BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Nice discussion going on the Ohio forums about what was more impressive March 2012 or Feb. 2015. This was my post. Obviously Feb. 2015 was more impressive for Syracuse beating the record by 3 degrees!! This is a tough one but have to go with March 2012. March 2012 was the warmest March on record for the Buffalo area. Average temp in March 2012: 47.4 2nd warmest on record for March: 44.5 Feb 2015 was the coldest month in history for Buffalo going back to 1871 with a mean temp of 10.9 The 2nd coldest month on record was 11.6 in 1934 For a record to be broken by 3+ deg is phenomenal, but this is close as this year brought the coldest month in recorded history. How much above normal did that month (March 2012) average? Edit...never mind, answered my own question: +13.4 at BUF, +13.0 at ROC. I remember that string of 75-80 deg days quite well. Turned out to be a disaster for farmers, and especially fruit crops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 How much above normal did that month (March 2012) average? Edit...never mind, answered my own question: +13.4 at BUF, +13.0 at ROC. I remember that string of 75-80 deg days quite well. Turned out to be a disaster for farmers, and especially fruit crops. 13.4 warmer than average for March 2012 15.1 colder than average for Feb. 2015 After reviewing these stats Feb. 2015 is much more impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 How much above normal did that month (March 2012) average? Edit...never mind, answered my own question: +13.4 at BUF, +13.0 at ROC. I remember that string of 75-80 deg days quite well. Turned out to be a disaster for farmers, and especially fruit crops. Sent you a PM Coh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 That's a tough call...March '12 vs Feb '15 for most impressive, or ridiculous, if you will. From a KSYR standpoint, just checked...March 12 averaged +12.3F, which is a gigantic anomaly for a whole month. Just finished Feb '15 at -16.7F, with 59.9" of snow, #2 on snowiest Feb list. In March '12 KSYR did have about 7" of snow, first part of month, so it wasn't quite a wall to wall torch. Clearly, Feb '15 wins from a Syracuse anomaly standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Thursday beginning to look more interesting than tomorrow. Right now 00Z NAM pastes PA into southern/central New England...(yes, Boston would "win" again). We would need the baroclinic zone shifted maybe 50-100 miles north to jackpot in CNY/WNY, or get into the noteworthy snow. GFS was more suppressed with this final wave feature on previous runs, not sure about other guidance. Will have to look at 00z GFS for any trend. Not getting too interested in Thursday yet as we still have to endure another 2-3" "mail it in" system tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Thursday beginning to look more interesting than tomorrow. Right now 00Z NAM pastes PA into southern/central New England...(yes, Boston would "win" again). We would need the baroclinic zone shifted maybe 50-100 miles north to jackpot in CNY/WNY, or get into the noteworthy snow. GFS was more suppressed with this final wave feature on previous runs, not sure about other guidance. Will have to look at 00z GFS for any trend. Not getting too interested in Thursday yet as we still have to endure another 2-3" "mail it in" system tomorrow... Yeah the NAM is the clear outlier. I'm taking the suppressed view on this one and it stays mainly south of the NYS line. Kind of funny with these last few storms. Last storm: To far south/light snow Storm tomorrow: to far north/mix Next storm: to far south/nothing After that it looks like a few weak clippers and than a warmer pattern change. Been tough to get good synoptic events this year. Last year in March we had several. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think March 2012 was more impressive from a regional standpoint. Keep in mind there is a smaller standard deviation in March than in February, so the absolute temperature anomaly won't tell the whole story. Halifax hit 80 in March and they had never hit 80 before May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 I think March 2012 was more impressive from a regional standpoint. Keep in mind there is a smaller standard deviation in March than in February, so the absolute temperature anomaly won't tell the whole story. Halifax hit 80 in March and they had never hit 80 before May. March has a smaller Std Dev than February for temp? How is that. Would have thought more variability in March results in higher std dev. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 3, 2015 Author Share Posted March 3, 2015 12z NAM takes away the potential for Thursday.....Bring on Spring!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 12z NAM takes away the potential for Thursday.....Bring on Spring!! Indeed! In the meantime...light snow has begun with a gusty ESE wind and temp of 22 F. Should be interesting to see how much and how quickly the atmosphere warms up today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WNash Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Moderate snow now in Getzville at 24F. The front end might be a bit better than forecasted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Moderate to borderline heavy snow here going on 3 hours. BUF will bust too low for snowfall in WNY. I believe 1 or 2 inches was forecast before the changeover. I'm estimating 3" has fallen already. It's accumulating quite efficiently here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Snow rate has definitely picked up here, probably about an inch of accumulation so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Moderate to borderline heavy snow here going on 3 hours. BUF will bust too low for snowfall in WNY. I believe 1 or 2 inches was forecast before the changeover. I'm estimating 3" has fallen already. It's accumulating quite efficiently here. 3.2" as of 15 mins ago! we still got about an hour of some heavy snow to go thru before the changeover.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ENYsnow Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Moderate to borderline heavy snow here going on 3 hours. BUF will bust too low for snowfall in WNY. I believe 1 or 2 inches was forecast before the changeover. I'm estimating 3" has fallen already. It's accumulating quite efficiently here. Hope that trend continues to your east! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Bumble Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Hope that trend continues to your east! Judging by the current radar, you look golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Moderate to borderline heavy snow falling, decent flake size. On radar, looks like the transition zone is getting pretty close to Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ice pellets have arrived. 3:40 pm. 2" new snow before the change over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 3, 2015 Share Posted March 3, 2015 Ice pellets have arrived. 3:40 pm. 2" new snow before the change over. Same here on the NE side of KROC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 3" here and a light glaze on top. Thursday a swing and a miss. By end of next week it's full steam ahead to spring. Skiing this weekend before the conditions get springlike. I'm about right at seasonal norm for snow now, about 125". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Wow, it's actually above freezing for the first time in over a month. 33 F. It's a start... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Pretty crazy for March 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 4, 2015 Share Posted March 4, 2015 Nice day to send the kids to school huh? I saw at least 4 buses that got into an accident this morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Well, FWIW, appears next week's warmup is looking more and more transient...maybe 3 Days vs a week plus. Too bad we won't steal anybody's snow with the Thursday system, but doesn't appear likely. We broke 32 around SYR today. Not by a lot but it did finally happen. Dug the grill out from the drift it was under and did up some steaks to celebrate! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted March 5, 2015 Author Share Posted March 5, 2015 Well, FWIW, appears next week's warmup is looking more and more transient...maybe 3 Days vs a week plus. Too bad we won't steal anybody's snow with the Thursday system, but doesn't appear likely. We broke 32 around SYR today. Not by a lot but it did finally happen. Dug the grill out from the drift it was under and did up some steaks to celebrate! Wow! I need a front end loader still to get to mine!! Of course, the snow off my roof, is between my patio door and the grill...so I guess it'll be still a bit before I fire it up!! Enjoy!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 A surprise SN+ outside now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 Wow! I need a front end loader still to get to mine!! Of course, the snow off my roof, is between my patio door and the grill...so I guess it'll be still a bit before I fire it up!! Enjoy!! I was looking at getting on the roof this weekend, but where would the snow go? On my pool and patio deck to really re-bury the grill...not sure. I'm just leery of getting a 2" rain on 3 feet of snow depth up there. So far, doesn't look likely but that can change. Hell, could also get two feet of snow on it just as likely...that warmup looking less prolonged now. Last winter "went the distance" and I suspect this one will also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 I was looking at getting on the roof this weekend, but where would the snow go? On my pool and patio deck to really re-bury the grill...not sure. I'm just leery of getting a 2" rain on 3 feet of snow depth up there. So far, doesn't look likely but that can change. Hell, could also get two feet of snow on it just as likely...that warmup looking less prolonged now. Last winter "went the distance" and I suspect this one will also. Long range looks warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted March 5, 2015 Share Posted March 5, 2015 LES firing up. Hope we get a couple more inches of fluff. already have 1.5". Regarding the warmup, the trend is not our friend. I don't see any signs of a BIG March storm. Just west coast fronts and action in the inter mountain west with some far NE back door fronts and minor clippers. Hope I'm wrong!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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