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Bust of the Century January 26-27 2015 model suites and discussions

Morris

By Morris,
in New York City Metro

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Neblizzard

Neblizzard

Posted
Posted

If the Euro was 1st with this , the SREFs were 2 . I agree with the sticky .( Warning adjust NW ) . There is a day 8 storm , next week on the maps .

Looks like 66 . There is a Strong southern system that may run from OBX to CC . With the BL in the single digits .

So if that happens , we will back here throwing knives again , you can count on it .

If that comes out and up .

You're an excellent poster on here, some of the stuff you write just makes me laugh. "Throwing knives again" lol. Massive changes overnight make me think the 12z suite will be a cave to the euro. It's not going to be wrong 12-24 hours before this event.

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ILoveWinter

ILoveWinter

Posted
Posted

Just a quick question from the UK. 

 

1) Do we have any live stream TV forecast stations covering the event constantly? TWC for example..but local.

I am sure most of the news stations will but not till tonight.  Also, there are multiple webcams (espec Times Square) all over the city for live shots.

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RU848789

RU848789

Posted
Posted

I high five myself here all the time , No shame in that   ha . Nice work .

 

Thanks.  I know my fundamental sciences (PhD in chem eng'g) very well, which is why I tend to post about things like snow crystal microphysics, mass/heat transfer/dynamic cooling, phase changes and the like.  But my meteorology knowledge is somewhat limited, as I've never had any courses/training in synoptics or model reading - however, I do a ton of risk analysis/risk mgmt work and what the NWS did with the more conservative 4 am packages was textbook risk management.  They were very confident in the Euro, but had other data they couldn't completely discount, so they compromised a bit, but went nowhere near as low as they could have if they had - gasp! - discounted the Euro.  Kudos to them, as the 6Z suite is vindicating their logic.  

 

By the way, kudos to you and Don for the excellent discussion on this page - I learn a lot from both of you and quite a few other on the forum.  Makes it worth wading through all the panic, lol.  

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

It's remarkable that we can do it on the Euro going from a fish to a KU blizzard in just 24 hrs time. 

I guess the motto here in the 2000's is to expect the unexpected weather event extremes.

The GFS had this last Thursday . I posted EWALL maps for 2 days . And I was so against buying it because the Euro did not see it .

That's what I mean about the GFS it sees it , then loses it , then has to get there kicking and screaming .

But it had it 1st .

 

However once the Euro got it , it  did not move for 2 days .  The difference was the other models were not handling the N Atlantic correctly as well as the speed of the backside SW . Once the euro saw the capture and retrogression it held it .  That solution is done . I cant wait to see the eye on the satellite shot in the AM .

Then I am on to day 8 :whistle:

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Minerva

Minerva

Posted
Posted

Thanks.  I know my fundamental sciences (PhD in chem eng'g) very well, which is why I tend to post about things like snow crystal microphysics, mass/heat transfer/dynamic cooling, phase changes and the like.  But my meteorology knowledge is somewhat limited, as I've never had any courses/training in synoptics or model reading - however, I do a ton of risk analysis/risk mgmt work and what the NWS did with the more conservative 4 am packages was textbook risk management.  They were very confident in the Euro, but had other data they couldn't completely discount, so they compromised a bit, but went nowhere near as low as they could have if they had - gasp! - discounted the Euro.  Kudos to them, as the 6Z suite is vindicating their logic.  

 

By the way, kudos to you and Don for the excellent discussion on this page - I learn a lot from both of you and quite a few other on the forum.  Makes it worth wading through all the panic, lol.  

 

We lurkers especially appreciate learned people of all stripes. Thank you for your valuable input!

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bluewave

bluewave

Posted
Posted

The GFS had this last Thursday . I posted EWALL maps for 2 days . And I was so against buying it because the Euro did not see it .

That's what I mean about the GFS it sees it , then loses it , then has to get there kicking and screaming .

But it had it 1st .

 

However once the Euro got it , it  did not move for 2 days .  The difference was the other models were not handling the N Atlantic correctly as well as the speed of the backside SW . Once the euro saw the capture and retrogression it held it .  That solution is done . I cant wait to see the eye on the satellite shot in the AM .

Then I am on to day 8 :whistle:

 

It's also interesting how the Saturday storm corrected north on such short notice around days 5-6 but in a less

dramatic manner. Some lucky spots are going to JP big time tonight and tomorrow where the band stalls in

place as the low sits on the benchmark.

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hooralph

hooralph

Posted
Posted

Thanks.  I know my fundamental sciences (PhD in chem eng'g) very well, which is why I tend to post about things like snow crystal microphysics, mass/heat transfer/dynamic cooling, phase changes and the like.  But my meteorology knowledge is somewhat limited, as I've never had any courses/training in synoptics or model reading - however, I do a ton of risk analysis/risk mgmt work and what the NWS did with the more conservative 4 am packages was textbook risk management.  They were very confident in the Euro, but had other data they couldn't completely discount, so they compromised a bit, but went nowhere near as low as they could have if they had - gasp! - discounted the Euro.  Kudos to them, as the 6Z suite is vindicating their logic.  

 

By the way, kudos to you and Don for the excellent discussion on this page - I learn a lot from both of you and quite a few other on the forum.  Makes it worth wading through all the panic, lol.  

It is a good forecast - yours and theirs. Question is - why so high to begin with? There was model support for 24-36", but there was only room to go down from there. I posted that to FB, so I'll pat myself on the back  :pimp:

 

18-24"+ is enough to: convey, historic, disruptive storm. If there are 30"+ stripes, the impact to transportation and life is not that much greater.

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stlirish

stlirish

Posted
Posted

It is a good forecast - yours and theirs. Question is - why so high to begin with? There was model support for 24-36", but there was only room to go down from there. I posted that to FB, so I'll pat myself on the back :pimp:

18-24"+ is enough to: convey, historic, disruptive storm. If there are 30"+ stripes, the impact to transportation and life is not that much greater.

The actual forecast was for 24-30", as explained by the NWS met who hopped on here for a few posts. The map graphic required them to go to 24-36". I agree with the hedge down but the original forecast may very well work out fine.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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sferic

sferic

Posted
Posted

The actual forecast was for 24-30", as explained by the NWS met who hopped on here for a few posts. The map graphic required them to go to 24-36". I agree with the hedge down but the original forecast may very well work out fine.

Sent from my iPhone

What did he mean the map graphic required them to go from 24-36? As opposed to what?

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RU4Real

RU4Real

Posted
Posted

Hey guys lookout for the elderly neighnbors, first responders are helpless in these situations stay well enjoy the snowgasm.see ya

 

It's off-topic and I apologize, but this isn't true. Here in Monmouth County the FDs and EMS agencies pin crews to the house for all weather emergencies ("snow stand-by") and while response times can be reduced due to road conditions we absolutely will get out to the calls.

 

But yeah - check on the neighbors. That's always a good thing to do.

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stlirish

stlirish

Posted
Posted

What did he mean the map graphic required them to go from 24-36? As opposed to what?

He had up to 30" in his forecast and that was the graphic that covered that range. They were also coordinating graphics with the other offices. Regardless, he said HIS forecast was 24-30" using 12/1 ratios and following EURO/NAM blend for guidance. Completely disregarded GFS.

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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PB GFI

PB GFI

Posted
Posted

You're an excellent poster on here, some of the stuff you write just makes me laugh. "Throwing knives again" lol. Massive changes overnight make me think the 12z suite will be a cave to the euro. It's not going to be wrong 12-24 hours before this event.

Thank you ,

 

Convection and it`s lift may help to increase QPF and raito`s that the meso s will pick up later

 

 

NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-

735 AM EST MON JAN 26 2015

...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT

EST TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TODAY...LIGHT SNOW. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES.

HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S. NORTHEAST WINDS 15 TO 20 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW

NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.TONIGHT...SNOW IN THE EVENING...THEN SNOW WITH A CHANCE OF

THUNDERSTORMS AFTER MIDNIGHT. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT

TIMES AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT

TIMES. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 8 TO 12 INCHES. WINDY WITH

LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO

35 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.

.TUESDAY...SNOW WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING...THEN

SNOW IN THE AFTERNOON. BLOWING SNOW. SNOW MAY BE HEAVY AT TIMES IN

THE MORNING WITH VISIBILITY ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES. BLUSTERY AND COLD.

NEAR STEADY TEMPERATURE IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS AROUND 20 MPH

WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT.

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jm1220

jm1220

Posted
Posted

Even 6 hours ago I was like...

 

 

 

 

These things are damn hard to figure...

I was pretty confident at 0z that the light to mod snow over NYC depiction and a closing off 500mb low were completely unrealistic and the models were favoring the heavy convection too much. Looks like that was the right call. There should be tons of snow into NYC and maybe into NJ as well with the upper level depiction as it is. 18-24" is probably the right call for the NYC area with 24"+ east of the Sagtikos. And if the Euro/RGEM are right, 24"+ into NYC. The Euro totally nails NYC with that deformation banding, and the NW edge of the heavy QPF is known to contain the best banding. 

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IsentropicLift

IsentropicLift

Posted
Posted

You really don't want to be just to the NW of wherever that mega band sets up. Strong dynamic bands like this one is projected to be have strong subsidence on either side. Strong lift focused on one location tends to cause sinking air around it. 90% of the people that live in this sub-forum should be fine but don't be surprised if this is a general 12-18" in most places with narrow bands of 30"+ where the best banding setup. I think Boxing Day is probably a very good analog in terms of where the sharp cut off will be.

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MANDA

MANDA

Posted
Posted

You really don't want to be just to the NW of wherever that mega band sets up. Strong dynamic bands like this one is projected to be have strong subsidence on either side. Strong lift focused on one location tends to cause sinking air around it. 90% of the people that live in this sub-forum should be fine but don't be surprised if this is a general 12-18" in most places with narrow bands of 30"+ where the best banding setup. I think Boxing Day is probably a very good analog in terms of where the sharp cut off will be.

No you really don't want to be west or northwest of where best banding sets up.  Boxing day is a good example for sure.  This will likely not be as extreme as that was, at least closer into NYC metro.  Will likely be over western 1/3 of NJ or just over the border before amounts start to quickly fall off.   I had 14" here in southern Morris County and less than 10 miles away amounts were 25-30" over ALL of Union County.  Was painful to watch the band(s) on radar just sit there and never make it over the county line into Morris.  The sinking kept totals to the west and southwest of me in the single digits.

post-2361-0-84830700-1422280513_thumb.gi

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