heavy_wx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 with the low tracking so close to the M/D line, the southern tier has mixing potential due to southerly flow prior to the passage of the low. I'd think once by we'd flip back, but qpf totals would be tainted by sleet/ZR. Reading in some other forums, that the pros think a southern tick is still possible. Having a decent arctic airmass close by would lend my weenie eyes to think this has some merit. thats not a wishcast, that's just physics. I wish we had a stable..not transient 50/50 in place as i'd think it would help to keep this bad boy from lifting. Despite the fine detals WMSPTWX....breath....relax. You have the best seat in the house for this one and in my view, a decent amount of wiggle room to see 6+ easy. Even you Voyager. You guys wanna worry.....come to my house... anxiously awaiting the 12z's....I think. Nut It could also end up farther north. The 00z GEFS has a few more amplified members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 For IPT let's hope it holds WmsptWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Heavy WX kind of looks like there is a negative tilt which would tend to push it more to the northeast? Correct? or not that simple? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 with the low tracking so close to the M/D line, the southern tier has mixing potential due to southerly flow prior to the passage of the low. I'd think once by we'd flip back, but qpf totals would be tainted by sleet/ZR. Reading in some other forums, that the pros think a southern tick is still possible. Having a decent arctic airmass close by would lend my weenie eyes to think this has some merit. thats not a wishcast, that's just physics. I wish we had a stable..not transient 50/50 in place as i'd think it would help to keep this bad boy from lifting. Despite the fine detals WMSPTWX....breath....relax. You have the best seat in the house for this one and in my view, a decent amount of wiggle room to see 6+ easy. Even you Voyager. You guys wanna worry.....come to my house... anxiously awaiting the 12z's....I think. Nut Regardless, from the 0z/6z suite except for the GGEM all of PA gets a good thump of snow to start. Southern Tier may be at risk to change or mix over to frozen at some point but still a good initial thump of snow. 4" plus. This is just based on what the models are saying right now. MA forum very disappointed but still much time left, many model runs for adjustments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
heavy_wx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Heavy WX kind of looks like there is a negative tilt which would tend to push it more to the northeast? Correct? or not that simple? Maybe the 500 mb trough becomes slightly negatively tilted just past our longitude but it's mostly neutrally tilted, thanks to the southern and northern stream waves remaining a bit out of phase. If there was more phasing, especially west of PA, a negatively-tilted trough would allow for more amplification and a track farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Big 12z suite coming up here. Remember, this is the point last March when we had two storms collapse south. As for now...this from BGM...reads here and looks on the map like a Severe Thunderstorm Warming: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY808 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015NYZ045-046-056-057-062-PAZ039-040-043-044-047-048-072-301430-BROOME NY-CHENANGO NY-DELAWARE NY-LACKAWANNA PA-LUZERNE PA-OTSEGONY-PIKE PA-SULLIVAN NY-SUSQUEHANNA PA-WAYNE PA-WYOMING PA-808 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015... HEAVY SNOWFALL MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...* AT 800 AM EST...AN AREA OF HEAVY SNOW WAS ACROSS PARTS OFDELAWARE...WYOMING...LACKAWANNA...PIKE...EASTERNLUZERNE...CHENANGO...EASTERN BROOME...OTSEGO...SULLIVAN...SUSQUEHANNA AND WAYNE COUNTIES. SNOWFALL RATESIN THE BAND WILL BE OVER ONE INCH AN HOUR AT TIMES. THE VISIBILITYWILL DROP TO LESS THAN ONE-QUARTER OF A MILE. THE SNOW WILL BEGIN TOMOVE EAST OF THE REGION BY 10 AM.* LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THE SNOW BANDS INCLUDE DELHI... DEPOSIT...WALTON...LIBERTY...ONEONTA...MONTROSE...PITTSTON... WILKES-BARRE...TUNKHANNOCK...CARBONDALE...SCRANTON...WAVERLY AND HONESDALE.SNOWFALL INTENSITY AND VISIBILITIES IN THE SNOW CAN VARY GREATLY...ANDHAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON TRAVEL. ROADS WILL BECOME HAZARDOUS ANDSLIPPERY. SLOW DOWN AND ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH YOUR DESTINATION.LAT...LON 4221 7453 4218 7447 4215 7448 4202 7477 4192 7454 4172 7458 4109 7594 4192 7611 4274 7477 4259 7464 4251 7470 4243 7461 4237 7447 4234 7444 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Guys relax, we all got this one*. * Unless Mother Nature shifts this 200 miles north which is possible or makes it phase and hammer SNE again and give us nada. Or maybe it moves way south and north of the MD border is just wind. Or maybe China's weather balloons finally visit and we all have smogfree 70 degree sunny days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 it really got bad here in the last two hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Guys relax, we all got this one*. I'll relax @ 2;00 Saturday morning....right after the "queen" (dethroned...but still all powerful).....has spoken. Nut * Unless Mother Nature shifts this 200 miles north which is possible or makes it phase and hammer SNE again and give us nada. Or maybe it moves way south and north of the MD border is just wind. Or maybe China's weather balloons finally visit and we all have smogfree 70 degree sunny days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Down to flurries now, recorded 2.3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z NAM holds north trend, southern tier may have mixing issues especially PA/MD border, south of turnpike. Hope still for a good thump of snow before that happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z NAM holds north trend, southern tier may have mixing issues especially PA/MD border, south of turnpike. Hope still for a good thump of snow before that happens. LSV receives very little snow verbatim. 80 is sweating profusely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 LSV receives very little snow verbatim. 80 is sweating profusely. I don't think it is rain though. Look at the high to our north and the 0c line doesn' make it through our area. If anything it is a sleet/fr rain situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Let the south trend commence! NAM ugly for LSV. Thankfully still many more runs to go, but the north trend is disconcerting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 NAM is the NAM, no one puts much stock into it. I'm just hoping the models still show a good storm for PA tmrw night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Regardless, from the 0z/6z suite except for the GGEM all of PA gets a good thump of snow to start. Southern Tier may be at risk to change or mix over to frozen at some point but still a good initial thump of snow. 4" plus. This is just based on what the models are saying right now. MA forum very disappointed but still much time left, many model runs for adjustments. We have had several cases already this winter of lows being too amped in models vs reality and a trend south late so why not again. At least we are not sitting bullseye right now!! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We have had several cases already this winter of lows being too amped in models vs reality and a trend south late so why not again. At least we are not sitting bullseye right now!! lol Your right, if you look at that placement of the high on the NAM seems ideal to me. If this is verbatim happening as is modeled by the NAM I don't think it is rain. CAD would be a factor in the LSV. But it also might not be thump of snow on the front end either. Nasty ice storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We have had several cases already this winter of lows being too amped in models vs reality and a trend south late so why not again. At least we are not sitting bullseye right now!! lol wmsptwx is..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 LOL, quit your jinxing!! In all honesty I think maximum qpf ends up near MDT but we do alright with good ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Heavy WX thanks for the reply! 1.2" here for yesterdays clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
colonel717 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Posted to NWS State College FB page recently-https://www.facebook.com/NWSStateCollege/ph...4386669/?type=1 US National Weather Service State College PA For the last several days our forecast models have been vacillating about whether or not the storm for later in the weekend will be significant for us. They now seem to be latching on to some previously not detected energy topping the ridge over western North America and using it to phase with moisture and energy emerging from the southwestern US to bring a storm our way for Sunday into Monday. Be sure to stay tuned to our latest forecasts and statements. It's still too early to be specific but there is the potential for several inches of new snow before all is said and done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Heavy WX thanks for the reply! 1.2" here for yesterdays clipper. psu did you measure? I eyeballed it, it looks to be over 3 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pirates21 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Posted to NWS State College FB page recently- https://www.facebook.com/NWSStateCollege/ph...4386669/?type=1 US National Weather Service State College PA For the last several days our forecast models have been vacillating about whether or not the storm for later in the weekend will be significant for us. They now seem to be latching on to some previously not detected energy topping the ridge over western North America and using it to phase with moisture and energy emerging from the southwestern US to bring a storm our way for Sunday into Monday. Be sure to stay tuned to our latest forecasts and statements. It's still too early to be specific but there is the potential for several inches of new snow before all is said and done. You beat me to it. I was just gonna post that. Sounds good to me. As long as all that moisture drops on all of PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z GFS is very nice for pretty much all of PA. Low running from southern Illinois through Kentucky, West Virginia, and over DC. Strong arctic high across the top, 850mb -8C isotherm right through Central PA. Beautiful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS looks like a decent hit for most of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 psu did you measure? I eyeballed it, it looks to be over 3 inches. 2.3" in this part of the city... 12z GFS is very nice for pretty much all of PA. Low running from southern Illinois through Kentucky, West Virginia, and over DC. Strong arctic high across the top, 850mb -8C isotherm right through Central PA. Beautiful. Yes sir, now let's hope that PV doesn't get too obtrusive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS looks good, but am I wrong the warm layers are awfully close to the border? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Posted to NWS State College FB page recently- https://www.facebook.com/NWSStateCollege/ph...4386669/?type=1 US National Weather Service State College PA For the last several days our forecast models have been vacillating about whether or not the storm for later in the weekend will be significant for us. They now seem to be latching on to some previously not detected energy topping the ridge over western North America and using it to phase with moisture and energy emerging from the southwestern US to bring a storm our way for Sunday into Monday. Be sure to stay tuned to our latest forecasts and statements. It's still too early to be specific but there is the potential for several inches of new snow before all is said and done. But haven't we been watching this energy the past few days? Plus, with this energy only coming on shore over the past few hours isn't it likely 0z tonight will be the first and best sampling we have had yet? My early guess for Euro is that it falls right between the NAM and the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS looks good, but am I wrong the warm layers are awfully close to the border? MD on south have issues but GFS is a great track for most of us. Even if LSV has some mixing issues that comes after a very good thump on the front end. Seems to me GFS slowed down a bit as well. 1" QPF for most of C PA. Unfortunately many more model runs to go and the north option is still on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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