kvegas-wx Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Sun is out in the triad. Temp ramping up. A couple of hours of good sun should get us into the low to mid 80's. Now its just a matter of where the firing line sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Updated... smaller part of SC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 ...MID ATLANTIC REGION INTO THE CAROLINAS... MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES...WITH SEVERAL WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS EMBEDDED IN THE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER FLOW OVER THE TN/OH VALLEYS INTO THE APPALACHIANS. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW IS ANALYZED OVER OH WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO PARTS OF KY/TN. THE AIR MASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IS QUITE MOIST AND WITH DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S...BUT WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER IS LIMITING HEATING SO FAR TODAY. THESE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON...LEADING TO AT LEAST MODERATE CAPE VALUES FROM CENTRAL VA SOUTHWARD. PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT STORMS WILL INTENSIFY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM CENTRAL/EASTERN WV SOUTHWARD INTO WRN VA/NC BY EARLY AFTERNOON. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD QUICKLY EASTWARD AND CONGEAL INTO ONE OR MORE SEGMENTED LINEAR MCS/S. RATHER STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY WILL POSE A RISK OF WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG THIS LINE AS IT TRACKS ACROSS THE ENH RISK AREA. A WARM FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS PARTS OF NRN VA/MD INTO THE WV PANHANDLE. BACKED LOW LEVEL WINDS IN VICINITY OF THIS BOUNDARY IS RESULTING IN VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES QUITE FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS AND PERHAPS TORNADOES LATER TODAY. A FEW OF THE COMPLICATING FACTORS INCLUDE THE EXTENT THAT CLOUD COVER WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION IN THIS ZONE...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR NUMEROUS STORMS TO INTERFERE WITH ONE ANOTHER AND DISRUPT LOW LEVEL CIRCULATIONS. NEVERTHELESS HAVE MAINTAINED THE AREA OF ENHANCED TORNADO PROBABILITIES OVER PARTS OF THIS AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Here is a very broad view of all of the interactions happening today as part of the larger trough-lows complex. I didn't leave the map visible through the satellite layer due to how the front and low affecting us stands out clearly. Definitely do visit preview.weather.gov/edd for a place to view transcontinental stitched satellite images wtih an archive of about 36 hrs! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT SUMMARY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ACROSS MUCH OF SERN VA BY 18-19Z WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT INCREASINGLY SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND A FEW TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEARING OVER PARTS OF ERN VA AND ESPECIALLY NC WITH A VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IN PLACE. SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL ADD TO THE DESTABILIZATION VIA THETA-E ADVECTION ACROSS THE REGION AND FARTHER N INTO MD LATE THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEEPENS TO THE W...LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BACK AND STRENGTHEN FURTHER...WHICH WILL MAINTAIN FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL SRH ALONG THE DIFFUSE WARM FRONT FOR SUPERCELLS AND TORNADOES GIVEN AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SEVERE STORM COVERAGE ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL BE ISOLATED. HOWEVER...STORMS THAT DO FULLY TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE EXISTING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WHILST HAVING INFLOW ROOTED IN THE HIGHER-CAPE AIR MASS WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE TORNADOES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 RAH Disco... THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN THE THINKING REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE STRENGTHENING MID LEVEL FLOW WILL RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY HAS BEEN RETARDED BY WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS THIS MORNING BUT WE EXPECT THE SUN TO BREAK OUT AT TIMES AND PRODUCE MODERATE INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE VALUES RANGING BETWEEN 1500-2500 J/KG. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MARGINAL HOWEVER AND WILL RANGE (5.5-6.0 C/KM). THE SPC MAINTAINS THE ELEVATED SEVERE WEATHER THREAT TODAY WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS RESULTING FROM TO DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW...MODERATE TO STRONG UPDRAFTS AND PRECIPITATION LOADING. HAIL IS ALSO A THREAT GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS IN SUPERCELLS. THE TORNADO RISK IS SMALL BUT EXISTS GENERALLY CLOSE TO THE VA BORDER IN CLOSER VICINITY TO THE ENHANCED LOW LEVEL SHEAR NEAR A NORTHWARD ADVANCING WARM FRONT. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS THE WEST AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT IN THE EAST. ANTICIPATING THE EVOLUTION OF THE CONVECTION AND REFINING MANY DETAILS IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF RAINFALL IS PROBLEMATIC. HOWEVER THERE IS STILL A SUFFICIENT POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN GIVEN PW VALUES OF 1.9 TO 2.0 INCHES. THIS COMBINED WITH THE CONVECTION LIKELY OCCURRING IN MULTIPLE ROUNDS WARRANTS MAINTAINING THE WATCH. -BLAES Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 There is agreement between NAM, GFS, CMC, HRRR that the upstate will not see any significant rainfall or storms. I really doubt we see anything other than scattered storms. The models certainly aren't close to even showing any upscale organized convection here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 There is agreement between NAM, GFS, CMC, HRRR that the upstate will not see any significant rainfall or storms. I really doubt we see anything other than scattered storms. The models certainly aren't close to even showing any upscale organized convection here.GSP seems to disagree with your assessment and the short range models haven't been good for sh!t lately! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 GSP update Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 GSP seems to disagree with your assessment and the short range models haven't been good for sh!t lately! I agree that the short range models have been pretty bad for our area. However, I don't think you can ignore the fact that the forecast is going against every model out there. You would think there would be a least some model support for this scenario. I guess we will see how it plays out. I think further east has a much higher chance of seeing something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 270615.png Here is a very broad view of all of the interactions happening today as part of the larger trough-lows complex. I didn't leave the map visible through the satellite layer due to how the front and low affecting us stands out clearly. Definitely do visit preview.weather.gov/edd for a place to view transcontinental stitched satellite images wtih an archive of about 36 hrs! Without a geographical overlay, that map is nearly useless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Sounds like everything is still on track for severe storms according to RAH. Looks like most of the action could be in VA, though. Very warm and humid out now even without much sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Storming at the house now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Well, I was getting ready to go out and mow the lawn. Looks like Wake is right on the line with that watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 I don't know why we need a watch!? Shetley said no storms today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Meh that area lifting up across eastern NC is lame, to much moisture at the surface killing us, no chance for individual cells to get going limits the chances of getting a good storm..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Little meh storm at the house. Some moderate rain with a few thunderclaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 The clouds are really breaking up to my north and west. Nothing but blue skies to the northwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 The clouds are really breaking up to my north and west. Nothing but blue skies to the northwest. Look SW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Nice tropical thundershower in progress. Very heavy when it started, slacked off some now. .22" in 20 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Stormier than I thought with this mess moving in, plenty of T&L and decent winds nothing severe but its more intense than the radar indicates....I am also on the eastern side of Pitt Co and the returns are strengthening on this side.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 tornado warning for brunswick county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 The clouds are really breaking up to my north and west. Nothing but blue skies to the northwest. ...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WAKE COUNTY UNTIL345 PM EDT...AT 241 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR NEW HILL...OR 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CARY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...RALEIGH...CARY...WAKE FOREST...GARNER...FUQUAY-VARINA...ZEBULON...RDUINTERNATIONAL...APEX...HOLLY SPRINGS AND MORRISVILLE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Hearing thunder now. Sky right above my house is all blue. Better finish this yardwork. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Strong wind and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Constant rumbles of thunder to my southwest now. It's coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
No snow for you Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Something wrong with the radar imby. I see green and other colors on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Constant rumbles of thunder to my southwest now. It's coming. Quit playing around on your phone and finish mowing before you get hit by lightening! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 27, 2015 Share Posted June 27, 2015 Wow! Loudest thunder I have heard all year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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