Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Stupid question... what would that translate to later on with storms? More low level turning, i.e. increased tornado threat. Even if recovery falls a bit short and model instability is somewhat overdone, there's still going to be strong to extreme instability, and adding more low level shear could make things more dicey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 these are going to be classic mid-summer southern lakes/corn belt HP supercells when they go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 More low level turning, i.e. increased tornado threat. Even if recovery falls a bit short and model instability is somewhat overdone, there's still going to be strong to extreme instability, and adding more low level shear could make things more dicey. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The only problem I have is that people need to understand that the threat is not over and done. The word needs to get out that some severe weather is still possible in Chicagoland (NWS Chicago is doing a great job at that, SPC... eh). I would also definitely give props to Danny Neal as he is making sure people understand that the threat is not gone even thought SPC lowered our risk dramatically. That's what I tried to do with graphic shared on SM, to not back things off in public perception as much with what we put out vs the SPC outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Full sun, blue skies, and 75 degrees, with a DP of 69, Humidity is 79% with winds SE @ 4. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 That's what I tried to do with graphic shared on SM, to not back things off in public perception as much with what we put out vs the SPC outlook. Yup, you guys did a very nice job in doing that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I think from QCA to northern IN and points in between, including at least southwest and south Chicago metro, basically where original 6z outlook had MDT. Thanks for the input. Do you currently think E. central Illinois is to far south for the main threat? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I think it's kinda cool (or maybe I'm dumb ) how the leading edge of the line west of Indy metro is almost perfectly aligned west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Nice shelf cloud approaching me now from the nw here in ne Indpls area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I think it's kinda cool (or maybe I'm dumb ) how the leading edge of the line west of Indy metro is almost perfectly aligned west to east. ind .png the shelf would look cool driving parallel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 That outflow boundary should lose definition/mix out with time, but what I'm interested in is whether the low level winds well north of it are able to flip all the way around prior to convective redevelopment. If not, we could end up with a pretty large area of more southerly flow at the surface instead of southwest. Excellent point, and based off latest ILX scans, seems like OFB is stalling and starting to lose definition some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 these are going to be classic mid-summer southern lakes/corn belt HP supercells when they go Our region does rock. With some help from the crops, there's really not another area of the country that can pull off higher CAPE values. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 I think it's kinda cool (or maybe I'm dumb ) how the leading edge of the line west of Indy metro is almost perfectly aligned west to east. ind .png Nice hook-like feature near Indianapolis. The squall is ~60 miles away from me... bring it. The sooner the better. Starting to get some clearing in NW IN with the 1545z satellite shot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Thanks for the input. Do you currently think E. central Illinois is to far south for the main threat? No, not too far south, meant to say in original post, the corridor I named and points in between and then south of there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 87/77 @ KDEC already Sent from my iPhone 6 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 87/77 @ KDEC already Sent from my iPhone 6 Assuming this is a correct observation, that is pretty absurd for 11 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chase_stormz Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Excellent point, and based off latest ILX scans, seems like OFB is stalling and starting to lose definition some. Do you still see that as being the main focal point for initiation this afternoon and an increased tornado threat with enhanced low level shear? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 As long as the southern Iowa stuff doesn't get too out of control....there will be a nice channel of recovery available From the looks of it at this point... Edit....looks like the cap is starting win out in that location Numerous 70 and + DPs popping up across areas that were fringed this morning in southern wisco and north central - NW il Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The 1300 UTC outlook decision was terrible. Clearing and recovery are well underway, and with mixing from a bore at the western end of the OFB and a closed circulation in SE MN, recovery should be rapid and dramatic. All this morning round did was ensure the metro, especially the S and W metro, has a tremendous reservoir of surface vorticity to tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ClicheVortex2014 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 87/77 @ KDEC already Sent from my iPhone 6 That's insane! The 1300 UTC outlook decision was terrible. Clearing and recovery are well underway, and with mixing from a bore at the western end of the OFB and a closed circulation in SE MN, recovery should be rapid and dramatic. All this morning round did was ensure the metro, especially the S and W metro, has a tremendous reservoir of surface vorticity to tap. Thinking 15% hatched tornado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 52 MPH gust at IND with the line of storms. METAR KIND 131554Z 34031G45KT 1SM R05L/3500VP6000FT +TSRA FEW016 BKN045CB BKN090 OVC150 21/17 A2992 RMK AO2 PK WND 33045/1551 RAB51 TSB46 SLP126 FRQ LTGICCG OHD TS OHD MOV SE P0009 T02060172 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoachLB Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Creeping on me now. Wind is starting to pick up pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 88/80 @ BRL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The 1300 UTC outlook decision was terrible. Clearing and recovery are well underway, and with mixing from a bore at the western end of the OFB and a closed circulation in SE MN, recovery should be rapid and dramatic. All this morning round did was ensure the metro, especially the S and W metro, has a tremendous reservoir of surface vorticity to tap. Was thinking this morning's MCS was just the "right" stength/orientation/timing for more troubles later in parts of LOT...maybe not extreme NE LOT perhaps...but through the heart and points South and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 88/80 @ BRL Was just gonna mention that. First ASOS of the day to break the 80 dew barrier. Won't be the last. Their heat index is already up to 105. Toasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Was thinking this morning's MCS was just the "right" stength/orientation/timing for more troubles later in parts of LOT...maybe not extreme NE LOT perhaps...but through the heart and points South and west It's already back to 82/75 at Sterling and 81/75 at Moline. They better get ready to push the windshield wiper back in the opposite direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 88/80 @ BRL At 11:00 am....wow....dats some shweaty corn in dem dare fields Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Was just gonna mention that. First ASOS of the day to break the 80 dew barrier. Won't be the last. They're heat index is already up to 105. Toasty. yeah, it looks legit, numerous others knocking on the door already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 The 1300 UTC outlook decision was terrible. Clearing and recovery are well underway, and with mixing from a bore at the western end of the OFB and a closed circulation in SE MN, recovery should be rapid and dramatic. All this morning round did was ensure the metro, especially the S and W metro, has a tremendous reservoir of surface vorticity to tap. While I've maintained south and west was the way to go, I think that where the moderate/enhanced risk is at now seems to extreme in that direction. I would expect in the next update for that axis to shift east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted July 13, 2015 Share Posted July 13, 2015 Excellent point, and based off latest ILX scans, seems like OFB is stalling and starting to lose definition some. I mean, at some point, you don't really need more instability. Going to throw some random numbers out there but you could argue that 4000 J/kg CAPE with decent low level shear is more ominous than 6000 J/kg CAPE with lesser shear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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