOOKING MORE LIKE HIGH END DAMAGING WINDS...POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONG TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND TORRENTIAL RAINFALL/FLASH FLOODING. IT IS STILL A BIT HARD TO SAY...BUT CORRIDOR WITH THE GREATEST THREAT LOOKS TO BE FROM NORTH CENTRAL IL SOUTHEAST ACROSS EAST CENTRAL IL AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST INDIANA...BUT IT IS STILL TOO CLOSE TO RULE OUT THE THREAT EVEN AS FAR NE AS THE CHICAGO METRO AREA. EVENTUAL UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A BOWING MCS...WITH PRIMARILY A DAMAGING WIND THREAT...LIKELY THIS EVENING TRACKING SOUTHEAST FROM OUR CWA. RATZER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Low level clouds moving north with earnest and mid level clouds moving east imby....not quite the "hauling ass" obs I "like" to see for these setups.... Bluest skies I have seen in weeks (not smoke filled) a few miles to my west Low level thin scuds really moving now out of the south....winds have really kicked up too...out of the S SSW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 What kind of storm mode are we looking at Quincy? Just read the mesoscale update LOT posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 If you look at visible satellite, i'd say the OFB is basically completely gone. LLVL clouds are beginning to move NE over the last hour or so, something that wasn't occurring not that long ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 money update from LOT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Just read the mesoscale update LOT posted. Thanks just read it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Good discussion from LOT, should answer some questions. Also highlights some uncertainty and that Chicago can't be completely ruled out a this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Dangerous day ahead for north central Illinois... especially with HP Supercells likely. Why is large hail not more of a concern? SARS shows that hail could be as large as baseballs, and even maybe some softballs. Also FWIW...as of 16Z STP was already up to 4 in west-central IL near DVN, and SB/MUCAPE in SE IA was up to 6000+J/KG Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 He shouldn't be. No one should be. When you have a closed circ just NW of the region, a bore to mix and destabilize, and no stratiform precip to reinforce the cold pool, rapid T/Td recovery should NOT BE A SURPRISE Seeing is believing. The visible Sat loop depicts nicely the things you pointed out. I'm 60 miles NNE of KIND. MCS came through here roughly around 11am. Can see sunshine poking through the cloud deck off to the NW already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 81/74 in SW wisco KPVB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheWeatherPimp Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Nearly clear skies and full sunshine here on the Southside of Downtown Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jojo762 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 As of 16Z east of DVN... That would be impressive even during 00Z, let alone 16Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 80 on the bank clock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 86/81 at Cedar Rapids. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 High thin clouds from a rain shower north of me are quickly moving out. Sitting at 77/72, but feel that it won't take long for the temp to jump once I am back in full sun, which is likely within the next 20-30 minutes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 If rap analysis is correct on the meso page (17z update) for the SBCAPE at +2 and +4....yikes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Satellite showing impressive clearing well into Indiana. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 SQI up to 79 DP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 80 on the bank clock Fast jump from 69, you still wholesale selling this afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 86/81 at Cedar Rapids. Forgive the non-constructive post, but this meme is proper right about now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Deserves a LMAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 ILX will be doing a 18z or 19z launch...so that should be interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 High thin clouds from a rain shower north of me are quickly moving out. Sitting at 77/72, but feel that it won't take long for the temp to jump once I am back in full sun, which is likely within the next 20-30 minutes Or 5 minutes later. Clouds hauling ass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Fast jump from 69, you still wholesale selling this afternoon? MBY, yes but areas of southern KLOT will get smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Perry Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Forgive the non-constructive post, but this meme is proper right about now... Hahaha yes! Under full sun imby. Temps really warming quickly along with dews. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 MBY, yes but areas of southern KLOT will get smoked. Okay just making sure when your neighborhood gets smoked this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.