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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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BxEngine

BxEngine

Posted
Posted

Rockland county expectations? I just need to know since I moved there, work in the city, and everyone is talking about NYC and LI... Advise please? :)

Gonna be a tough call here, we're near the border of the heavy stuff on all the models. Granted the heavy stuff on the NAM is 2', and on the gfs its 8", lol. Until we know which models are going to be correct, we're in a really difficult spot.

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RutgersWx92

RutgersWx92

Posted
Posted

Not as bad as I thought it would be.

Just FYI: WxBell snow maps have NYC at about 8 inches, with the 12+ not until you get to eastern LI.  I think the GFS is likely underdone though, and would probably still forecast 18-24" for the immediate NYC area, but with a sharp cutoff west of there.  The Euro has been quite consistent with those amounts from NYC on east (even though it cut back totals a bit in NJ), and I don't think it's going to change much this close to the event.

 

By the way, hope everyone enjoys the storm for me!  While this is going on I'll be in Norman where we're expecting a high of 72 tomorrow.  Ugh.

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Nygmen

Nygmen

Posted
Posted

The RAP's forecast at the end of it's run would suggest the GFS and RGEM are closer to reality than the NAM or Euro, the RAP has a known west bias beyond 12 hours and it's barely getting heavy snow to NYC, the Euro may be going down on this event.

not what anyone wants to here but i wouldnt be suprised...in that case i think the nam would have to be discontinued lol

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donsutherland1

donsutherland1

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While it remains plausible that the GFS might be onto something, that may not be the most likely explanation for the model's solution. That the 12z NAM again shifted into the ECMWF's camp suggests a degree of caution  should be in order before one accepts the 12z GFS.

 

In less than two weeks, the new GFS has missed two important events in the near-term, including the 1/18 storm that brought NYC 2.10" rain. Its performance so close to an event remains somewhat uncertain. If this were the earlier version of the GFS, I'd be a lot more concerned, as that version of the model consistently did quite well in the 24-36 hour period.

 

In the end, this will be an interesting model battle. Furthermore, I think the NWS's 18"-24" forecast remains a very solid one.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Just FYI: WxBell snow maps have NYC at about 8 inches, with the 12+ not until you get to eastern LI. I think the GFS is likely underdone though, and would probably still forecast 18-24" for the immediate NYC area, but with a sharp cutoff west of there. The Euro has been quite consistent with those amounts from NYC on east (even though it cut back totals a bit in NJ), and I don't think it's going to change much this close to the event.

By the way, hope everyone enjoys the storm for me! While this is going on I'll be in Norman where we're expecting a high of 72 tomorrow. Ugh.

We should start a suffering thread for all the displaced New Yorkers who'll be watching on the sidelines.
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NYStorm

NYStorm

Posted
Posted

I'm ranking the NAM above the GFS. We simply haven't had enough activity yet with the new upgrades to put much confidence in what it shows. Especially since it remains weak and East of the concensus.

But doesn't the NAM always overdo QPF? Sometimes quite significantly?

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WintersGrasp

WintersGrasp

Posted
Posted

The RAP's forecast at the end of it's run would suggest the GFS and RGEM are closer to reality than the NAM or Euro, the RAP has a known west bias beyond 12 hours and it's barely getting heavy snow to NYC, the Euro may be going down on this event.

I've always seen the RGEM as accurate which definitely has me worried.....and the NAM is obviously being loved at the moment because it shows a ton of snow and goes along with the last euro run.....have you noticed anything on the RGEM a that seemed "off"? It definitely is usually more accurate than the NAM, especially at this range

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