Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Agree, I would of went with advisories for all ct counties. If warning levels are reached in isolated spots, so be it....it's sunday.what does the day of the week have to do with anything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I think 4-8" is possible for me, I'm now interested in this system now that its a frontal wave and not just a passage. It's not possible to simultaneously receive 4 and 8 inches of snow unless you have a very large property. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Isolated warning amounts wouldn't "Verify" a warning anyway. You need >50% of the county warned to produce warning snowfall to justify the warning from a technical standpoint IIRC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 trend 12z today on NAM/GFS has been to slightly de-escalate from last night for pike region, RGEM counters especially for eastern MA maybe at the limits of RGEM's kill zone, but comparing 12z vs. 18z RGEM, 12z had a more elongated N-S low so less able to bring qpf back to eastern MA... 18z has better easterly flow and throws back more qpf into eastern MA look at 9z Monday timeframe, the difference is pretty significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Can someone help a colorblind brother out, what's the RGEM show 15? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Going to be some decent orographics with this one. Totals in CNE/NNE may be tied closely to terrain as most of the meso-models are showing. The southern Greens could be the jackpot zone with the upslope assist. ALB's probably gonna get about 1.4" and Woodford VT about 10". Just like most events this year. Good thing is there's not too much snow to melt before baseball season. Downtown is down to about 10" OTG, but there's probably 1.5 - 2" liquid in there. One big signature event would make this season memorable for snow and not just cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 in inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 trend 12z today on NAM/GFS has been to slightly de-escalate from last night for pike region, RGEM counters especially for eastern MA maybe at the limits of RGEM's kill zone, but comparing 12z vs. 18z RGEM, 12z had a more elongated N-S low so less able to bring qpf back to eastern MA... 18z has better easterly flow and throws back more qpf into eastern MA at 9z Monday There's probably some semblance of a weenie band for the pike region...there's half decent ML fronto over that area...it actually extends into S NH too. So it wouldn't surprise me to see a bit better snow there than guidance would indicate. Unless this thing really gets strung out of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 RGEM juices up and GFS decides to turn this into a 1-3" event. They look pretty similar to me. Maybe a tenth more on average on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 There's probably some semblance of a weenie band for the pike region...there's half decent ML fronto over that area...it actually extends into S NH too. So it wouldn't surprise me to see a bit better snow there than guidance would indicate. Unless this thing really gets strung out of course. Agree... add to that somewhat better ratios north of the Pike into SNH and the more widespread totals on the NWS map make good sense Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 It's hard not to forecast 6-8 with a few higher amounts from SW CT to Monson/ Sturbridge line on east and south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 It's hard not to forecast 6-8 with a few higher amounts from SW CT to Monson/ Sturbridge line on east and south That would be too high. Could happen. But would be a bad forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 They look pretty similar to me. Maybe a tenth more on average on the RGEM. It's the way they get there that probably makes a bigger difference than that...GFS looks flat and like hours of 1-2 mile vis light snow while the RGEM looks like it has a 4-6 hour period of more significant forcing...so I'd expect better ratios on the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 FYI, 18z RGEM has 0.25-0.55" of liquid for this event. We advisory. It does tickle 0.6" for parts of the outer cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 FYI, 18z RGEM has 0.25-0.55" of liquid for this event. We advisory. It does tickle 0.6" for parts of the outer cape. I'd bet most places in Ct see an avg of 6-7 inches..at least away from the water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 a more openly torn AFD than usual from Box... highlights how this setup is really straddling headline categories: Hate a wobbling forecast which is typical with such small events. Uncertainty derives from low-level thermal profiles and precipitation amounts. Surely expecting snow...but with any shift north-S of colder air and/or precipitation amounts results in areas shifting from advisory to warning...or vice versa. Enough to just pull your hair out. Then there is the timing of the system that has sped up slightly. A shorter residence time of course would yield lesser snowfall amounts. Quite a challenging forecast right on the cusp of headline thresholds.The event does take place mainly from Sunday evening into the early morning hours on Monday during which time there is not much traffic on the Road. Is this a high impact event that warrants warnings? A question to struggle with as warnings are necessary when we are confident in meeting or exceeding 6+ inch criteria. Yet the question in front of US is where will the higher amounts of snow focus? Have to make some sort of call...the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the few. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 FYI, 18z RGEM has 0.25-0.55" of liquid for this event. We advisory. It does tickle 0.6" for parts of the outer cape. you thinking straight up 10-1? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 you thinking straight up 10-1?10-12:1, probably less down around I-95. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Close Previous Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Rgem is the coldest? Seems most guidance wants to mix LI, rgem says no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Just barely inching over the top...lol.The NAM inching over the record ensures that the record waits for Wednesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 When does this start and end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 When does this start and end?Maybe 7PM start to 4AM finish out by you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Some most recent bufkit outputs for KBOS and other sites: KBOS: 18z NAM 4.4" / 0.39 qpf (ratios 7:1-17:1) 18z GFS 2.9" / 0.24 qpf (ratios 8:1-16:1) 12z GFS 4.8" / 0.41 qpf (rasn at the end) KBDL: 18z NAM 5.9" / 0.51 qpf 18Z GFS 2.5" / 0.22 qpf 12Z GFS 3.0" / 0.26 qpf KPYM: 18Z NAM 1.9" / 0.54 qpf (lots of rasn at end) 18Z GFS 2.5" / 0.33 qpf 12Z GFS 4.4" / 0.55 qpf KORH: 18Z NAM 4.1" / 0.51 qpf 18Z GFS 1.1" / 0.14 qpf 12Z GFS 3.5" / 0.34 qpf GFS seems like driest guidance right now comparing to Euro/RGEM/NAM, but we'll see how 0Z trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 Maybe 7PM start to 4AM finish out by you That's it? I don't care Ehat kind of system it is, including a Blizzard, when a storm is 9 hours long, I never get more than 4". Only 2/7/2003 did it. I'm worried if that's the timing. Thought it was more 2pm to 6am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 28, 2015 Share Posted February 28, 2015 I could be wrong about those times. Just trying to figure out between panels Nice little 3-5" here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxsniss Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 0z NAM really gets the low going with better easterly flow into southeastern MA... warning CT into most of southeastern MA south of the Pike Great to see this after the dry trends of 12z, especially on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 That's it? I don't care Ehat kind of system it is, including a Blizzard, when a storm is 9 hours long, I never get more than 4". Only 2/7/2003 did it. I'm worried if that's the timing. Thought it was more 2pm to 6am. I'm going 2-5" up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheSnowman Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Nice NAM. Play Nice. Yes you are. Good Model! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bboughton Posted March 1, 2015 Share Posted March 1, 2015 Nice NAM. Play Nice. Yes you are. Good Model! hires has us just outside the warning area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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