Zelocita Weather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 There is no confluence or anything keeping this from coming further north really....therefore not surprised to see the adjustments, too little to late for us however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 06z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
danstorm Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 06z 12z Hires might as well be crack... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Hires might as well be crack... Never know with miller a storms. Even the regular nam is really close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Anything more than flurries around here would be a gift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 WPC 6z GEFS is also colder and further south than the op for midweek storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 RGEM Hmmm. I wonder how far north the 0.1" line makes it on the RGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 It definitely looks stronger than your typical southern slider so I could see more ticks NW, but that won't do much around here. Also accounting for subsidence and dry air these ticks would really only benefit SNJ who I believe might get in advisory criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Good morning everyone... I am so pissed that this storm tomorrow will miss us by 100 mph. Talk about a fast mover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeWeatherGeek Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Wow, that's one fast moving storm Talk about a fast mover...hahaha at least the south is getting their snow. I'm sure they've been waiting for this. Life is great I just wish we had the KU we wanted but without blocking we can't seem to catch a break. Maybe next year we'll get one. Maybe March could surprise us. How are the long term models depicting March? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Lol, someweathergeek, keep bringing the jokes, loving it ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 hahaha at least the south is getting their snow. I'm sure they've been waiting for this. Life is great I just wish we had the KU we wanted but without blocking we can't seem to catch a break. Maybe next year we'll get one. Maybe March could surprise us. How are the long term models depicting March? Sent from my iPhone Not going to happen unless a -NAO develops. Sucks that we didn't have a -NAO once again this winter. Most of the meteorologists did call for a -NAO winter in their winter outlooks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Not going to happen unless a -NAO develops. Sucks that we didn't have a -NAO once again this winter. Most of the meteorologists did call for a -NAO winter in their winter outlooks. I'm sure the -NAO is going to develop just in time for Spring and we're going to end up with a cool and rainy first half. The ensembles are already showing two possible drops back towards neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Plowsman Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Don't know what the doom n gloom is round here of late. Its only end of Feb! We've snowed in early April...n lots too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 I'm sure the -NAO is going to develop just in time for Spring and we're going to end up with a cool and rainy first half. The ensembles are already showing two possible drops back towards neutral. I'm already use to dreary springs around here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Everyone always says every winter that the NAO will flip and deliver a cold, rainy Spring but it never happens. Spring has been damn good the last few years. Lots of sunny, mild days and not that much rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Sorry, no massive 100 mile NW shift on the 12z GFS, but it does agree on an area of light precip over the region that could produce some flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Everyone always says every winter that the NAO will flip and deliver a cold, rainy Spring but it never happens. Spring has been damn good the last few years. Lots of sunny, mild days and not that much rain. A progressive pattern is not good for dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 A progressive pattern is not good for dry weather. Agree. The firehose out west will continue to pump in wet weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 Everyone always says every winter that the NAO will flip and deliver a cold, rainy Spring but it never happens. Spring has been damn good the last few years. Lots of sunny, mild days and not that much rain. He's not wrong though. Models don't want to budge the PDO and are hinting at the PNA going positive with at least a neutral NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 He's not wrong though. Models don't want to budge the PDO and are hinting at the PNA going positive with at least a neutral NAO. For March at least things look quite active. Whatever big warmup that was forecast next month isn't happening anytime soon. For me real Spring begins April 1st when lows are regularly above freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 For March at least things look quite active. Whatever big warmup that was forecast next month isn't happening anytime soon. For me real Spring begins April 1st when lows are regularly above freezing. For the city, the avg low goes above freezing on March 7th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 He's not wrong though. Models don't want to budge the PDO and are hinting at the PNA going positive with at least a neutral NAO. The PNA is already verifying slightly more positive than forecasted. While that should drop well into negative territory, it will start to rebound by the second week of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 For March at least things look quite active. Whatever big warmup that was forecast next month isn't happening anytime soon. For me real Spring begins April 1st when lows are regularly above freezing. That's if we don't have cold air around. For me, spring begins around April 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 For the city, the avg low goes above freezing on March 7th. We all know that NYC runs consistently warmer than all other surrounding areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 That's if we don't have cold air around. For me, spring begins around April 15.agreed that's a good date Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 agreed that's a good date We have seen snow in the first week of April many times. I think we had snow last April or the April before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 The Pacific jet shows no signs of slowing down anytime soon. Until that happens, we're not going to get any consistently dry weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 25, 2015 Share Posted February 25, 2015 We all know that NYC runs consistently warmer than all other surrounding areas. Especially compared to NW zones it's a huge difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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