djr5001 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Wow..GGEM is no fun. Have a feeling this either makes a good run at PA or is a MA special. GGEM and UKMET both similar which I think is actually a good thing for us right now. I think they are a little too far north with the 12z run which is more than ok to not have us in a bullseye at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 You can add the king to the winners bracket...I 80 south gets in on the goods. Warning criteria east to west south of 80. Really nice 12z suite. Just hope they stay locked. Been a while n I'm sure many mets haven't had enough fingernails grow back for this threat. Nut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I have a feeling it is going to get a little icy around here over the next few hours... precip moving in earlier with warmer air aloft still in place is not what the models/forecasts had. 12z Euro is much much better for us than 0z run Was just going to ask when the Euro was coming back from lunch. Dew points can't be real high today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 It'll come north. These bowling ball type events always do, not worried at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Latest QPF forecast from WPC. Link: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif IMO, this looks like a solid advisory event shaping up for all of PA, with the exception of the Mason-Dixon couties. There is a pseudo 50/50 low and transient -NAO. The signals are there for the next 7 - 14 days being snowy for a lot of people in this sub-forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 and the 12 Euro run hits a round 2 Wednesday night into Thursday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 I have a feeling it is going to get a little icy around here over the next few hours... precip moving in earlier with warmer air aloft still in place is not what the models/forecasts had. 12z Euro is much much better for us than 0z run Great. Hopefully its after rush hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 and the 12 Euro run hits a round 2 Wednesday night into Thursday... is it still showing brutal cold for that time frame? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 12z ECM is 6-9" 80N, 9-12" 80S. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Latest QPF forecast from WPC. Link: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif IMO, this looks like a solid advisory event shaping up for all of PA, with the exception of the Mason-Dixon couties. There is a pseudo 50/50 low and transient -NAO. The signals are there for the next 7 - 14 days being snowy for a lot of people in this sub-forum. and by except you mean because the southern tier reaching WSW criteria.... I hope anyway. your link didnt open. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 is it still showing brutal cold for that time frame? Not quite GFS level of brutal cold (12z GFS text output has -12F as low for Tuesday morning for MDT) but yes cold... The Eurowx.com snow map must be calculating high ratios because it has most of southern PA in the 9-12" range for Sunday/Monday alone while qpf is about 2/3rds of that... ~.4" MDT / ~.6" LNS for Wednesday/Thursday Friday and Saturday morning also almost Tuesday level of cold on this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Not quite GFS level of brutal cold (12z GFS text output has -12F as low for Tuesday morning for MDT) but yes cold... The Eurowx.com snow map must be calculating high ratios because it has most of southern PA in the 9-12" range for Sunday/Monday alone while qpf is about 2/3rds of that... ~.4" MDT / ~.6" LNS for Wednesday/Thursday Friday morning also almost Tuesday level of cold on this run Seems right to be thinking high ratios, the Euro is quite cold in PA with -8C at best in PA at 850 and generally colder than that. Def a great powder run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Not quite GFS level of brutal cold (12z GFS text output has -12F as low for Tuesday morning for MDT) but yes cold... The Eurowx.com snow map must be calculating high ratios because it has most of southern PA in the 9-12" range for Sunday/Monday alone while qpf is about 2/3rds of that... ~.4" MDT / ~.6" LNS for Wednesday/Thursday Friday and Saturday morning also almost Tuesday level of cold on this run got it thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 We're moving now into a -NAO, correct? Mag's always said this area can cash in on that transfer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Virga showing its ugly head right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Winter Weather Advisory Issue Time Expires At Expires In Thu, Jan 29, 12:54pm EST Fri, Jan 30, 1:00am EST 11 hr, 5 min WWUS41 KCTP 291752 WSWCTP URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1252 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 .A FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NORTH OF PENNSYLVANIA LATE TODAY BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW...THAT COULD BE MIXED WITH SOME LIGHT SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AT TIMES ACROSS SOUTHERN PENNSYLVANIA. PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063>066-300600- /O.EXB.KCTP.WW.Y.0009.150129T1900Z-150130T0600Z/ BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY- DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION... LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG... CHAMBERSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...LEBANON... CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER 1252 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A WINTRY MIX OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW...WITH SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...A COATING OVER EASTERN AREAS SUCH AS HARRISBURG AND YORK TO AS MUCH AS 3 INCHES OVER WESTERN LOCATIONS SUCH AS BEDFORD AND ALTOONA. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS. * TIMING...PRECIPITATION WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...THEN TAPER OFF BY AROUND MIDNIGHT. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO DETERIORATING ROAD CONDITIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 29, 2015 Author Share Posted January 29, 2015 MAG, any thoughts as to how this storm might progress? Any hope for further north progress or are we nearing a limit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 how funny would it be if all models locked in on something for Sunday/Monday after "the great bust" earlier this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 and by except you mean because the southern tier reaching WSW criteria.... I hope anyway. your link didnt open. Nut Try this one: http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/95ep48iwbg_fill.gif Image: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Weather world also mentioned a (possible) noteworthy storm around the end of next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 12z ECM is 6-9" 80N, 9-12" 80S. Yep its basically a statewide 6"+ for all except the far NE corner of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 and because climatology is always fun and worth taking a look at to keep in mind (especially not to forecast record numbers several days in advance)... -- Harrisburg has not had a subzero reading in February since Feb 6, 1996 -- 20 occurances in the 126 year record -- Most for the month was 4 times way back in 1899 (if measurements then are even nearly as accurate as now which had a reading of -13F for monthly low record) and 3 in 1934 which is the coldest Feb on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
meteo Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Light snow has commenced here in Altoona...27.5 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Light snow has commenced here in Altoona...27.5 degrees. same here and the temp dropped 2 degrees from 30 to 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 MAG, any thoughts as to how this storm might progress? Any hope for further north progress or are we nearing a limit? Well the models the last couple days have presented us with the whole range of possibilities from a storm cutting west or over PA to a perfectly aimed PA snowstorm to a more suppressed storm, which will continue to be refined the next day or two. I'm def confident on saying that the amped up west of PA solution is probably off the table at this point.. which was something I wasn't seeing happening to begin with given the progressive tendencies of this winter. Not to mention I think the cold air around was probably being understated as well. So currently, I think the storm will go under PA... with the question being how far under PA and if 80N is fringed or gets solidly in it. I will say I really like the look of this potential event right now as a viable moderate snowfall threat at least. Euro and GFS are fairly similar today track wise, with the Euro being a slight bit more amplified (which gives northern PA better snowfall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Coming down pretty heavy right now...Just in time for the kids to get out of school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Snowing pretty hard attm, nice big fluffies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 MAG doesn't UNV to IPT typically do well with these bowling ball storms or am I mistaken? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Coming down pretty heavy right now...Just in time for the kids to get out of school. Bellwood let out early today cuz of the impending weather, which I was surprised about. For some reason they thought we were getting freezing rain/ice, which was never really in the forecast here locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 29, 2015 Share Posted January 29, 2015 Coming down nicely here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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