Max Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 weenie goggles man, weenie goggles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 ohyea.gif you should get out of bed before 11 welcome to 0600 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 you should get out of bed before 11 welcome to 0600 Banter stage right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Winter storm watches out already wow. I guess they must be entertaining the NAM qpf numbers. Actually per there AFD they are going with a ECMWF/GFS blend of .4-.6 qpf with possibly higher than 10:1 ratios. They said the NAM would indicate higher amounts than that. Its the most boarderline watch you could have. They are barely at 50% confidence needed for a watch and 4-7" which averages out to 5.5 (rounds to 6" over a zone). They are giving future shifts more options, again per the AFD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Watch the weenie band...some modest ML fronto on the north side has been showing up the past couple runs. But if we get 15 to 1 in this, then 3-6" is pretty reasonable with perhaps a spot 6"+ Yeah that would be the areas getting maybe close to warning. Seems like two areas of forcing. One with the LLJ in CT up through SE MA and the other maybe near pike or just north? Not to get cute..but just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Not sure if winter storm criteria will be met my many folks. Looks good for 3-5" for most of SNE.... With some isolated 6" amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Yeah that would be the areas getting maybe close to warning. Seems like two areas of forcing. One with the LLJ in CT up through SE MA and the other maybe near pike or just north? Not to get cute..but just a guess. Yeah that sounds decent...could also be another area right near the E MA shore with some enhancement from the developing sfc low...winds back more E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Meh event up here....enough to cover the brown and black snowbanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 GFS gets almost conditionally unstable near 9z Monday. Could be some heavier snow if that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Yeah that sounds decent...could also be another area right near the E MA shore with some enhancement from the developing sfc low...winds back more E. RGEM does that which surprised me a bit, but it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 5.7 breaks the BOS record, Seems like there's about a 30% chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CCHurricane Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 New RGEM looks pretty good as well. Pretty snowy for the Cape too. Similar to the January Blizzard this year, I'm not totally convinced that the Cape doesn't stay all snow. I simply believe that the models are over-estimating the warming at the surface as temps aloft stay cold throughout. Also, the trend colder doesn't hurt atm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 5.7 breaks the BOS record, Seems like there's about a 30% chance. I'd bet against it in this one, but I think this on gets us in proper striking distance so that Tuesday night -- or almost anything else from there on out -- should take care of business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 GFS gets almost conditionally unstable near 9z Monday. Could be some heavier snow if that happens. oddly I just pulled this up on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I'd bet against it in this one, but I think this on gets us in proper striking distance so that Tuesday night -- or almost anything else from there on out -- should take care of business. Yeah everything has to break just right. Once it's done, we have to have a Boston area gtg to celebrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Yeah everything has to break just right. Once it's done, we have to have a Boston area gtg to celebrate. We should set this up ASAP. Even one on the night we break it ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Yeah everything has to break just right. Once it's done, we have to have a Boston area gtg to celebrate. I need 9.25 to break 100, Tippy says it will never snow again after Wed so i hope I make it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 .could also be another area right near the E MA shore with some enhancement from the developing sfc low...winds back more E. BOS should take advantage of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Time for NWS to axe the watch/warning/advisory by county lines its laughable seeing how the watch boxes jump north and south from one town to the next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 We should set this up ASAP. Even one on the night we break it ! I don't want to jinx it by setting it up before it happens...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I don't want to jinx it by setting it up before it happens...lol. you might break it on a anafrontal burst in the middle of the night Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Loving the 12z runs thus far for this area. Nice enhancement along CF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 5.7 breaks the BOS record, Seems like there's about a 30% chance. I'm hoping they get 5.6" out of this thing, then the season shuts off like a bull's azz at fly time - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro looks like it is going to be a bit less amped than 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Expecting 3-4" as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro looks like solid advisory for all of SNE...but didn't get that extra juice for warning. Might be some lollis though. My personal pick for those would be around NW RI...where they can take advantage both the low level forcing near S coast and also maybe some brief enhacnement from backed easterly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Euro looks like solid advisory for all of SNE...but didn't get that extra juice for warning. Might be some lollis though. My personal pick for those would be around NW RI...where they can take advantage both the low level forcing near S coast and also maybe some brief enhacnement from backed easterly flow. I thought it looked nice for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I like 6-8 for most of Ct over to just north of TAN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I need 9.25 to break 100, Tippy says it will never snow again after Wed so i hope I make it Yup, that's exactly what I said - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I like 6-8 for most of Ct over to just north of TAN 12z runs looked real nice. Just looking at them all it looks as though the rgem was the furthest south with highest totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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