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March Into Not A Morch Pattern Discussion


Damage In Tolland

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yeah the sun is higher using your logic the transition to winter starts Mid Nov but it means nothing to my climo. I average more in March than Dec

I'm not denying March is snowier than Dec...obviously because there a lag in the atmosphere. ..not to mention the waters are cooler. All I was saying was that March is a transition month, which is what spring and fall are...transitional seasons. The the first signs of a transition can actually be felt in the latter part of August. March maybe colder and snowier than December, but is warmer and not as snowy as February. Transition. If it weren't a transitional month, than we'd never see 80's to near 90 like we did in 1998 and 2012.
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I'm not denying March is snowier than Dec...obviously because there a lag in the atmosphere. ..not to mention the waters are cooler. All I was saying was that March is a transition month, which is what spring and fall are...transitional seasons. The the first signs of a transition can actually be felt in the latter part of August. March maybe colder and snowier than December, but is warmer and not as snowy as February. Transition. If it weren't a transitional month, than we'd never see 80's to near 90 like we did in 1998 and 2012.

concur
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well I thought the GFS 500 mb heights over the next 15 days looked pretty decent. Seems to be the a general theme of troughs and negative height anomalies across the northeastern United States with significant negative departures at 850 millibar temperatures. Whether we can get tangible results at the surface remains to be seen that I would take my chance with this pattern.

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Will, Scott, do you guys feel as though this overall pattern moving forward holds the same promise as it used to?

It seems to me as though we are now moving outside of the realm of run-to-run variance...some of these threats seem to be fading faster than a roadside snowbank in mid March.

 

I still see promise into early April...I'm losing a bit of hope for 3/24-25, though we'll see if that comes back (some ensembles still trying)...obviously when you miss on certain "potentials", then naturally the pattern as a whole "holds less promise"...think of it as a six shooter revolver and each threat window that passes without a storm is firing another round that misses.

 

The revolver isn't empty yet though even if 3/24 fails to materialize.

 

 

Some guidance tries to give us a brief torch next week before another window arrives...though that shouldn't be a shock, it is late March afterall. But it could be another "false spring"...in the sense that it's not really the end yet for a legit pattern that supports snow threats.

 

But you know the drill, it's bowling season and things can pop up quickly and Canada remains very cold.

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I still see promise into early April...I'm losing a bit of hope for 3/24-25, though we'll see if that comes back (some ensembles still trying)...obviously when you miss on certain "potentials", then naturally the pattern as a whole "holds less promise"...think of it as a six shooter revolver and each threat window that passes without a storm is firing another round that misses.

 

The revolver isn't empty yet though even if 3/24 fails to materialize.

 

 

Some guidance tries to give us a brief torch next week before another window arrives...though that shouldn't be a shock, it is late March afterall. But it could be another "false spring"...in the sense that it's not really the end yet for a legit pattern that supports snow threats.

 

But you know the drill, it's bowling season and things can pop up quickly and Canada remains very cold.

Thanks for the thoughts...great response.

 

Just really anxious for a threat to distract with my dad's one year just passing and all..sucks. I'll try to limit the whining.

I know it's nauseating.

This time of year is tough.

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Thanks for the thoughts...great response.

 

Just really anxious for a threat to distract with my dad's one year just passing and all..sucks. I'll try to limit the whining.

I know it's nauseating.

This time of year is tough.

thoughts bro, the first year is the absolute worst, April 30th brings back my nightmare every year, the pain is just a little less intense.  I do agree that this hobby and tracking is a great distraction . We snow bro we snow

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