Wmsptwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Have my expectations set at 3 to 5 so a wobble either way and I'm good. Honestly, we are completely on track for our seasonal total so a wobble south wouldn't hurt my feelings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonesy56 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That would be one of the most latitudinally-oriented snow maps I've seen. LOL, I was thinking the same thing. I don't recall a model depiction for any storm that well aligned with PA's north & south borders. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Who rolled the bowling ball? WOW!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 LOL, I remember making a post on here awhile ago saying how bowling ball events are usually money for most of us....now we just need to avoid the inevitable 36 hour disaster lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 put the women and children to bed, its about to get serious! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 just click on pic and copy address. click on the pic icon in the editor and paste link...done. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Who rolled the bowling ball? WOW!!! I did. When I hit. I hit hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 looks fairly similar to 0z to me except a little wetter... low is slightly stronger by 12z monday morning so of course it pushes 0C 850mb line slightly further north. Not nearly as strong with system as UKMET that tracks through PA... almost a 10 mb difference between UKMET and Euro/GFS Yep you were right. Great run now only a zillion more. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yep you were right. Great run now only a zillion more. :-) Isn't that the truth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z runs of the GFS/CAN/EURO are about as good as your are going to get for Mson-Dixon to I-80. Would be warning criteria snow. If the 00z suite holds this, I could see CTP putting a blanket watch out, especially since PBZ already did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Not that I want to look beyond this one but middle of next week Euro develops low in gulf but it gets way suppressed not sure if that will change and end of the run development in the middle of the country. Very Active run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Horst going 6"-10" from the I-80 to the turnpike, 3"-6" north and south of those locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Horst going 6"-10" from the I-80 to the turnpike, 3"-6" north and south of those locations. thanks, i always appreciate you posting his thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 This is Eric's map for the area. It's also located on his Twitter account. This is not his final call. He'll have an update later on in the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Our vortmax is onshore. The 18z and especially 00z model runs should initialize with the feature in western BC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I don't care if I-80 gets all the snow, I just don't want to mix or changeover. Give me 2" of snow, just keep all precip frozen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The southern cutoff is scarier than the movie Candyman. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Our vortmax is onshore. The 18z and especially 00z model runs should initialize with the feature in western BC. you say that like a proud father. hopefully this child won't disappoint you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z NAM looking good thus far nice high placement to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Holy snowsquall Batman! It's like a whiteout here, and the winds are really howling at the moment. Temp down of 5 degrees in the past half hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 New event. Winter Storm Watch from 2/1/2015 12:00 PM to 2/2/2015 12:00 PM EST for York County. More information. New event. Winter Storm Watch from 2/1/2015 12:00 PM to 2/2/2015 12:00 PM EST for Lancaster County. More information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Well State College pull the triggered WSW for the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063>066-310845-/O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0002.150201T1700Z-150202T1700Z/BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY-DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG...CHAMBERSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...LEBANON...CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER342 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHMONDAY MORNING...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTERSTORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHMONDAY MORNING.* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE.* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANTSNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. STAYTUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHERINFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSOBE FOUND AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 keep in mind that the 18z runs do not have any new sounding data... always good to check initialization with what actually occured at 1pm... we will not see best first sampling of system until 0z runs tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z NAM is north...changes everyone south of I-80 over to plain rain / ice by hour 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 PAZ025>028-034>036-056-057-059-063>066-310845- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0002.150201T1700Z-150202T1700Z/ BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-JUNIATA-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-PERRY- DAUPHIN-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALTOONA...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION... LEWISTOWN...MIFFLINTOWN...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG... CHAMBERSBURG...NEWPORT...HARRISBURG...HERSHEY...LEBANON... CARLISLE...GETTYSBURG...YORK...LANCASTER 342 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE. * ICE ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR UP TO ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN ALSO BE FOUND AT...WEATHER.GOV/STATECOLLEGE. And for the Northern counties as well... just hidden by the wind chill advisory in place tonight: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 342 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049-051>053-058- 310845- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0002.150201T1700Z-150202T1700Z/ /O.CON.KCTP.WC.Y.0003.150131T0000Z-150131T1600Z/ WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD- NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-SULLIVAN- SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-MONTOUR-NORTHUMBERLAND- COLUMBIA-SCHUYLKILL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...COUDERSPORT... ST. MARYS...RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...RENOVO...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD... PHILIPSBURG...STATE COLLEGE...MANSFIELD...WELLSBORO...LAPORTE... LOCK HAVEN...WILLIAMSPORT...LEWISBURG...DANVILLE...SUNBURY... SHAMOKIN...BLOOMSBURG...BERWICK...POTTSVILLE 342 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST SATURDAY... ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. * WIND CHILLS...10 TO 20 BELOW ZERO TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...FROSTBITE TO EXPOSED SKIN IN 30 MINUTES. * SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR 6 INCHES OR MORE SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU WILL BE OUTDOORS...DRESS IN LAYERS AND WEAR A HAT AND GLOVES. YOUNG CHILDREN...THE ELDERLY AND THE HOMELESS ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO THE COLD. APPROPRIATE ACTION SHOULD BE TAKEN TO ENSURE PETS HAVE ADEQUATE PROTECTION FROM THE COLD TEMPERATURES. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Storm Total Snowfall Link to: Latest Winter Weather Message Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Seems like a very reasonable first call to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z NAM is north...changes everyone south of I-80 over to plain rain / ice by hour 63. 18znam.JPG Still get some front end thump. But definitely like 12z. Hope other models stay consistent but highly doubt it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cfbaggett Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Seems like a very reasonable first call to me. Definitely. Like you said, we need to wait for 0Z so we can get full sampling of that vortmax... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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