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May 15th-16th Severe Events


andyhb

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Seeing a lot of VBV wind profiles with Saturday on the 00z NAM, although the instability appears to have improved. The trough needs to broaden a bit and/or the ridging downstream needs to be a bit less amplified to keep the mid/upper flow more southwesterly and eliminate that kink in the hodograph around 700 mb.

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Really have to wonder about storm initiation today, even near the triple point. Yet another event this season that seemingly had big potential, but became less and less interesting leading up. Making my way up eastern Colorado later today. Those in central/eastern Nebraska may not see much at all, but maybe I'm wrong.

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Really have to wonder about storm initiation today, even near the triple point. Yet another event this season that seemingly had big potential, but became less and less interesting leading up. Making my way up eastern Colorado later today. Those in central/eastern Nebraska may not see much at all, but maybe I'm wrong.

 

? There will almost certainly be storm initiation near the triple point (which is right up against the high terrain).  Looks like a pretty decent setup for SE WY / NW NE.

 

Best way to alleviate questions about convective initiation is to plow convectively unstable flow into mountains

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Yeah I wouldn't worry too much about storms forming.. more about them congealing or messing out. Pine Bluffs or so seems like a logical starting point.. SW NE favored.. moving into NW NE with time. South of the NE/CO border got some big spreads on t/td.. need to be close to WF.

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We are on the way to Nebraska currently...models seem to be struggling on CI in the heart of the state a little further east, possibly from the lack of convergence which makes sense...obviously the upslope play will go early and should be okay but we can't get there and would take us out of position for tomorrow...which looks quite scary for srn KS down to CDS/LAW area.

 

Will continue to push west to Kearney/North Platte, hoping storms can go in extreme northeast CO and push our way.

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The HRRR runs this morning show a fairly messy situation for SE Wyoming this afternoon-- too many showers and thunderstorms.

Yep. Poorly worded on my part. Questionable initiation along the dryline and messy storm mode (lack of discrete storm initiation) near the surface low combine to yield a low confidence/iffy setup today.
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Tomorrow's a tough forecast.  You can't just take what happened last weekend and automatically apply it here.  The upper-level flow pattern is likely going to retard eastward motion of early convection.  Any significant eastward propagation will be due to cold pool propagation.  This may act in limiting the amount of area that needs to recover by late afternoon.  If the warm sector is in good shape, then tomorrow has the potential to get really ugly from central KS down into western OK.  But, as has been beaten like a dead horse, that's a big if.

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Really have to wonder about storm initiation today, even near the triple point. Yet another event this season that seemingly had big potential, but became less and less interesting leading up. Making my way up eastern Colorado later today. Those in central/eastern Nebraska may not see much at all, but maybe I'm wrong.

You could have lunch with me.

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I'm not driving anywhere if it is just going to be boring rain or weak thunderstorms. Previously I was thinking of sitting around east of Cheyenne at a gas station on I-80 and looking at the sky. I have cancelled that idea, until further notice.

 

One time, a couple of years ago, I drove out east of Greeley and Kersey to see if I could get close to a reasonably interesting thunderstorm. Near Kersey, there is cattle/sheep yard that was 1.5 miles long that smells pretty bad... I'm hoping not to repeat that experience too soon.

 

Note. I am seeing the Denver cyclone set up with a surface circulation north of DIA (Adams/Weld Co). It's all in the 50's with dew points around 48. There's no extremely dry area, as of yet.

 

Pine Bluffs WY has 100% humidity. You don't see that too much on the high plains if it isn't snowing.

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I'm not driving anywhere if it is just going to be boring rain or weak thunderstorms. Previously I was thinking of sitting around east of Cheyenne at a gas station on I-80 and looking at the sky. I have cancelled that idea, until further notice.

 

Note. I am seeing the Denver cyclone set up with a surface circulation north of DIA (Adams/Weld Co). It's all in the 50's with dew points around 48. There's no extremely dry area, as of yet.

 

With the HRRR hinting at a palmer divide initiation, and the denver cyclone setting up, I may consider driving southeast toward Greeley (or a little bit south) to catch any supercells moving NE off the high terrain.

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The lower temps/dews didn't seem to deter things last Saturday. Factor in upslope with good wind shear, a bit of instability and a developing surface low in NE Colorado and that seems to get the job done. I stayed in Lamar and am heading north now, so it's go big or go home. Nicely backed winds near the CO/NE border. I'll let it play out and see. It could be a junky mess or more upslope magic. Some of you guys know the local influences and climo much better. Just going off what I've observed so far this season in the area.

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The lower temps/dews didn't seem to deter things last Saturday.

These dew points on the high plains are pretty above normal. Combine that with the 500mb cold temps, and you have 2000 J/kg of CAPE in northeast Colorado, even before noon.

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1730Z update came in... For the first time mentioned intense long-lived supercells, with very large hail and strong tornadoes... Expanded the ENH risked as well.. Also mentions that the large scale pattern (as you would expect) favors a more substantial severe weather outbreak than currently depicted by the outlook. And fwiw, this wasn't Broyles so it wasn't trigger happy. Sorry can't post the graphics or discussion, on my phone.

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We are on the way to Nebraska currently...models seem to be struggling on CI in the heart of the state a little further east, possibly from the lack of convergence which makes sense...obviously the upslope play will go early and should be okay but we can't get there and would take us out of position for tomorrow...which looks quite scary for srn KS down to CDS/LAW area.

Will continue to push west to Kearney/North Platte, hoping storms can go in extreme northeast CO and push our way.

Safe travels TSnow....i wish you the best of luck on your trip!

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I'm going to head to OKC this evening.  Considered waiting till tomorrow morning to leave CS but honestly I don't know what info I'd have tomorrow morning that I don't have now.  The real info won't come until later in the day when we see what the situation is out further west and from OKC I can reach a lot more of the dryline.

 

I am convinced that there will areas, if not the entire dry line, where instability is high enough to get things going so I'd rather be in a position to reach as much of that dry line as possible.

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Denver Cyclone is a good play today. ENH area is over a crazy road network and the Sand Hills of Nebraska. Denver Cyclone play also permits easy access back toward Saturday area. Well at least it is a little closer and one can fly east on I-70 this evening. Adams and Arapohoe Counties already severe warned. Classic!

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