Buffalo Bumble Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Why does KBUF continue to mention LO as being ice covered to an extent? Does anybody ever see Lake Erie produce prodigious totals with breaks in the ice cover never mind open water, correct, but with the whole West End of the lake WIDE OPEN Ontario won't produce?? I don't understand their forecast as there clearly is a response and a decent one at that! You can see the Lake light up on the West end and its being driven on 280-295 steady state flow for a while at least. Like I said, even flake size is better than recent events but as temps continue to drop i'd expect the flakes to continue to decrease in size. I'd expect some flags if this continues for more than three hours at least for Oswego County. Just looked at obs out of Hancock and their reporting a temp of 8 and a dp of 8 so i'd say their quite saturated wouldn't you, lol, so moisture at this point is definitely not lacking. This is bugging me too. They mention it again when discussing lake effect mid-week off Ontario. Here's the sat shot from today. Ice is largely restricted to far eastern basin. Don't they know to check this out??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Lol, come on guys, we are at historic levels. How could anyone route against this now?! I just think really cold weather in the middle of winter feels right; and I never thought I'd see a winter like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Watch out or DeltaT13 is gonna be all over you like a cheap suit! I'll raise my hand though and join the pussbag contingent. I love this weather, days on end of snow and clouds and cold. But the subzero with winds can suck it now that I'm older. This was what I always wanted sucking mud down on the i-95 corridor, where it didn't snow for two decades it seems. Save for winter of 95/96. And it rarely breaks zero there. And the day after a storm it clears out and is sunny. You just don't get the consistent boreal atmosphere down there. We are in a sweet spot up here near the lakes, if you like snow, clouds and cold. Seen the photos out of Atlantic provinces in Canada? Epic stuff. I remember a winter in the past 10-15 years or so where they had similar. Truly astounding stuff up in New Brunswick, PEI, NF. Would love to spend a winter like this up there. This month has been like living in Quebec City, temperature wise, I think. How they can stand such consistent cold is beyond me. Avg Feb temp at KSYR is 9.7 F thru yesterday. Hoping next week is the coup de gras! I've never been a fan of the cold. I love the snow. I'm not a snow depth guy really either. I mean its nice to have, but unless its a result of a big LES snowstorm it means its been really cold for a long time. My perfect winter climo is 25-30 and consistent heavy snows. In summer I love the heat though. Give me high 80s with high dews everyday! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's official -7F is the new #record low at the #Buffalo airport. This breaks the old record of -6F set back in 1889! #bufwx If its going to be this cold lets just break some records. Ok, now that another record is in the books can we lose the arctic vice grip locked squarely on our __ sacks (sorry Delta - add me to the wimp club). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Lol, come on guys, we are at historic levels. How could anyone route against this now?! I just think really cold weather in the middle of winter feels right; and I never thought I'd see a winter like this. Good point - let's keep it rolling through end of the month and step up in March after we land in the history books. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I could never live in a place where the cold is like this most of the winter. This is ridiculous. I know you hate the cold, but have you visited Niagara Falls this month? What an incredible sight! You couldn't get photo opportunities like that if the temperature was 25F! Good point - let's keep it rolling through end of the month and step up in March after we land in the history books. This month looks set to be historic for Toronto too, likely finishing as: 1) the coldest February on record at YYZ, 2) the coldest calendar month on record at YYZ and 3) the fourth coldest February on record in downtown Toronto since 1840 (after 1875, 1934 and 1885). For Ottawa, this will likely be the coldest February since 1934 and the coldest February on record at YOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Lol, come on guys, we are at historic levels. How could anyone route against this now?! I just think really cold weather in the middle of winter feels right; and I never thought I'd see a winter like this. Don't get me wrong...We are in the territory of the famous winters of 1977, 78, 79, might as well go for it and establish some records. I was in southeast VA for those winters and even the James and York river froze at least two of those years, similar to colonial times in the Little Ice Age of the 1700s. I'd like to see this run last till climo spring. In fact, if I recall correctly, April 1983 was a big snow producer in CNY, at least down in BGM. Last winter certainly went the distance, I suspect this one will also. I'm ok with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I know you hate the cold, but have you visited Niagara Falls this month? What an incredible sight! You couldn't get photo opportunities like that if the temperature was 25F! This month looks set to be historic for Toronto too, likely finishing as: 1) the coldest February on record at YYZ, 2) the coldest calendar month on record at YYZ and 3) the fourth coldest February on record in downtown Toronto since 1840 (after 1875, 1934 and 1885). For Ottawa, this will likely be the coldest February since 1934 and the coldest February on record at YOW. What are the YOW stats for Feb? You guys are a lot colder than we are on average. If SYR is 9.7F, you must be several degrees lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 This is bugging me too. They mention it again when discussing lake effect mid-week off Ontario. Here's the sat shot from today. Ice is largely restricted to far eastern basin. Don't they know to check this out??? t1.15054.1552.LakeOntario.143.250m.jpg There's something seriously off with the stated Lake Ontario ice coverage. Unless we are not seeing sea ice that's being credited via some other, more accurate, source. I give that no more than 1/4-1/3rd ice coverage by cursory inspection...40% being generous with a difficult-to-observe sea ice consideration. You don't have to be an engineer for 30 years to conclude that. I'll hang my hat on my observational/analytical skills alongside anyone's. Caveat is that we're all looking at the same data.I can buy NWS Mets swagging a "less effective" lake mechanism for LES given the coverage on the lake, but shorter fetch? Not a buyer. On a NW flow such as the photo above, that fetch decrease is a few miles at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I have to say, as tired as I am of the unrelenting cold, as sore as my body is from continuous snow removal (both from the driveway and the roof) - it was absolutely beautiful today when the sun came out in the afternoon. The warm, late day sun raking across the snow drifts and plowed piles created some fantastic scenes. I've never seen snow formations this deep with so much texture, like sand dunes in the desert or at the beach. My line has always been, "I don't care how cold it is or how much it snows in February, but by March I'm ready for spring." So the next 5 days may as well be as cold as possible...let's break some records and then get the warm up started. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 What are the YOW stats for Feb? You guys are a lot colder than we are on average. If SYR is 9.7F, you must be several degrees lower. Thus far, Ottawa has had a mean temperature of about 4F this month. Toronto has had a mean of minus 12 Celsius thus far( about 10F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I have to say, as tired as I am of the unrelenting cold, as sore as my body is from continuous snow removal (both from the driveway and the roof) - it was absolutely beautiful today when the sun came out in the afternoon. The warm, late day sun raking across the snow drifts and plowed piles created some fantastic scenes. I've never seen snow formations this deep with so much texture, like sand dunes in the desert or at the beach. My line has always been, "I don't care how cold it is or how much it snows in February, but by March I'm ready for spring." So the next 5 days may as well be as cold as possible...let's break some records and then get the warm up started. Couldn't have said it better myself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 00Z NAM wings Cape Cod Wed/Thurs and hammers Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, PEI, Maine, with 12"/25cm easily. It seems like every ripple that moves off the mid Atlantic coast this winter blows up. The baroclinic boundary must be especially ferocious this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Im ready for ALOT more! I hope there is no change in the pattern for March- well except for a more active southern storm stream! I'm looking forward to some fun over running snow this weekend followed by an Epic snow event sometime in early or mid march. Hell, lets do both. This winter ain't got me down. No sir! Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Well looking at 00z GFS, it continues the idea of the western ridge retrograding a bit west into the pacific, allowing a trough to temporarily dive south into the SW US where it takes up residence for several days, and sends waves of precip ENE. First one next Sun night and Monday...0C/850 stays south of CNY/WNY, perhaps up to central PA/NJ...after that shoots east, another wave of precip moves east, more south, until the trough ejects bodily ENE, abou midweek. This batch would feature pretty decent qpf also and looks potentially a bit warmer. I don't want to mico analyze this as its over a week out an sure to change but we be a nice hit also. After that, in the back hours of the run, the whole pattern relaxes. But that's just the op run. So I guess at this point, I'd agree that a pattern change is coming and it coul be a snowy one for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Alright alright....Let winter do its thing for another month or so and break some records. Only because I'll be here in Mid April. Costa Rica!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 As long as we get rid of the unbearable temps. We've broken all kinds of records and we all know March can be either pleasant or downright nasty so we'll see which this March will be from its first week of weather. Doubt this cold air completely disappears all together as the SST configuration, which I believe aided this year's brutal Arctic Attack along with the persistent - phase of the EPO and that looks to stay put but obviously seasonal changes should start taking place either way. If it's a wicked one, which I said from the beginning that Weak Nino's are notorious for extending Winter well into the Spring, then so be it as we then could focus our attention on breaking snow records, lol, cause if this keeps up we will surely do so without any issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I've always wanted to goto Costa Rica. That place looks off the charts. Very expensive, I assume? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Woke up to the coldest temperature so far this winter. It got down to -21F currently at -20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I've always wanted to goto Costa Rica. That place looks off the charts. Very expensive, I assume? Not to bad actually. Now is the perfect time to travel as fuel prices are down and flights are much cheaper than a few years ago. This one is an all inclusive 5 star resort and got a great deal on bookit.com. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leelee Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Good that you guys want more snow, significant snowstorms the first week of March may cause my breaking point. This month has been a HORRIBLE way to live. I worry this late winter may cause some real displacement from the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 A friend of mine is a farmer and he's quite happy about these brutal temps and snow. It keeps those pesky bugs and bacteria at bay with plenty of h2o in the ground for planting in the Spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Question, why doesn't the NWS BUF page have records listed in the 'News Headlines' section anymore? I keep missing them for BUF/ROC/ART... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
champy Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Interesting read on the case of the missing snow! http://www.syracuse.com/weather/index.ssf/2015/02/why_did_10_inches_of_snow_mysteriously_disappear_from_syracuse_record_books.html#incart_river Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 For the record, I do have one reason to hate the cold.... beekeeping. I'm a hobbyist beekeeper and my hives got absolutely clobbered this year. I have only been doing this a few years but from the people I have spoken with...this will be one of the worst years on record. I peeked into several of my hives on Sunday and it was a complete loss. I expect we'll hear about historical bee losses this Spring in the entire Northeast...and that isnt good for anybody. That said, my bees are already dead so I've got nothing to lose now, bring on more cold. Anyway, it's very sad and I wanted to vent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I kept a single hive for a few years when I lived in Virginia. Also had a 3 frame observation hive inside the house. Bees are fascinating creatures. Unfortunately, we never got much of a honey yield because of drought conditions for those years. I imagine the combination of the harsh cold and the various diseases/parasites that have been plaguing them recently will take a big toll this winter. Looking forward, I can't see any reason to expect March, at least the first half, to NOT be cold and snowy. Even if the pattern relaxes somewhat and goes toward something more zonal, there is just too much cold air still in Canada, too much snow cover. I would think at least the first half will be several degrees below normal if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 You know what I find a bit weird, the fact that I haven't seen a single Deer all season long?? Maybe they can't easily navigate through waist high snow, without drifts, lol, so maybe that's why?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Next round of LES arrives early tomorrow morning... advisory for Oswego and Lewis counties for 3-6" of snow. Although it will be a much shorter window of LES it looks like a good 12 hour period or so of pretty good LES parameters with a well aligned 270-280 flow. Still unsure of how much ice there actually is around here at this point. Visible satellite showed what looks to be some thin/broken ice towards the east central portion of the Lake, but for the most part the lake remains open. BUF even mentioned that ice cover is less than they previously thought. P&C has 3-6" here from tonight through tomorrow night which is at this point just another layer of fluff that will have to melt eventually. Depths on campus are close to 2-3' where the snow hasn't completely blown away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Ummm...I'm going to go out on a limb, and say that at some point the advisory will be upgraded to warnings for Oswego Co....conditions for some 6-12 hours look really good....a 270 wind (even with some quasi ice coverage)will produce rates that blow an "advisory" out of the water....look for a foot +/- a few inches somewhere in Oswego Co. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 A friend of mine is a farmer and he's quite happy about these brutal temps and snow. It keeps those pesky bugs and bacteria at bay with plenty of h2o in the ground for planting in the Spring. Don't forget as well that there were some sub -20F temps in much of WNY and CNY, a threshold where 80% or more of emerald ash borer larvae will die. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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