Hvward Posted June 28, 2015 Author Share Posted June 28, 2015 New cells firing south of Raleigh lol....the air mass was loaded that's for sure. Doubt they get severe but to see them fire in a area that's been worked over like 3 times is impressive.I was impressed by the recovery S of Durham today after that first cell went through. I chose to go N because it was an untapped environment. Was interesting to see nonetheless.Finished my night off with sheetz though so it was way worth it. We dont have those in the mountains! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Here's my chase summary: I didn't leave until I noticed a storm becoming supercellular NW of Sanford. I was on the way toward Lillington from my house in Johnston County by the time it got warned. Because I go to Sanford all the time to visit my grandparents, I was familiar with the chase area and knew it was pointless to go west of Lillington toward US-1 bypass due to major forest in the area. I tried to get closer by going north of Lillington toward Fuquay-Varina, but trees were too thick there so I backtracked back into Angier. I knew open fields were located there, so I found a spot and let the storm pass to my north. Here's slightly cleaner shot of Sanford-Angier supercell from my DSLR. I ran into problem of my camera fogging up, so it wasn't the sharpest... but it did the job. In excitement, I forgot to zoom out my lens completely to capture more of wall cloud but that's what iPhone was for just in case humidity blurred my camera too much. So, I captured my first ever lightning shot, got nailed by quarter-size hail (PR for biggest), a shot of lightning storm with moon in the background, and now this picture... what an incredible week of weather IMBY! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calm_days Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Without a geographical overlay, that map is nearly useless. Yes, the EDD only offers the capacity to reduce the transparency of the satellite imagery leading to reduced clairty of both the map and sat. It is more relevant, and, much easier to see today now that the low and front in the middle Atlantic, along the larger trough has developed, that some of the development of the system may have been due to the characteristics of the TUTT interactions overall. the middle Atlantic system looks very similar to ours that is just offshore, except with less convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 445 PM EDT SUN JUN 28 2015 ...TORNADO CONFIRMED NEAR CUMNOCK IN LEE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA... LOCATION...CUMNOCK IN LEE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA DATE...06-27-2015 ESTIMATED TIME...546 PM EDT MAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1 ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...105 MPH MAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...75 YARDS PATH LENGTH...COUPLE MILES * FATALITIES...0 * INJURIES...0 * THE INFORMATION IN THIS STATEMENT IS PRELIMINARY AND SUBJECT TO CHANGE PENDING FINAL REVIEW OF THE EVENT(S) AND PUBLICATION IN NWS STORM DATA. ...SUMMARY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN RALEIGH NC HAS CONFIRMED A TORNADO NEAR CUMNOCK IN LEE COUNTY NORTH CAROLINA ON 06-27-2015. MORE DETAILS WILL BE PROVIDED SHORTLY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 Ed Piotrowski WPDE added 2 new photos. 14 mins · The tornado warning issued for Robeson county was no doubt a good call. The National Weather Service in Wilmington, NC confirms a supercell (rotating) thunderstorm produced two tornadoes in Robeson county Saturday evening. Thank God for no injuries or deaths. Here are the details: TORNADO #1LOCATION...RAYNHAM IN ROBESON COUNTY, NCESTIMATED TIME...823 PM EDTMAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90 MPHMAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...175 YARDSPATH LENGTH...1 MILEFATALITIES...0INJURIES...0 A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF US HIGHWAY 301 AND NORTH CHICKEN ROAD AND TRAVELED APPROXIMATELY 1 MILE. THE TORNADO SNAPPED 20 LARGE PINE AND HARDWOOD TREES AND TORE THE ROOF OFF OF SEVERAL BARNS. ALSO...1 EMPTY FERTILIZER SILO WAS OVERTURNED...AND 1 PIECE OF FARM EQUIPMENT WAS DESTROYED. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TORNADO #2LOCATION...LUMBERTON IN ROBESON COUNTY, NCESTIMATED TIME...845 PM EDTMAXIMUM EF-SCALE RATING...EF1ESTIMATED MAXIMUM WIND SPEED...90 MPHMAXIMUM PATH WIDTH...25 YARDSPATH LENGTH...100 YARDSFATALITIES...0INJURIES...0 A TORNADO TOUCHED DOWN IN THE ALLENTON COMMUNITY JUST EAST OF LUMBERTON ON HIGHWAY 211. THE TORNADO UPROOTED A HEALTHY 100 YEAR OLD 3 FOOT DIAMETER PECAN TREE ALONG WITH 4 OTHER SMALLER OAK TREES...AND CAUSED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE TO A HOME AS THE PECAN TREE PUNCTURED THE HOMES ROOF. THIS TORNADO WAS SPAWNED FROM THE SAME SUPERCELL THUNDERSTORM THAT PRODUCED A TORNADO 14 MILES TO THE WEST IN RAYNHAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I wonder if the SPC will explain why they didn't have a watch of some kind for more of NC yesterday? Biggest severe outbreak of the year for the state and no watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted June 28, 2015 Share Posted June 28, 2015 I wonder if the SPC will explain why they didn't have a watch of some kind for more of NC yesterday? Biggest severe outbreak of the year for the state and no watch. No. Please give it a rest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 Ah pretty upset with myself, had a decision to make whether to head towards Dansville or back down towards Pittsboro and chose the wrong cell when I stopped in Stem, NC. Chose to go north and that was so stupid. Had time to get down to that warned cell. Caught some nice scud lifting and rotating feom the ground but dont think it was anything more than that. It was a hell of a storm S of martinsville though. Oh well the woes of chasing. At least I didnt wreck or get a ticket so today was a win haha. I caught some rain showers on my way home from chasing a dying thunderstorm in Danville. Then missed the Martinsville storm that evening because I already headed north. Oh well -- Bad chasing day for me as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shaggy Posted June 29, 2015 Share Posted June 29, 2015 I've yet to experience a severe storm this year. Had one get close to severe here at work one day and the airport which is a mile or so away had a gust to 44mph with it but only that one storm all year has come close to verifying severe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 ...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING... THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE MOUNTAINS AND TRACK EAST INTO THE TRIAD AND WESTERN PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP NEAR THE TRIANGLE THIS EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED DISTURBANCE TRACKS EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE...WITH A PRIMARY THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND WEST OF THE HIGHWAY 1 CORRIDOR BETWEEN 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON AND 11 PM THIS EVENING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 I hope they issue a watch for Brick! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Hi res model, shows lots of storms aroun GSP to CAE, early to mid afternoon and the storms die before they get to the triad! (: Maybe y'all can get some storms tomorrow !? Today is a WNC and upstate day and down to buckeye town! It's about time since we are officially under drought conditions now, per TWC and Jim Cantore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 US National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC added 4 new photos. 34 mins · A band of thunderstorms is forecast to develop along the east facing slopes of the Appalachians and across northern Georgia by mid-afternoon. Shortly after developing, these storms should move quickly east across the foothills and Piedmont of the Carolinas and northeast Georgia. Through mid-evening, the environment across the region will likely support several severe thunderstorms, producing damaging wind gusts. In addition, frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy downpours may occur with any storm. Details: http://www.weather.gov/gsp/brief_svr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 SPC says: ...DEEP SOUTH... THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF CONVECTION TODAY IS EXPECTED S OF ONGOING TSTMS ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH/TN VALLEY ALONG A LEAD/WEAK FRONT. S OF THIS BOUNDARY OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY LIES A RICHLY BUOYANT AIR MASS CHARACTERIZED BY PW VALUES OF 1.75-2.00 INCH PER GPS DATA/EVENING RAOBS. WITH PREDOMINANT WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW SUPPORTING EWD TRANSPORT OF THIS AIR MASS IN CONJUNCTION WITH ADVECTION OF MODERATELY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES FROM THE SRN PLAINS...MODERATE TO STRONG BUOYANCY SHOULD DEVELOP BY EARLY AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF LINGERING MORNING CONVECTION. MODERATE 700-500 MB WLYS SHOULD FOSTER SEVERAL MULTICELL CLUSTERS WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND SPORADIC HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 I hope they issue a watch for Brick! They only do that when we don't get any big storms. I did not expect to see us in the slight chance today. Funny how RAH loves to use US 1 as the boundary and I am right off US 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Not looking especially severe parameter wise in NC, somewhat better in GA and SC....PWATS are below 1.5" and cape is there but 1500 or less but there is some shear so who knows......some days you can get severe with crappy parameters and some days parameters can be through the roof and ya get meh storms or nada. Most of NC wont see much and east of RDU most likely wont see anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Not looking especially severe parameter wise in NC, somewhat better in GA and SC....PWATS are below 1.5" and cape is there but 1500 or less but there is some shear so who knows......some days you can get severe with crappy parameters and some days parameters can be through the roof and ya get meh storms or nada. Most of NC wont see much and east of RDU most likely wont see anything. Ain't that the truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE FOR WS 373 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 135 PM EDT TUE JUN 30 2015 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 373 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 900 PM EDT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS SCC001-007-021-023-045-047-059-073-077-083-087-091-010100- /O.NEW.KWNS.SV.A.0373.150630T1735Z-150701T0100Z/ SC . SOUTH CAROLINA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ABBEVILLE ANDERSON CHEROKEE CHESTER GREENVILLE GREENWOOD LAURENS OCONEE PICKENS SPARTANBURG UNION YORK $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF VA...CNTRL/ERN NC...NRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 301738Z - 302015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE SVR RISK WILL ALSO INCREASE...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD INSOLATION CONTINUES TO BREED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION...WHERE POCKETS OF CUMULUS BUILD-UPS HAVE BEEN NOTED PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INVOF A WEAK LEE TROUGH. STRONG HEATING OF THE MOIST PBL CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE/UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING IN PLACE...CONVECTION MAY DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA /1/ AS PBL CIRCULATIONS STRENGTHEN.../2/ ASCENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES...AND /3/ DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES ON THE FRINGES OF NWRN-VA REMNANT CLOUDS FACILITATE BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS. THE AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS...WITH AROUND 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALLOWING CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE INTO QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS -- EVENTUALLY SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN. DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ESPECIALLY IN EARLIER AND MORE CELLULAR PHASES OF CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT COULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA. REGARDLESS...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..COHEN/HART.. 06/30/2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 You think they'll actually issue a watch? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Moonhowl Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 You think they'll actually issue a watch? Well, they have for my neck of the woods. Severe Thunderstorm Watch in effect from June 30, 01:35 PM EDT until June 30, 09:00 PM EDT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Tstorm warning ! .05 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
downeastnc Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 mcd1244.gif MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1244 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1238 PM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF VA...CNTRL/ERN NC...NRN SC CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 301738Z - 302015Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AND ORGANIZE ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND EVENTUALLY SPREAD TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN. THE SVR RISK WILL ALSO INCREASE...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS POSSIBLE. DISCUSSION...WIDESPREAD INSOLATION CONTINUES TO BREED DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE PIEDMONT REGION...WHERE POCKETS OF CUMULUS BUILD-UPS HAVE BEEN NOTED PER VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INVOF A WEAK LEE TROUGH. STRONG HEATING OF THE MOIST PBL CHARACTERIZED BY MIDDLE/UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS IS SUPPORTING MLCAPE AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG. WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CAPPING IN PLACE...CONVECTION MAY DEEPEN ACROSS THE AREA /1/ AS PBL CIRCULATIONS STRENGTHEN.../2/ ASCENT ALONG THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES...AND /3/ DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES ON THE FRINGES OF NWRN-VA REMNANT CLOUDS FACILITATE BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS. THE AFOREMENTIONED BUOYANCY WILL SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS...WITH AROUND 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR ALLOWING CONVECTION TO ORGANIZE INTO QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS -- EVENTUALLY SPREADING TOWARD THE COASTAL PLAIN. DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH MARGINALLY SVR HAIL ESPECIALLY IN EARLIER AND MORE CELLULAR PHASES OF CONVECTION. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TIMING OF MORE ROBUST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION OF UPSTREAM CONVECTION THAT COULD EVENTUALLY SPREAD INTO THE AREA. REGARDLESS...TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBLE ISSUANCE OF A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH. ..COHEN/HART.. 06/30/2015 Ya know I was shocked as hell to see this lol......lots of low level lapse rates but everything else other than shear is just meh, but strong shear can work wonders if you can get the storms going.....this could be one of those days where the line forms N and W of the Triad and badasses its way all the way to the coast......its been so long since I have seen that though, but if you can get a good enough line going there is a chance I guess....it would be late here 8pm or later I think before anything got to PGV..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sparklecity Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Tstorm warning ! .05 so far 0.00 and looks to stay that way. Maybe shetley gets this one. That area north of Athens always gets ridiculous amounts of storms/rainfall. Looks like anything in the northern upstate is having a hard time surviving or developing. Maybe next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 You think they'll actually issue a watch? 40% chance, according to the MD. Did you read it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 40% chance, according to the MD. Did you read it? Yes. Just wondering if we'll actually get one this time unlike Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Ya know I was shocked as hell to see this lol......lots of low level lapse rates but everything else other than shear is just meh, but strong shear can work wonders if you can get the storms going.....this could be one of those days where the line forms N and W of the Triad and badasses its way all the way to the coast......its been so long since I have seen that though, but if you can get a good enough line going there is a chance I guess....it would be late here 8pm or later I think before anything got to PGV..... Yeah, CAPE is modest, mid level lapse rates stink to high heaven, and CAPE in the hail zone is not very robust. But as you said, shear is pretty good and low level lapse rates are decent. LIs are -2 or better and general ML CAPE is in the 500-1500 j/kg range, depending on where you are. Storms are firing to the west, so maybe there's a chance. We'll see.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 Yes. Just wondering if we'll actually get one this time unlike Saturday. OK, just checking. Like downeast, I was surprised that they issued an MD for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 We got our watch---- weather radio just scared me! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted June 30, 2015 Share Posted June 30, 2015 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA COASTAL WATERS * EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 330 PM UNTIL 1000 PM EDT. * PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE... SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM FROM CENTRAL NC INTO SOUTHEAST VA THIS AFTERNOON...POSING A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA TO 40 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF SOUTHERN PINES NORTH CAROLINA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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