Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The Euro ensembles that have the trough develop it over Long Island and then crush SNE. Only 1 member gives NYC a warning criteria snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 These situation always favor sne. Wagons north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Feb14.jpg That crazy at this point to have high confidence!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mob1 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 All I want is 2 inches of snow, low single digit temperatures and 45 mph wind gusts, it's very attainable and will feel like your average day in Antarctica. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 All I want is 2 inches of snow, low single digit temperatures and 45 mph wind gusts, it's very attainable and will feel like your average day in Antarctica.honestly I don't want 2 inches I want a blizzard followed by 0 degrees. From what I see these storms favor Boston a lot more than nyc unless we had some Greenland blocking but I guess I can get my 2 inches and run away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 These situation always favor sne. Wagons north Yes but this isnt an ordinary inverted trough. The Euro and Gfs are close to a bigger storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The Euro ensembles that have the trough develop it over Long Island and then crush SNE. Only 1 member gives NYC a warning criteria snowfall.Huge red flag but not unexpected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Nam is pretty far north with the transfer. Most likely hit with inv trough would be sne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Nam is pretty far north with the transfer. Most likely hit with inv trough would be sne.high confidence that SNE does better than us with the next two clippers but I wouldn't trust the nam for anything anytime. That is the worst model of all! It's worse than navgem for Petes sake lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Feb14.jpg High confidence in overall forecast? You could end up correct, but to use the phrase "high confidence" at this lead time, given the set-up, seems absurd to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Before everyone gets all hot and bothered, our energy for this system is still north of the northern territories in Canada where sampling is rather poor. Until we know how the Thursday system unfolds and the energy dives south from where it currently sits, I would not write off the weekend system just yet. I do admit that i'm a bit skeptical of anything significant, but I would not be shocked to see some trends that would lead to portions of the NYC metro (especially LI) to see accumulating snow in conjunction with this Arctic outbreak. Its a very thread-the-needle situation as I stated days ago, but it is one that you cannot write off so easily with all the different players involved (IE height rises after Thursday, PAC energy, and trough axis going negative in time...etc) Again, I may be off-base here since I'm typing this in my PMET class and multi-tasking, but I thought I'd just give my two cents. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Confidence may be low here but without a doubt in my mind I think Boston gets another foot or more easy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winter201415 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Confidence may be low here but without a doubt in my mind I think Boston gets another foot or more easy.snowski this may be a little too east even for them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Light snow Saturday afternoon for the area. Less digging then 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 INV SNE . NNE at hour 90 ...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z GFS PBP - Congrats SNE. That's all you need to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yep inv feature way north now. North of ct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 There really wasn't much of an inverted trough this run. Most of the snow was associated with the actual surface low. One positive, the surface low shifted about 75 miles West at 06z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 .1 for the area. .25+ for sne. Downeast Maine gets hit the hardest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So we dont even get an inch but Boston scores another which they dont want or need? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This INV is probably still too far S Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So we dont even get an inch but Boston scores another which they dont want or need? Close to .75 for Bos north! One thing is the engery is tending north still. Any further north and its congrats Maine and that's it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 There really wasn't much of an inverted trough this run. Most of the snow was associated with the actual surface low. One positive, the surface low shifted about 75 miles West at 06z Sunday. Wrong. It's into sne... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I thought this run was actually an improvement in terms of getting a more consolidated system and one surface low. The problem is that the 500mb low tracked too far North. If this had dug a bit more it would have been a game changer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I thought this run was actually an improvement in terms of getting a more consolidated system and one surface low. The problem is that the 500mb low tracked too far North. If this had dug a bit more it would have been a game changer. The Pna ridge is being knocked down and the energy is becoming more progressive...doesn't matter how consolidated the energy is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The Pna ridge is being knocked down and the energy is becoming more progressive...doesn't matter how consolidated the energy is Did you notice how much more the energy out West has been digging the last several runs? While it is knocking down the PNA ridge it doesn't appear to be deamplifying the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Is anyone really shocked about this? What just happened the other day? Boston got cranked.... Really really cranked as in a top 5 event all time and we had a .10" of ice and flurries. This time the trend is not your friend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 WOW at Boston on N . Another snowstorm and the back end is through Minus 20 air . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 WOW at Boston on N . Another snowstorm and the back end is through Minus 20 air . for now-with a continued trend north, it's congrats Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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