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Forecast/storm discussions and part II Manitoba Mauler


Damage In Tolland
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Heck I discovered tonight that our snowfall web graphic had an error in the code that made 18-24" and 24-36" the same color. We didn't have Ginxy's chartreuse until we hit 36-48".

 

I managed to find the error in the coding (as simple as a duplicate number 10).

 

But these are the differences people notice between offices.

 

I thought GYX was really good with this one, honestly not kissing ass either. Several others liked the map earlier today too I noted.

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Makes it real hard to collaborate a pretty map when you get one office running nude through the streets.

 

This is probably an exercise in futility considering most people around here, but folks really need to beware of some caution flags. I'm not saying this won't be a great storm, but locking in record totals from NYC through BOS is dangerous. If you check BOX's experimental snowfall graphics, their most likely total is only an inch or two lower than the maximum, and 10-15 inches higher in some cases than their minimum. That to me says it all. We (as an organization) got a little carried away and started forecasting totals too close to the maximum possible rather than the most likely.

 

I like thinking about it in terms of the HPC graphics. I can't post graphics right now for whatever reason, but in essence 3 out of 4 forecasts are greater than 18 inches, and 3 out of 4 forecasts are less than 27 inches. There's maybe the range you should be thinking about, rather than 24-36 inches.

I agree.

I thought the initial 24-36" right out of the gate was silly.

I went 18"+.

 

24-36 is a range reserved for about 6 hours out, imo.

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Cherry picking the key points from the diagnostic they found no issues with the NAM/GFS init.   I thought I'd read the EC ENS were in total agreement with the OP, sounds like that wasn't exactly the case.

 

BEYOND 12Z/27...A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND 12Z ECMWF APPEARS BEST
AS THE GFS LIFTS THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW TO THE NORTH...QUICKER
THAN PREFERRED. HOWEVER...THE 21Z SREF MEAN...12Z EC MEAN AND 00Z
NAM ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND SUPPORT A TRACK THAT IS FASTER TO
DEPART THE PRIMARY SURFACE LOW COMPARED TO THE 12Z ECMWF
.
THEREFORE REGARDING POSITION/STRENGTH...A BLEND OF THE 00Z NAM AND
12Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED.

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This could be the Blizzard of 2005 all over again...aka, boston mets discounting snows on the Cape, only to scramble at the last minute and jack up accumulations, or just refuse to acknoledge the fact that we got 3 feet of snow (I'm looking at you Pete Bouchard, called for 8-16 with a changeover to rain, ended up with 36).

 

Time and time again there's too much model hugging when it comes to rain/snow lines over the Cape with these historic storms (and I'm not just saying that b/c I live there as I'm in the city now). As the LP bombs out heavy banding makes it very hard for temps to actually climb above freezing and change precip (look at 850mb temps and you'll see exactly what im talking about).

Canadian and NAM have Cape as Jackpot with 28-34. This one will be interesting...

I think I have a shot to beat the 25" I got in that one....maybe even Nemo's 27"

 

#1 Is April '97...only 30-spot of my life.

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Heck I discovered tonight that our snowfall web graphic had an error in the code that made 18-24" and 24-36" the same color. We didn't have Ginxy's chartreuse until we hit 36-48".

 

I managed to find the error in the coding (as simple as a duplicate number 10).

 

But these are the differences people notice between offices.

 

what is that colors name anyways? Lol

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I thought GYX was really good with this one, honestly not kissing ass either. Several others liked the map earlier today too I noted.

 

I'm honestly not trying to be a wet blanket, but record storms are record storms for a reason - they are rare.

 

As Ray just said, you kind of leave the record stuff for when you see the whites of its eyes.

 

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I think I have a shot to beat the 25" I got in that one....maybe even Nemo's 27"

 

#1 Is April '97...only 30-spot of my life.

Here's NAM Output for Hyannis down on the Cape. All precipiation falling as snow. Total QPF 2.75.

                 SFC     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK SUN  7P 25-JAN   1.6   -10.3    1011      51       1             537     529    MON  1A 26-JAN  -2.2    -9.4    1017      66      19    0.00     539     526    MON  7A 26-JAN  -2.6    -8.8    1019      76      65    0.00     541     526    MON  1P 26-JAN  -0.3    -5.8    1018      83      87    0.00     543     529    MON  7P 26-JAN   0.9    -5.8    1014      91      93    0.09     544     533    TUE  1A 27-JAN   0.8    -4.6    1006      98      97    0.44     542     538    TUE  7A 27-JAN   0.1    -5.6     994      97      99    0.83     534     539    TUE  1P 27-JAN   0.9    -5.9     989      94      82    0.70     528     537    TUE  7P 27-JAN   0.0    -8.7     991      93      63    0.39     526     533    WED  1A 28-JAN  -3.4    -8.9     999      91      99    0.20     526     527    WED  7A 28-JAN  -6.4   -12.0    1007      88      91    0.09     531     525    WED  1P 28-JAN  -3.9    -9.9    1012      86      86    0.01     537     527    WED  7P 28-JAN  -1.5    -9.2    1017      77      55    0.00     540     526    THU  1A 29-JAN  -3.8    -8.0    1020      74       4    0.00     541     525    THU  7A 29-JAN  -5.9    -7.1    1023      83       8    0.00     545     527    
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I'm honestly not trying to be a wet blanket, but record storms are record storms for a reason - they are rare.

 

As Ray just said, you kind of leave the record stuff for when you see the whites of its eyes.

 

The glaring mistake that I saw right off the bat is that obviously, they didn't know where the banding would set up....so they blanketed. Fine.

But you blanket with a the tamer range, not 24-36" :lol:

Say 18"+, and perhaps outline "hot spots" where the possibility for 2' or more is highest.

That is how I played it.

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I'm honestly not trying to be a wet blanket, but record storms are record storms for a reason - they are rare.

 

As Ray just said, you kind of leave the record stuff for when you see the whites of its eyes.

 

 

 

Yeah someone will get 30" in this probably...but I wouldn't be forecasting that anywhere. I would feel much better just broadbrushing 18-24 with perhaps a few stratigic spots for 24"+ like Harvey did...though even that is not easy. Prob south shore where they will get enhancement for a time off the ocean and snow is last to shut off Tues night or early Wed morning...maybe north shore too.

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Here's NAM Output for Hyannis down on the Cape. All precipiation falling as snow. Total QPF 2.75.

                 SFC     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000                  TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500                  (C)     (C)    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK SUN  7P 25-JAN   1.6   -10.3    1011      51       1             537     529    MON  1A 26-JAN  -2.2    -9.4    1017      66      19    0.00     539     526    MON  7A 26-JAN  -2.6    -8.8    1019      76      65    0.00     541     526    MON  1P 26-JAN  -0.3    -5.8    1018      83      87    0.00     543     529    MON  7P 26-JAN   0.9    -5.8    1014      91      93    0.09     544     533    TUE  1A 27-JAN   0.8    -4.6    1006      98      97    0.44     542     538    TUE  7A 27-JAN   0.1    -5.6     994      97      99    0.83     534     539    TUE  1P 27-JAN   0.9    -5.9     989      94      82    0.70     528     537    TUE  7P 27-JAN   0.0    -8.7     991      93      63    0.39     526     533    WED  1A 28-JAN  -3.4    -8.9     999      91      99    0.20     526     527    WED  7A 28-JAN  -6.4   -12.0    1007      88      91    0.09     531     525    WED  1P 28-JAN  -3.9    -9.9    1012      86      86    0.01     537     527    WED  7P 28-JAN  -1.5    -9.2    1017      77      55    0.00     540     526    THU  1A 29-JAN  -3.8    -8.0    1020      74       4    0.00     541     525    THU  7A 29-JAN  -5.9    -7.1    1023      83       8    0.00     545     527    

 

I'm puzzled by the lower totals for the Cape - at this stage.  There's no indication in any model other than the old Euro that there will be anything must mostly snow for about 50/70% of the Cape.  Indeed it looks like a 15-25" type deal even here.

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Should start a thread for people looking to escape the subsidence zone and find deformation land.

Thats the problem with stalled storms you rot in either. Fronto wallop then stall you get crushed or its wind blown shattered dendrites for hours, been there done that probably 5-8 times in my life, but also been on the other end 5-8 times.

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I'll whine about it all day long until im covered again. Going through a tough time in my life with dad not doing well, I foking need this. 

I hear, man.

As Scott intimated earlier, I lost mine suddenly in March, while my life was already in shambles.

 

I still struggle every day, mentally, but gotta take it day to day.

This $hit helps

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I'm honestly not trying to be a wet blanket, but record storms are record storms for a reason - they are rare.

 

As Ray just said, you kind of leave the record stuff for when you see the whites of its eyes.

 

Still feeling the 14-18" up here? I'm leaning 10-14" right now. These E/ESE ticks with the mid level centers have me thinking the best goodies stay to my SE. I'd like to be at my old place in Auburn for this.

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Yeah someone will get 30" in this probably...but I wouldn't be forecasting that anywhere. I would feel much better just broadbrushing 18-24 with perhaps a few stratigic spots for 24"+ like Harvey did...though even that is not easy. Prob south shore where they will get enhancement for a time off the ocean and snow is last to shut off Tues night or early Wed morning...maybe north shore too.

Exactly.

That is how i played it.

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