Mallow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 So far, the 12z NAM looks like it's continuing its trend back towards the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 If the trend continues through 00z, wouldn't be surprised to see watches go out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well true central gang, writing is on the wall. Congrats southern PA again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well true central gang, writing is on the wall. Congrats southern PA again. Meh, pretty sure this place can't get more than 8" of snow from one storm. My four-winter experience here would suggest that's the case. So... any model that shows more than that is inevitably wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Lol, with this winter, and type of system, I'll congratulate actual measurements. That said, if you are in true central, don't expect more than a couple of inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well true central gang, writing is on the wall. Congrats southern PA again. Congrats again? The almost 50" I've recorded here versus the 28.5" my parents in Lebanon County have recorded argues otherwise. Maybe take a break? Your judgment seems clouded and your posts have been annoyingly negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Philadelphia is actually below in normal snowfall so after this they may be above! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Congrats again? The almost 50" I've recorded here versus the 28.5" my parents in Lebanon County have recorded argues otherwise. Maybe take a break? Your judgment seems clouded and your posts have been annoyingly negative. Thank you! True central has enjoyed a pretty solid winter, though IDK about Hazleton. As Mallow alluded to above we just don't get the big events very often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well true central gang, writing is on the wall. Congrats southern PA again. Again? The biggest one-storm snow total this season down in Lancaster has been 3.8" and even that was before a quarter-inch of ice and rain fell - so when the system was done, we had like 2" of glacier. We've had so many mixing issues down here that no one storm has had enjoyable aftermath. I'm leery with this particular storm...especially since I've seen countless times where the cold air has lagged slower than progged when a cold front tries to press south in advance of a wave coming from the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Was out this morning and it seems pretty cold & raw out. And it's currently 17 degrees. Wonder how much effect CAD is going to have on this event.... Currently at 39.39" for my season total here at the house. Not completely accurate but close. A few very light dusting I didn't measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Congrats again? The almost 50" I've recorded here versus the 28.5" my parents in Lebanon County have recorded argues otherwise. Maybe take a break? Your judgment seems clouded and your posts have been annoyingly negative. Thank you... Were all hoping for a big one, and many of us have been jipped, but you wont hear it CONSTANTLY in my tone...is what it is. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Exactly, it all depends on what you like. If you like constant snow pack and low-end advisory snows this is perfect. You just have to know what to expect. I'd keep from getting excited yet if I was anywhere right now though, a lot of bust potential with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Well true central gang, writing is on the wall. Congrats southern PA again. Success is a journey, not a destination. dont treat every event like its December 23 and they're calling for a blizzard on the 24th into the 25th and you get dry slotted..... relax, enjoy the ride........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 -Deep breath.- Going to do my part now to keep this on-topic and keep my rant-style posts in the complaining thread. If I make another bad post in this thread, then feel free to 5-post me. Back on-topic. We knew the NAM was not going to last far north. Now the question is where the other models go. The GFS still seems to be the most southerly of all models, so, would not be surprised to see it tick NW again at 12z if we're truly nearing consensus. We'll probably have a definitive one by 0z with only little smidges of movement thereafter. It all comes down to the cold front it seems...dicey setup. Plus the upper-air could become a problem for those around the PA/MD border from what I've read. As for today, I can't speak for other areas, but BGM says our precip starts mainly after 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 16.6 degrees, heavy overcast right now, radar actually looks decent with precip. coming in quick. Should be an interesting day of weather! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Again? The biggest one-storm snow total this season down in Lancaster has been 3.8" and even that was before a quarter-inch of ice and rain fell - so when the system was done, we had like 2" of glacier. We've had so many mixing issues down here that no one storm has had enjoyable aftermath. I'm leery with this particular storm...especially since I've seen countless times where the cold air has lagged slower than progged when a cold front tries to press south in advance of a wave coming from the southwest. I'm not sure what to make of it yet either. The confluence to the north is impressive but the wave coming up and it being early March makes me think the front will struggle to go too far SE quickly. I'm hopeful for a couple of inches here but not counting on anything. Today should put me at 50" for the year, so it's all gravy from here. Thank you... Were all hoping for a big one, and many of us have been jipped, but you wont hear it CONSTANTLY in my tone...is what it is. Nut Exactly. I'm always hoping for a big storm, but I don't let that detract from the fact that even without one, the past two winters have been pretty great around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meatwad Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Schools here closing early today apparently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I would MUCH rather be in Hazelton than in Lancaster with a storm evolution like this. as noted, the models often "rush" the cold air in too fast and we watch rain and pray for pingers knowing the colder air is coming, while points N and W are into the white gold. Seen this all too many times, but based on current look, at least there is a little room for us down here in the LSV. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 keep in mind too that while the NAM has looked pretty... it has overdone QPF in just about all events too... slight changes in the advancement of the cold air could significantly change snowfall, which is why i still think it is going to be yet another very frustrating event to track... GFS is also not performing very well at 500mb level recently with the last couple of events Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I would MUCH rather be in Hazelton than in Lancaster with a storm evolution like this. as noted, the models often "rush" the cold air in too fast and we watch rain and pray for pingers knowing the colder air is coming, while points N and W are into the white gold. Seen this all too many times, but based on current look, at least there is a little room for us down here in the LSV. Nut We shall find out. There's no denying that the modeling has trended to favor southern areas but, on another end, you get the idea that we might not know the solution until it actually happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I would MUCH rather be in Hazelton than in Lancaster with a storm evolution like this. as noted, the models often "rush" the cold air in too fast and we watch rain and pray for pingers knowing the colder air is coming, while points N and W are into the white gold. Seen this all too many times, but based on current look, at least there is a little room for us down here in the LSV. Nut Exactly. Although, as PennMan said, the confluence is strong up NW, which would argue for less of a hang-up of the cold air...and the fact that the surface low that forms is not that defined argues for the solutions the globals are stating - focusing the heaviest snow after the flip down in S PA and N MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Snow starting here. I imagine it will be a battle to warm things up at the surface today...19/10 here currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Snow starting here. I imagine it will be a battle to warm things up at the surface today...19/10 here currently. Yeah I figured we'd be solidly into the 20s before anything got going. Snow is picking up now in Bellefonte. Radar looks nice just to our west, hopefully that can come through as a couple hours of heavy snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexP Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Schools closing around HBG in advance of today's anticipated snow and ice. I've been looking at the radar, though, and it's hard for me to see where this afternoon's weather is coming from. Is it that scattered-looking precip moving NE from WV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Snow mixed with sleet. Probably 80/20 in favor of snow. 25.1 currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 GFS still south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Schools here closing early today apparently. really?? wow....... That radar does look good to the West. I'm still at 23, i was thinking we'd be warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 It's now about 60/40 snow vs. sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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