Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Destabilization is slow to occur in central nc because of the cloud deck but eastern nc is rapidly increasing with the sunshine, cape values already getting to 3500 per mesoanalysis Maybe they should shift that enhanced threat east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 TWC has the area at a TORCON of 4, afternoon should be fun to watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 I never said the watches failed. I said they were warranted at the time. Just that I have not had a severe storm personally during a watch this year. Just thought it was funny that I have had the biggest storms without a watch. I would think the big storms would come during a watch, when the conditions are supposed to be favorable for them, even if they are not severe. But that has not been the case so far for me personally. Not dogging the forecasters, I just think it is funny it has turned out that way. I feel like I am not explaining it well or something, so I will just drop it and see what today brings. It isn't necessarily what you say. It's how many times you say it, and say it, and say it, and say it........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
featherwx Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 TWC has the area at a TORCON of 4, afternoon should be fun to watch unfold. For what area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 86 with a 75 DP and sun that is flitered from time to time by developing CU, there is a 10 degree temp difference between PGV and RDU currently.....lots of boundries out there and with all the stuff coming together I think we see some nasty stuff today, there one caveat will be if it gets to clustered early that will kill the discrete cells chances of getting organized and severe if they are all choking each other off, the squall in the afternoon may be the main show as far as severe goes.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 27, 2015 Author Share Posted June 27, 2015 Heading to E NC.. Not willing to miss out on some good structure shots today .. Should be fun. Any soundings posted would be greatly appreciated. Second line will be the main show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Tons of clouds here. This will definitely hinder destabilization. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Tons of clouds here. This will definitely hinder destabilization.Yeah, I don't care what the forecast is. Stratiform clouds into late morning always mean no storms to me in the evening. Also, after two nights of big storms, I have trouble expecting a third. Final nail in the coffin: moderate risk with a flood watch. Pretty much guarantees we won't see a drop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Tons of clouds here. This will definitely hinder destabilization. I was thinking the same thing. More sun in eastern NC. I wonder if they will shift the enhanced area to there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Yeah, I don't care what the forecast is. Stratiform clouds into late morning always mean no storms to me in the evening. Just passed through a shower on the way to Cary, too. Hard to tell if there are any high level clouds. Every now and then there is a break in the stratiform layer and the sun pokes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 I don't know what I'm missing here, but I don't understand why we are being forecast to have widespread storms/severe weather in the upstate. Just took a look at mesoanalysis and it is not that impressive. Radar looks like crap, it's cloudy, and I doubt we destabalize that much. 4k NAM says absolutely nothing in the upstate. HRRR doesn't look any different than it has the last couple days. Just some scattered convection moving through. What am I missing here? Obvisouly it is something otherwise we wouldn't be near the enhanced threat or have 80% pops from GSP today and tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Just drove threw my dads neighborhood located about a mile from the Air Station here in Jville and there are numerous large tree limbs down, he said last night out of no where the wind just started blasting; they were put under a warning about the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 First the front doesn't need much help forcing a severe line of storms, sure more instability matters but in the end then the main squall forms it will have more than enough to work with, even in the cloudy less unstable regions to produce severe conditions.....I would bet the best chances for discrete cells is eastern NC after 3pm as the forcing ahead of the front begins to work in.....however given the overall unstable nature of the airmass it wont take much to get it going. That area moving NE out of SC into eastern NC however is working into some really unstable air and could form a small mcs and any discrete cell out in front could rotate helicities are slowly coming up and we see some winds going SE....I wouldn't be surprised to see the SPC do a mesoscale disco on eastern NC soon followed by a STW/TOR watch I got 3000 scape and 2000 mcape LI -6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCsandhills Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Sun is definitely out in RTP..blue patches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Just checked the IR loop and it looks like the clouds are thinning...at least on my small mobile screen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 sun starting to peek out here, clouds breaking up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Clouds burning off here. Starting to see blue sky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Heading to E NC.. Not willing to miss out on some good structure shots today .. Should be fun. Any soundings posted would be greatly appreciated. Second line will be the main show. You better haul ass lol, its a solid 5 hrs to get to I 95, if ya get this far east let me know.....I know all the roads and good areas to view long distances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hvward Posted June 27, 2015 Author Share Posted June 27, 2015 You better haul ass lol, its a solid 5 hrs to get to I 95, if ya get this far east let me know.....I know all the roads and good areas to view long distances. Thanks yeah was debating and waiting to see if my chase partner was a go, also popped my shoukd out Thursday but I am a good hour in and should be near rocky mt around 4. What is the best road for a view movinf east from that area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Mesoscale analyses aren't bad. CAPE has been increasing steadily this morning and PWATs are nearing 2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Sun trying to come out here, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 I was thinking the same thing. More sun in eastern NC. I wonder if they will shift the enhanced area to there. We've actually got some good cloud coverage in eastern part of the state...or my area does anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AJF0602 Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Interested to see the trends in that complex in SE NC in the next hour or so, looks like its gaining some momentum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Wonder if RAH is going to do an update today or just catch us next time? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Just checked the IR loop and it looks like the clouds are thinning...at least on my small mobile screen.It's hard to get a good look on that iPhone -3 you have! It's very humid here today and sun is out, but I have to lean with a dry fropa today! Y'all easy of CLT , enjoy your tornados Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 We've actually got some good cloud coverage in eastern part of the state...or my area does anyway. That is a lot more sun than here. Very overcast here but thin clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 It's hard to get a good look on that iPhone -3 you have! It's very humid here today and sun is out, but I have to lean with a dry fropa today! Y'all easy of CLT , enjoy your tornados Yeah, my antenna keeps getting in the way of the Java loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 That is a lot more sun than here. Very overcast here but thin clouds. Temp up to 80 at Noon. Bet it will be 85 at 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Interested to see the trends in that complex in SE NC in the next hour or so, looks like its gaining some momentum. Yeah the timing is nice will be here during peak heating looks like some smaller discretes trying to fire as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.