Syrmax Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Looks like some sort of banded structure from around Dunkirk ENE towards almost ROC. This is starting to look like an overachiever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I would be surprised if a lot of you guys finish under 6" at this rate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 KBGMs AFD needs to incorporate some radar trend observation...if the best ascent is moving in from 00z-06z per models, and looking at what's fallen already...I'd say a lot of their northern areas are going to reach Warning criteria. Not that it's worth throwing up warnings at this point but it appears several hours of 1+"/hr snow is in the offing, not some brief period of steady snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 IDK, it snowing nicely now and looks like it will be for several more hrs so who knows but I gotta be approaching 5" already since it began so I'll definitely hit warning criteria but like you said, at this point does it matter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 IDK, it snowing nicely now and looks like it will be for several more hrs so who knows but I gotta be approaching 5" already since it began so I'll definitely hit warning criteria but like you said, at this point does it matter? These are some of the best sustained dendrites of the season, without question. There's no doubt we hit Warning criteria with this one. My suspision is everyone was sucked in by that qpf min over the finger lakes. QPF fields are the most notoriously unreliable on NWP but we all look at them cuz they're seductive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Snowing heavily with big flake size. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 look at the big flick on radar, there's a big hole of precip from say, Cortland-Elmira south over a lot of PA. Heavier precip on the north and south sides. This wasn't all that well represented on NWP from what I recall, other than the NAM yday, which was showing a heavier qpf/snow max along I90 from say ROC to ALB. Although NAM backed off this this morning, it appears it had the right idea picking up on this. You're gonna end up with 6-10" on the northern edge of the system it appears. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 It's absolutely puking right now, wow, what a horrible bust on BGM's part Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Just measured, 5-3/4" at 6pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Just measured, 5-3/4" at 6pm About the same for me. I'm surprised the snow is so fluffy - lake effect like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Just saw WSYR's blog again. New forecaster, same theme...mention warmer at all costs. Today's effort is stronger though, insisting on a pattern change coming that will favor normal to perhaps above normal temps at least on a temporary basis. I haven't looked at 12z NWP in detail but for a quick scan...but I just don't see it. If you still have a PNA pattern in the means, including ensembles, how is this indicative of a warmer pattern? About the best I can say is the PV is shown not as strong or southward in the mean. Run to run, the western ridge is shown centered slightly more offshore west, or east over the far western plains, but still troughing over the east and northeast CONUS. This is borderline ineptitude and clearly an agenda being pushed. Granted, they'll be right if they keep saying this long enough, broken clock method. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Just got back from snowmobiling and measured 7" of new snow in Phoenix. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 I'm at my GF's house in E. Syracuse....5.5"...I guess I'll be snowblowing.......again!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 As long as this is like this then there will be NO sustained warmth in the East in the foreseeable future!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Nothing for nothing but this could of been a low end warning for 6 to 10. Most people do try and do their best with what ever comes their way. Getting deep out there. Some concern for a Hudson Valley Runner these next two weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 As long as this is like this then there will be NO sustained warmth in the East in the foreseeable future!! What do the PNA and NAO forecasts look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Nothing for nothing but this could of been a low end warning for 6 to 10. Most people do try and do their best with what ever comes their way. Getting deep out there. Some concern for a Hudson Valley Runner these next two weeks.Agree, and to be fair, this was a typical advisory to southern tier and a high end advisory or low end warning for KBGM's northern counties and KBUF'S eastern Lake Ontario counties.. NWP hinted at this but tough to fine tune too much. I haven't done a liquid equivalent but Its a fluffy snow so ratio of 15 or 20:1 will probably verify. What helped us was apparently a solid DGZ in the WAA, as evidenced by large sized dendrites for most of this event. We're about wrapped up it appears based on radar, maybe another inch if we get some more backfilling soon. Overall a pretty solid little storm around here. Now we get to see what the lake can offer later tomorrow. It is pretty deep. I had 27" depth this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Just saw WSYR's blog again. New forecaster, same theme...mention warmer at all costs. Today's effort is stronger though, insisting on a pattern change coming that will favor normal to perhaps above normal temps at least on a temporary basis. I haven't looked at 12z NWP in detail but for a quick scan...but I just don't see it. If you still have a PNA pattern in the means, including ensembles, how is this indicative of a warmer pattern? About the best I can say is the PV is shown not as strong or southward in the mean. Run to run, the western ridge is shown centered slightly more offshore west, or east over the far western plains, but still troughing over the east and northeast CONUS. This is borderline ineptitude and clearly an agenda being pushed. Granted, they'll be right if they keep saying this long enough, broken clock method. That "so called" pattern change keeps getting pushed back by each model run, i'll believe it when i see it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 That "so called" pattern change keeps getting pushed back by each model run, i'll believe it when i see it.. What pattern change are people expecting? Its the end of February, lol, and I believe March marks the beginning of Spring (if one actually exists this year) so if people are still looking for a pattern change, it'll come when we go from Winter to Spring, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Cold will rule the roost until the Great Emperor of the North decides to loosen his grip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phoenixny Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Agree, and to be fair, this was a typical advisory to southern tier and a high end advisory or low end warning for KBGM's northern counties and KBUF'S eastern Lake Ontario counties.. NWP hinted at this but tough to fine tune too much. I haven't done a liquid equivalent but Its a fluffy snow so ratio of 15 or 20:1 will probably verify. What helped us was apparently a solid DGZ in the WAA, as evidenced by large sized dendrites for most of this event. We're about wrapped up it appears based on radar, maybe another inch if we get some more backfilling soon. Overall a pretty solid little storm around here. Now we get to see what the lake can offer later tomorrow. It is pretty deep. I had 27" depth this morning. Spot on! My worry(or not!) is a juicy bomb up the coast with 2 to 3" liquid equivalent. Part of me wishes it and part of me doesn't. Last 4 weeks have been premo snowmobiling but I will get water in the house soon with damming. Going up on the roof again tomorrow. Could be delays with school again on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 This last batch should do it for the steadier of the snow before scattered snow showers enter the picture and before the Lake opens fire ( according to KBGM it won't) on the counties bordering the SE corner and North this time as the winds look as bit more westerly as opposed to the Northerly component of late, but we shall see what we shall see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Agree, and to be fair, this was a typical advisory to southern tier and a high end advisory or low end warning for KBGM's northern counties and KBUF'S eastern Lake Ontario counties.. NWP hinted at this but tough to fine tune too much. I haven't done a liquid equivalent but Its a fluffy snow so ratio of 15 or 20:1 will probably verify. What helped us was apparently a solid DGZ in the WAA, as evidenced by large sized dendrites for most of this event. We're about wrapped up it appears based on radar, maybe another inch if we get some more backfilling soon. Overall a pretty solid little storm around here. Now we get to see what the lake can offer later tomorrow. It is pretty deep. I had 27" depth this morning. I don't think their going to be quite that high as there was a period where the snow came down as graupel, at least where I am, and CNY WX also said the snow looked icy in one of his posts so the ratios might be a little surprising meaning lower than one would think with such low temps in the upper teens!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I don't think their going to be quite that high as there was a period where the snow came down as graupel, at least where I am, and CNY WX also said the snow looked icy in one of his posts so the ratios might be a little surprising meaning lower than one would think with such low temps in the upper teens!! Just measured 7.5" at 8pm. Looks like some backfilling is occurring so who knows, maybe another 1-2" is possible. I'd guess about 1/2"/hr rate attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 KBUF didn't do any better than KBGM unless they changed their original map because I do remember one that had higher totals but I cant remember. Either way if this was, in fact their forecasted amounts, then they both busted horribly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 It was accurate for my location! 2" at most here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coh Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 That "so called" pattern change keeps getting pushed back by each model run, i'll believe it when i see it.. Like I said yesterday...it's always 10 days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The snow has stopped here. Just went outside and measured 7.25 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY-LES FREAK Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 KBUF didn't do any better than KBGM unless they changed their original map because I do remember one that had higher totals but I cant remember. Either way if this was, in fact their forecasted amounts, then they both busted horribly! I said nothing about the finger Lakes as they were always progged to receive quite a bit less than us up here! Our forecast was for 2-4" and I got 8+ so for my area it was a colossal bust as was the last event! It doesn't even matter at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 A spotter near Lyndonville was reporting a snow depth of 51" as of early this morning! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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