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Allsnow

End of February/ Early March Discussion Thread 2015

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GFS looks similar to 12Z for later next week, some snow to rain (maybe ice with a high just NE of the area) looks nothing like the Euro.

The operational euro and even the ensembles have sucked this winter

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GFS looks similar to 12Z for later next week, some snow to rain (maybe ice with a high just NE of the area) looks nothing like the Euro.

There are multiple winter threats next week . The GFS will come south for the midweek event just as it is did for the Monday event.

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There were three major snowstorm is February 2010...the first...seemingly the best remembered...even though it had the least impact in NYC...put down huge snows south & west of NYC...but from NYC north & east it was mostly dry.  The second event was a major snowstorm a few days later in the NYC metro area...though it was mostly during the daylight hours and urban areas like NYC itself had some rain mixed in...holding down accumulations...in the countryside it was mostly snow...I recall a strange break midway through...seeing about 8 inches out here in the morning...then the noon break...then seven more inches in the afternoon / early evening.  New England mostly missed it. 

The third storm, at the end of the month, was a rain to snow event with a bizarre track...the offshore Low hooked west and into LI Sound...bringing cold west winds to its south (over NYC & LI) and snow...but up over Connecticut...they had east winds (with the low moving to their south / the counterclockwise flow around low pressure) and there it was mainly rain. 

The third storm was good but the dry slot was pretty long and frustrating to me.  But I can't complain because the storm year after (Boxing Day Blizzard) was great.

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Guest Pamela

The third storm was good but the dry slot was pretty long and frustrating to me.  But I can't complain because the storm year after (Boxing Day Blizzard) was great.

 

There were three more big snowstorms that next winter...one in December and two in January...the one on 1/12/11 was very snowy for CT & LI...like 18 inches on parts of LI...two feet in CT. 

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The third storm, at the end of the month, was a rain to snow event with a bizarre track...the offshore Low hooked west and into LI Sound...bringing cold west winds to its south (over NYC & LI) and snow...but up over Connecticut...they had east winds (with the low moving to their south / the counterclockwise flow around low pressure) and there it was mainly rain.

Even Burlington, Vermont got mostly rain. KNYC went over to snow about 6 hours before my area 20 miles north and east of New York City. For a while, it wsa snowing in Harrison and White Plains where I worked at the time and raining at the New York, Connecticut border where I live.

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There were three more big snowstorms that next winter...one in December and two in January...the one on 1/12/11 was very snowy for CT & LI...like 18 inches on parts of LI...two feet in CT.

We got about 25" out of Boxing Day where I was, and about 20" out of 1/28-29/2011. The ones in between were standard 6" or so.

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The third storm, at the end of the month, was a rain to snow event with a bizarre track...the offshore Low hooked west and into LI Sound...bringing cold west winds to its south (over NYC & LI) and snow...but up over Connecticut...they had east winds (with the low moving to their south / the counterclockwise flow around low pressure) and there it was mainly rain. 

Crazy changeover line.  I was in the Poconos for the storm (20"+).  After the storm I drove from the Poconos to Oxford CT along I-84.  Everybody west of the I-84 / I-684 junction had at least 12"+.  As soon as I crossed over I-684 into CT it was 1-2" after a lot of rain.  I believe there was a -AO from hell at the time.

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I would not worry about the mid week storm yet . MONDAY was warm on the GFS 4 days ago. We said ignore it . Now the model had 2 to 4 Sun into Mon and maybe a bit more.

Mondays storm gets to 940 s of Greenland. That should be able to press HP out of S Canada and Maine South for the next system , but I would wait to see where the Baroclinic zone sets up as the models get closer to Monday.

Worry about Monday 1st. That was not a cold system 4 days ago.

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I would not worry about the mid week storm yet . MONDAY was warm on the GFS 4 days ago. We said ignore it . Now the model had 2 to 4 Sun into Mon and maybe a bit more.

Mondays storm gets to 940 s of Greenland. That should be able to press HP out of S Canada and Maine South for the next system , but I would wait to see where the Baroclinic zone sets up as the models get closer to Monday.

Worry about Monday 1st. That was not a cold system 4 days ago.

 

6 GFS looked good for 2-4 inches to by eyes - Sunday/Monday

Surprised to thread for the event yet

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Even Burlington, Vermont got mostly rain. KNYC went over to snow about 6 hours before my area 20 miles north and east of New York City. For a while, it wsa snowing in Harrison and White Plains where I worked at the time and raining at the New York, Connecticut border where I live.

In Norwalk CT we went to snow at the very end. Still received 8.

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Not saying the euro ens are gospel but they show no signs of warm weather at all, temps will not be in the 20's but they will not be above 40. They try to build a east base neg nao at the end lol

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Not saying the euro ens are gospel but they show no signs of warm weather at all, temps will not be in the 20's but they will not be above 40. They try to build a east base neg nao at the end lol

Has been my argument . Don`t believe the warm hype . NEG EPO is not going anywhere and By day 11 a block may develop . 

You probably run cold through week 3 . 

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Has been my argument . Don`t believe the warm hype . NEG EPO is not going anywhere and By day 11 a block may develop . 

You probably run cold through week 3 . 

 

Still don't like the snow chances as we lose the pan ridge….mid week storm looks ugly now with the arctic High diving into the west

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Still don't like the snow chances as we lose the pan ridge….mid week storm looks ugly now with the arctic High diving into the west

Monday looks good . I was so sure  the last 2 were not going to cut and that they were snow threats I  stayed with it .

This time I am not sure about Wed Thrs  because eventually one of these will cut . 

I just want to see what Monday`s does before I know for sure . But the one behind Monday I do not like . 

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