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Central PA & The Fringes - Early March 2015


MAG5035

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Finally hit 33. My dad said the roads were flooding due to the water having no where to go. Also interesting observation...the wall in our driveway where the water is running due to the spouting being blocked is now iced over like Niagara falls.

I was afraid of stuff like this happening for those of you with deep packs that are blocking drains/etc where it may pond tonight/tomorrow before the cold air returns and freezes it

 

Temp here slowly climbing (now 31 F) but did end up with a little more ice than I was honestly expecting.  The radiational cooling has been beating the warm air advection so far tonight.  Crazy to see how warm temps are at 850mb right now knowing they will be crashing in less than 24 hours!!

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I was afraid of stuff like this happening for those of you with deep packs that are blocking drains/etc where it may pond tonight/tomorrow before the cold air returns and freezes it

 

Temp here slowly climbing (now 31 F) but did end up with a little more ice than I was honestly expecting.  The radiational cooling has been beating the warm air advection so far tonight.  Crazy to see how warm temps are at 850mb right now knowing they will be crashing in less than 24 hours!!

So was I. Warm air finally winning out...up to 37 now.

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Saw one of the Pitt thread posters bring this up over there, HRRR and RAP are beginning the re...changeover starting in the Pittsburgh region between the 8-10z timeframe, that bleeds into some of the central and Laurels counties by 10-11z. Will have to monitor the evolution on that with the near-term guidance overnight. 

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Within the last 20 minutes temperature went from 32.7 to 38.3...pretty impressive. 

 

Likely starting to mix down some of that warm air aloft at your higher elevation if you have any kind of breeze, 925mb temps just off the deck are +6ºC in our areas per mesoanalysis. It also shows 850 temps below 0 are already starting to crash into NW PA, so HRRR/RAP might be on to something. 

 

Blair scanner starting to light up with some tree/branch down calls down here. Also a flooding call as well in Altoona somewhere (likely blocked drainage). I dunno how much above freezing we're going to get down here off the Allegheny front, I'm not to sure we ever see much above 34 or 35ºF, especially if the cold starts bleeding back in that fast. Wonder if that's going to have any implications on where the best snow sets up for tomorrow eve. 

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Likely starting to mix down some of that warm air aloft at your higher elevation if you have any kind of breeze, 925mb temps just off the deck are +6ºC in our areas per mesoanalysis. It also shows 850 temps below 0 are already starting to crash into NW PA, so HRRR/RAP might be on to something. 

 

Blair scanner starting to light up with some tree/branch down calls down here. Also a flooding call as well in Altoona somewhere (likely blocked drainage). I dunno how much above freezing we're going to get down here off the Allegheny front, I'm not to sure we ever see much above 34 or 35ºF, especially if the cold starts bleeding back in that fast. Wonder if that's going to have any implications on where the best snow sets up for tomorrow eve. 

 

Yep..have a gusty SW breeze and now up to 43.1. 

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Seconded! What do you use to make these and keep the scale correct? I'm surprised NCEP maps don't have counties, or at least an option to display them. You'd think that would be a useful feature.

I used inkscape to vectorize (.eps) the Pa overlay map.

Load the nam image & the newly created pa overlay map into Corel Draw and scale the overlay to fit the best i can.

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GFS supresses the Thursday storm so much that you have to go south of border to see big totals.

I moved back to Manchester MD this year, and even here I am very worried about suppression.  This reminds me a LOT of the early march storm last year.  That ended up only dropping 3" here.  This year every storm  has been a fringe job in this area, either north or south. 

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I moved back to Manchester MD this year, and even here I am very worried about suppression.  This reminds me a LOT of the early march storm last year.  That ended up only dropping 3" here.  This year every storm  has been a fringe job in this area, either north or south. 

I think you'll do fine in N MD. I think at this point, it's a moderate (4-7") deal for the LSV and more than that along the border. I'd be concerned in DC-Philly about sleet.

 

But yeah, this thing has really been leaping south, even the NYC area is sweating a bit.

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