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andyhb

May 15th-16th Severe Events

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The 14Z and 15Z HRRR runs have started ramping back up the "I-44" supercells again from SPS to OKC late this afternoon into the evening hours. Norman will be launching a 18Z sounding. 

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Really liking where that moisture convergence bullseye is setting up on the good side of the theta-e axis across the TX PH, say SW of Shamrock to Childress.

Upstream of there, the mesoanalysis currently shows 2000 J/kg MLCAPE and 3500 J/kg SBCAPE. I think they'll trim the northern portion of the MDT risk. Maybe a slight southward extension into NW TX?

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Not too much change.. kept pretty much all of original KS area in the 15%.

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Not too much change...kept pretty much all of original KS area in the 15%.

Given that SPC held the 15% for all of KS and only slightly trimmed the NE portion of the MDT, my sense is that the main factor precluding a High Risk is concerns/uncertainties over wind profiles toward late afternoon/evening, not instability. That leaves open the possibility that a High Risk could verify for parts of OK/N TX, especially since the trough appears to be verifying a bit broader (not as sharp) than past runs of the GFS suggested. HRRR and RAP are fairly consistent in indicating that the wind profiles will improve further toward and after dusk as the LLJ strengthens over OK/N TX. Special 18Z soundings could give the SPC the data it needs to go High later in the day (20Z).

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Given that SPC held the 15% for all of KS and only slightly trimmed the NE portion of the MDT, my sense is that the main factor precluding a High Risk is concerns/uncertainties over wind profiles toward late afternoon/evening, not instability. That leaves open the possibility that a High Risk could verify for parts of OK/N TX.

Not sure I follow.. wouldn't be surprised if a zone ended up verifying high risk if things work out but still not quite your quintessential high risk setup IMO. Given where the main vortmax is scheduled to pass later, keeping KS in the 15% seems fairly logical even if it's not perfect. Post 1630z upgrades aren't super common.. they do happen tho. In the end the risk from SPC doesn't even really matter that much toward what it ends up being.

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Not sure I follow.. wouldn't be surprised if a zone ended up verifying high risk if things work out but still not quite your quintessential high risk setup IMO. Given where the main vortmax is scheduled to pass later, keeping KS in the 15% seems fairly logical even if it's not perfect. Post 1630z upgrades aren't super common.. they do happen tho. In the end the risk from SPC doesn't even really matter that much toward what it ends up being.

 

Definitely NOT a high risk with all the VBV issues and the blob over KS for sure. It would take an ongoing outbreak for them to upgrade at this point.

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Reed with his over-exuberance already. Wonder how many Reed-wedges show up.

 

 

 

I mean, the guy has to realize how ridiculous he is sometimes. He has a PhD, so I refuse to believe that he's not self-aware of what he does lol.

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Definitely NOT a high risk with all the VBV issues and the blob over KS for sure. It would take an ongoing outbreak for them to upgrade at this point.

 

So the blob over KS affects OK where I) the forcing will support supercells more vs. KS, II) instability will likely be a non-issue, III) upper level wind profiles will be less VBV and IV) where observations continue to show notably backed surface winds.

 

Oh and V) where there's an OFB set up to potentially enhance supercells in the northern part of the state.

 

That cell in TX already is trying to develop a RFD and has a pretty solid inflow notch for this early.

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So the blob over KS affects OK where I) the forcing will support supercells more vs. KS, II) instability will likely be a non-issue, III) upper level wind profiles will be less VBV and IV) where observations continue to show notably backed surface winds.

 

Oh and V) where there's an OFB set up to potentially enhance supercells in the northern part of the state.

 

That cell in TX already is trying to develop an RFD and has a pretty solid inflow notch for this early.

 

For what they are worth, RAP soundings still show significant VBV in OK later today. I'm not saying there's no chance of a major event today, but it's difficult to have enough confidence in a High Risk at this time with all the caveats mentioned.

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Plume of 7.5-8+ C/km mid level lapse rates over NW/north central TX and SW OK per mesoanalysis.

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According to NWS Norman Twitter, they're now in a call with SPC for the issuance of the tornado watch. Should see that soon.

 

Sneak preview of the watch:

 

post-384-0-54977400-1431798628_thumb.jpg

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The environment for SW Oklahoma later this afternoon/early evening looks to be very juiced up. Not just model guidance, but just looking at upstream observations and satellite imagery. Pretty strong probability I'd say for at least one significant tornado in that area, particularly between about I-35 to near or just north of I-40.

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A lot of the main threat area is still under tons of convective debris/general clouds. Some good air close by to push in later but it's getting kinda late to see all that still on sat. Last few HRRR are kinda not too intense looking in SW OK at least.

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Last few HRRR are kinda not too intense looking in SW OK at least.

Still multiple frames/hours with STP >10. Guess not as extreme as a previous run.

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Still multiple frames/hours with STP >10. Guess not as extreme as a previous run.

Might be just that it fires storms near the red river that eat all the good stuff in the region. I don't really ever look at STP except maybe in mesoanalysis. :P

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Instability was too high on previous HRRR runs, but now it looks too low on the latest over much of OK. The 17Z run shows less instability over southern OK and the Llano Estacado at 18Z than has actually proved to be the case. Anywhere where cloud cover is thinning out is likely to match or exceed model output regarding instability.

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