Hurricane11 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 been looking like that since this AM, this isnt surprising.. for NYC itself its looking like a nusissance at best What data are you using to support this statement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 been looking like that since this AM, this isnt surprising.. for NYC itself its looking like a nusissance at best Stop trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The NAM is 6+ from city south. Looks like just 5-10 miles north of the city totals drop dramatically. That's how tight the gradient is....looks to give 8+ to Trenton and Monmouth county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Still a solid hit for NYC south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM tightened the gradient on the north side but still looks good for central NJ and SE PA - NYC itself still gets a few inches. Pretty soon will be time to see how the short term models handle the gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Axis of heaviest precip between Sandy Hook, NJ & Atlantic City. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Axis of heaviest precip between Sandy Hook, NJ & Atlantic City. It looks like it would go to snow at NYC's latitude around hour 30 / 1 AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Looks like thetrials/4dvar will miss out on this one....better luck next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Stop trolling. I still think its a 3-6 event - which is what I've said since this AM. how is that trolling? 6-12 phill/cnj/snj if I had flipped those accumulations, no one would say I was trolling - the psychology on the board is humorous. my calls arent off verbatim model outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Nam is 6"+ for all of NYC and LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM: Great hit for the Driscoll bridge on south. NYC proper fine. Anyone north of i84 doesn't look good on this model. Wyoming Valley pa fringe line. Lehigh valley decent. Best 78 on south. Gotta wonder how much is sleet over Philly and south jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Axis of heaviest precip between Sandy Hook, NJ & Atlantic City. Broken record since March 2009....areas that were never snowier when I was a kid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM: Great hit for the Driscoll bridge on south. NYC proper fine. Anyone north of i84 doesn't look good on this model. Wyoming Valley pa fringe line. Lehigh valley decent. Best 78 on south. Gotta wonder how much is sleet over Philly and south jersey. Looks like around the Philly to AC corridor gets a sleetfest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard-on-GFS Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 yup, tomorrow NYC will be high and dry been looking like that since this AM, this isnt surprising.. for NYC itself its looking marginal at best - 10 -20 miles south from nams current track and it will be a nuisance at most This thread is unbearable. This stuff needs to go to banter. You would think that this area was snow starved when in all actuality you've done quite well this season. This is a SECS for most of the area; especially NYC south. Since when did 4-7" become a nuisance event?! This run is very good for areas to the south of NYC including CNJ. Anyway, I think that we have a pretty great model consensus at this range, it seems that the models are handling this system quite well. I'm liking the EURO/GFS blend, with the NAM picking up on banding. Should be a good storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM tightened the gradient on the north side but still looks good for central NJ and SE PA - NYC itself still gets a few inches. Pretty soon will be time to see how the short term models handle the gradient. I'd say more than a few inches for NYC with nearly .75 of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 6+ on the nam for nyc. Long duration storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 OKX new map out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 OKX new map outthose will be dropped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 NAM is a major snowstorm for central & southern NJ...though somewhat dependent on a second wave or batch of snow to move through on Thursday afternoon. NYC & LI also see very significant snow...probably close to 1.0 L.E. after hour 30. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 those will be dropped I disagree seems like a good call at this moment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 This thread is unbearable. This stuff needs to go to banter. You would think that this area was snow starved when in all actuality you've done quite well this season. This is a SECS for most of the area; especially NYC south. Since when did 4-7" become a nuisance event?! This run is very good for areas to the south of NYC including CNJ. Anyway, I think that we have a pretty great model consensus at this range, it seems that the models are handling this system quite well. I'm liking the EURO/GFS blend, with the NAM picking up on banding. Should be a good storm. So, we basically agree fully based on what I posted several minutes before this post (See below). BUT another 10-20 mile shift from the NAMS depiction (which is all I was saying) and we're talking about a very different story for the NYC area.. I still think its a 3-6 event - which is what I've said since this AM. how is that trolling? 6-12 phill/cnj/snj if I had flipped those accumulations, no one would say I was trolling - the psychology on the board is humorous. my calls arent off verbatim model outputs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 OKX new map outCT totals will not be that high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stlirish Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 those will be dropped under what premise?Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Max Po FTW I am all in...... min baseline http://www.weather.gov/images/okx/winter/SnowAmt10Prcntl.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The way the NAM looks, with waves of precipitation coming through, makes me feel that it still has the potential to bring one of these waves to shore (hah, pats my back).....a slight shift north with one of these waves could significantly up our snowfall numbers. The NAM doesn't bad by any means, although it is not improved from its last run. 4-7" still looks good for most of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
F5TornadoF5 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 6+ on the nam for nyc. Long duration storm. I think a lot of people didn't look at the later panels. Adds another 1-3in later in the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Monmouth_County_Jacpot Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 been looking like that since this AM, this isnt surprising.. for NYC itself its looking marginal at best - 10 -20 miles south from nams current track and it will be a nuisance at mostand the trolling continues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I think a lot of people didn't look at the later panels. Adds another 1-3in later in the day. If the other models look pretty good...since we are practically within 24...I think you should see some very good snows in the area Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 We might be underestimating the SE ridging a bit and that could make all the difference. We're in a -PNA/+AO regime that favors stronger ridging, which is a significant departure from the +PNA pattern we've been seeing. If this wasn't the case then I would think the high would be able to press to the east easily thus suppressing these waves further. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 These events always have big cutoffs, see 2/2/96 which was a similar idea, hardly anything fell in EPA yet parts of SRN NJ had 18 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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