sauss06 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 UKMET went bonkers with a Rt. 30 and south snow event...snow accumulations top out around a foot after the changeover in southern York / Lancaster / Chester counties. Ho-lee-moley. 12z EURO much faster with the cold air and slower with the storm too. EDIT: At 6z Thursday, all of PA is below 0 at 850...the 850 line is just S of DCA. This run is cold and wet. usually you are the bearer of bad news......... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Don't look now but MAV/MET guidance has trended colder for MDT/THV/LNS tomorrow. SITE - MAV - MET THV 43 43 MDT 41 39 LNS 43 42 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 We may have squeaked out half an inch here before precip shut off. Hearing some pinging at the window here in Innovation Park now with returns moving back over us. The DC/Baltimore crowd is hyped after the 12Z model suite. Good for them to finish out winter with a bang (although I'm still holding out hope for a solid advisory-level event) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Okay I'm intrigued for this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Don't look now but MAV/MET guidance has trended colder for MDT/THV/LNS tomorrow. SITE - MAV - MET THV 43 43 MDT 41 39 LNS 43 42 What are your personal thoughts for our area with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Flipped to freezing rain a iittle while ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Wow! I think all the models give us a decent snowfall. Too good to be true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Anyone like to share their thoughts on how much snow could fall in the JST-AOO area? Thanks in advance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Okay I'm intrigued for this event. Maybe finally one for our area. Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looks like the 12Z Euro puts York and Lancaster in the 8 - 10 zone. Snow map in the Mid Atlantic thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Looks like the 12Z Euro puts York and Lancaster in the 8 - 10 zone. Snow map in the Mid Atlantic thread. I think that might have been the map using 15-1 ratios, they posted another map at 10-1 and the amounts were less but still 6+ for all. Nope...you were correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Sleet reported mixing in in Williamsport. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Allweather I see you in here any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Festus Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think that might have been the map using 15-1 ratios, they posted another map at 10-1 and the amounts were less but still 6+ for all. Nope...you were correct. Yeah that 15:1 map was an omfg special. Seems like the Euro is on the northern end of the model envelope. We're close to the sweet spot verbatim. Looks like another gradient of doom watch and wait specials. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Most of the 12z models have Harrisburg area in ballpark of 6 inches. It looks like models are coming to a consensus today with the target area. We just need to beat 4.8 inches for the best event at MDT so far this season. 6 inches would put MDT near 37 inches for the season. Maybe a 40 inch season is still possible with this storm plus one more small event before we are done this year ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 00z runs are huge. If thing hold serve I'm all in for a nice season, ending storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Home now, can confirm sleet 20.4 degrees. Gonna get icy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Kind of interesting...tomorrow night and Thursday is probably the best shot for a 6"+ snow here in the LSV all winter, and yet no one seemes to be talking about it. There's been so much emphasis on today's "event" that I think tomorrow people are going to be caught off guard. I've mentioned the likelyhood of accumulating snow here to several people at work and they have no idea what I'm talking about. With the energy just coming on shore this morning and how poorly models have been this winter, I think everyone wants to look at a few more model runs before really hyping anything up. Someone is going to get a really good thumping, just a matter of where. The where is the trouble, and is going to make for another horrible forecast headache. The timing of the cold air will be a big factor as well as the placement of the moisture. We may not get a good idea of how that is going to evolve until tonight/tomorrow. The focus for today from NWS/etc will be the freezing rain concern, then I am sure they will flip to start raising awareness of the potential. The critical thickness image below shows a good indication of part of why the precip is struggling to stay as snow. The yellow line is 700-850mb thickness I believe. Really shows that is where the warm layer is pushing north and east first with still colder air closer to the surface (blue line of 1000-850mb thickness being further south and west with green 1000-700mb in the middle), hence the sleet reports. As the warming continues we will see the changeover to rain occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That's what kinda stinks opposite for me, everyone here is focused on tomorrow, not getting much info on today(I understand 3/4 of the forum is LSV so I understand lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 as far as timing for Thursday, still looking like a 3-4am Start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Djr while I have you, what is the icing threat looking like for up in NCPA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 as far as timing for Thursday, still looking like a 3-4am Start? Lets go conservative with a 5 - 7 am start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dcfox1 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Started as freezing rain here. Dropped from 30 to 28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hanging around 20 here, sleet. Just checked out Euro has all of lycoming county getting .25+ ice tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hanging around 20 here, sleet. Just checked out Euro has all of lycoming county getting .25+ ice tonight. wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 its 28 in Altoona and its a mix of rain and freezing rain. Had a little sleet for awhile around noon but mainly just rain/frrain at this point. Roads are fine, Walks are tricky. Wouldve prefered all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Mix of drizzle and snow in Harrisburg, nothing icing that I could see when I was out walking a minute ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Allweather I see you in here any thoughts? I'm intrigued with this system and it may the best storm of the season for parts of the forum, especially the SE. Guidance seems to be honed in, as you would expect now that the energy is being sampled. Still some wobbles to go, but those in the Mid-Atl forum may want to be leery about the cold air progressing south. They may have the best rates, but could waste it on garbage before the true cold air arrives. I've been burned numerous times on a front pressing south with a wave developing on it. It almost always ends up being slower than modeled with the southward progress...but every situation is different so I could be wrong! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Djr while I have you, what is the icing threat looking like for up in NCPA? Looks to be a little slick for the next several hours up your way, but temps continuing to warm should improve conditions this evening/tonight as the warm layer gets thicker and the cold layer smaller. With the warmer air continuing to surge northward and rainfall rates looking decent over the next few hours, not all will turn to ice so I am not sure .25" will manage to verify but could see trace to .10" occurring for a little bit before melting. If anything, this will be our mildest night in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 New event. Winter Storm Watch from 3/4/2015 7:00 PM to 3/5/2015 7:00 PM EST for Lancaster County, York County. More information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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