MillvilleWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The 18z GFS seems to have initialized that surface ridge better. Also, low running along the front is just a touch stronger. Result is a MUCH farther north QPF field. Just got back and noticed that qpf shield bump northward overall on the GFS. That's actually pretty impressive given the past 4-6 runs. It's encouraging to say the least. I'm sticking with Euro/UKMET/ECM blend. That trio is usually pretty good when it comes to southern stream systems. GFS has been been good at northern stream dominant systems. I'm sticking with 4-8" in the LSV with more down to the MD line. I still say 2-4" at MDT is a good call with room for improvement if the latest guidance continues its small bumps to the north as well as for bumping up in the LSV, but that will not be happening until we see the progression of the frontal boundary over the region. Good luck at WGAL for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GFS bump north isnt surprising to those who follow the GEFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The DC crew is jumping off the cliff because the crazy 10 - 14 amounts on last night's NAM aren't around anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 My guess: Lancaster: 4.5" York: 6.75" Harrisburg: 3.75" State College: 1" Williamsport: .25" Altoona: 2" York 6-8 Lancaster 4-7 Harrisburg 4-5 State College 1-3 Williamsport. Sunny and 65 Our sub forum rocks, thanks to our heavy hitters for the great analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 York 6-8 Lancaster 4-7 Harrisburg 4-5 State College 1-3 Williamsport. Sunny and 65 Our sub forum rocks, thanks to our heavy hitters for the great analysis Our friend would LOVE that. And yeah, you guys who post knowledgable and detailed info - so many thanks. Even if I don't say it enough I always enjoy reading your analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Nowcasting going to be a big - MAG, Allweather, etc, keep the analysis coming - 0z runs are going to be the biggest runs of the winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdskidoo Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 surprises in store with this one. frontal boundaries with waves along them can be very tricky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 CTP and Sterling suprisingly don't match with their maps. http://www.weather.gov/ctp/WinterHazards Sterling has 8-10 over the border, CTP has mostly 6-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Sauss the 65 and sunny gave me a good laugh!! What are your thoughts on the 2 waves? Is the Nam & GFS having an issue with them? It seems in one camp you have Nam/GFS and the other camp UKMET/Euro/SREF Euro has been pretty steady and the Nam/GFS still doing some wiggles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 CTP and Sterling suprisingly don't match with their maps. http://www.weather.gov/ctp/WinterHazards Sterling has 8-10 over the border, CTP has mostly 6-8. CTP seldom matches up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Sauss the 65 and sunny gave me a good laugh!! What are your thoughts on the 2 waves? Is the Nam & GFS having an issue with them? It seems in one camp you have Nam/GFS and the other camp UKMET/Euro/SREF I think it's go time and we focus on radar and satellite imagery. But I'm usually wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RitualOfTheTrout Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Quick question on the 18z GFS, why does it show that dip in total qpf around central PA? Is form the low crossing the apps or down slopping \ confluence from the pressing high? I see that feature pop up from time to time but it seems to have extended further in the SWPA region than usual. ...Well then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Quick question on the 18z GFS, why does it show that dip in total qpf around central PA? Is form the low crossing the apps or down slopping \ confluence from the pressing high? I see that feature pop up from time to time but it seems to have extended further in the SWPA region than usual. I believe it's picking up on downsloping. Most, if not all guidance has this feature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 I'm sitttimg at 42 degrees, my fear is it doesn't cool so quickly and we just keep rain until way past midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GEFS Mean is huge. Great hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 If the cold front/air is getting hung up that's a good sign MDT north...AVP is still at 39. 18z NAM had it around 35 for this hour. 150304/2300Z 5 25006KT 34.8F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So the mid Atlantic forum has gone insane, haven't had a chance to look at things since the euro... Has much changed? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 GEFS Mean is huge. Great hit. That new bullseye area in east central PA/western NJ is fairly new, correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So the mid Atlantic forum has gone insane, haven't had a chance to look at things since the euro... Has much changed? The mid atlantic forum IS insane...I don't know why you don't just start posting here permanently and be done with it. I saw some of them were giving you a hard time a week or so ago...again. I think what's changing is that they might lose more and more precip. to rain than what was thought earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 That new bullseye area in east central PA/western NJ is fairly new, correct? Yep, interested to see if GFS/Ensembles are onto something. also... Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 16m16 minutes ago There is some pretty legitimate mid level frontogenesis tonight in "NW areas" that seemingly "miss the heaviest" ... hmmmm Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 13m13 minutes ago I could see amounts getting raised in NE PA/Leigh into NW NJ-Hudson Valley. Excellent frontogen/snow making. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 The mid atlantic forum IS insane...I don't know why you don't just start posting here permanently and be done with it. I saw some of them were giving you a hard time a week or so ago...again. I think what's changing is that they might lose more and more precip. to rain than what was thought earlier. I've known many of them for 4-5 years now, so I'd hate to stop posting there all together. But yeah, some are awful hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So the mid Atlantic forum has gone insane, haven't had a chance to look at things since the euro... Has much changed? 18z NAM/GFS/RGEM and the latest SREF all came north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Yep, interested to see if GFS/Ensembles are onto something. also... Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 16m16 minutes ago There is some pretty legitimate mid level frontogenesis tonight in "NW areas" that seemingly "miss the heaviest" ... hmmmm Anthony Masiello @antmasiello 13m13 minutes ago I could see amounts getting raised in NE PA/Leigh into NW NJ-Hudson Valley. Excellent frontogen/snow making. On the flip side however: Ed Vallee @EdValleeWx · 54m 54 minutes ago 1 thing PA to SNE:ongoing CAA will lead to mid level drying.Likely less liquid than modeled on N edge of QPF gradient Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On the flip side however: Ed Vallee @EdValleeWx · 54m 54 minutes ago 1 thing PA to SNE:ongoing CAA will lead to mid level drying.Likely less liquid than modeled on N edge of QPF gradient Wouldn't it be something if you jackpotted in the end of all of this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 So the mid Atlantic forum has gone insane, haven't had a chance to look at things since the euro... Has much changed?If you end up jackpoting and southern PA gets slammed and DC gets barely anything, you should post here and stay in the snow version of the witness protection program. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 If you end up jackpoting and southern PA gets slammed and DC gets barely anything, you should post here and stay in the snow version of the witness protection program. Hahahahaha I'll keep that in mind. I think 4-6" is still a good call for me and those along the line. More if we flip sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Hahahahaha I'll keep that in mind. I think 4-6" is still a good call for me and those along the line. More if we flip sooner Mapgirl everytime I see that Vance post I start laughing. Anybody reporting snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 On the flip side however: Ed Vallee @EdValleeWx · 54m 54 minutes ago 1 thing PA to SNE:ongoing CAA will lead to mid level drying.Likely less liquid than modeled on N edge of QPF gradient From QG omega? That seems like a stretch especially with forcing for ascent provided by semi-geostrophic mechanisms. Anyway, the 18z GFS (among other guidance) has it pretty well saturated at mid-levels and above for UNV until at least 15z Thursday. At low-levels, there may be some downsloping effects with the NW flow. The max in 600 mb frontogenesis is forecast to be just north of central PA so there will be some mid-level lift. This lift may coincide with the dendritic growth zone late tonight into tomorrow. Still, we are probably too far NW to get more than a couple/few inches here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 No matter what this storm is going to surprise. This type of dynamic event makes being a weenie exciting. Now cast will be great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 If you end up jackpoting and southern PA gets slammed and DC gets barely anything, you should post here and stay in the snow version of the witness protection program. Aren't both IAD and BWI above their season snowfall averages? I suppose DCA is still a few inches below climo so maybe some still have a right to complain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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