MillvilleWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If CTP's map is correct, I want spring. If the LSV can't get 5" on this setup, I'm calling it quits haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Don't worry, the lack of consistency of these models PSU, Rick and I could be smoking cirrus by 12z tomorrow. Way too early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Just for ****s and giggles I worked up this map based off the 18z NAM in Photoshop. I forgot to include the scale though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Wish the NAM would have nudged south for some comfort...but then again, I thought about southern nudges last March and then the whole thing collapsed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Don't worry, the lack of consistency of these models PSU, Rick and I could be smoking cirrus by 12z tomorrow. Way too early. If we whiff on this one I think we'd all better start smoking something... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Agree CPT's map seems reasonable. And they come out with it before the OZ runs too. Seems to be right now: GFS, EURO,CMC vs UKMET, NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 let it snow.....I have been sick the last few days and haven't had much energy to do much. Hopefully I feel well enough to enjoy this over the next couple of days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm liking the 6-8" call for State College by CTP. In my limited experience, it seems pretty rare to get 10-12"+ up here compared to places like Philly/NYC which, while getting less snow per season on average, cash out on the coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm liking the 6-8" call for State College by CTP. In my limited experience, it seems pretty rare to get 10-12"+ up here compared to places like Philly/NYC which, while getting less snow per season on average, cash out on the coastals. You have to be careful with these types of storms though, then tend to be what our area does very well with. I would not be the least bit surprised to see double digit totals somewhere in CPA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm liking the 6-8" call for State College by CTP. In my limited experience, it seems pretty rare to get 10-12"+ up here compared to places like Philly/NYC which, while getting less snow per season on average, cash out on the coastals. I was recently looking back through State College snowfall records for 12" storms and while the huge storms have been lacking recently, I did take notice of the pretty large number of 8-11" storms. I think most of PA between the turnpike and 80 is looking really good for 6+, with banding features most likely to determine who gets 6.5" and who gets 10.5". It has been awhile since we've had a good one like this is modeled run across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I think most of PA between the turnpike and 80 is looking really good for 6+, with banding features most likely to determine who gets 6.5" and who gets 10.5". It has been awhile since we've had a good one like this is modeled run across. Where would the most likely place be for banding? Closer to the coast or back into the mountains? I know no one can predict where they might set up, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS is about to give the NAM some credibility... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z GFS has edged northward. I'm very curious to see the 00z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The northward trend better stop or we'll all be raining come Monday morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS is about to give the NAM some credibility... Still a very good portion of snow first half of the storm. It did come north a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 We finally have a storm with a large QPF shield and now we have to worry about mixing. Great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z GFS for what it's worth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z GFS for what it's worth... 18z GFS.jpg Thanks Voyager! I like those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WarrenCtyWx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'm not sure why, but the snowfall distribution of this storm somewhat reminds me of the February 5th event last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Where would the most likely place be for banding? Closer to the coast or back into the mountains? I know no one can predict where they might set up, but... I would think as the low moves south of us there will be one or more W-E oriented bands, and as the storm hits the coast, a NE-SW oriented band or two. Won't be able to nail down locations until they actually happen, most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I would think as the low moves south of us there will be one or more W-E oriented bands, and as the storm hits the coast, a NE-SW oriented band or two. Won't be able to nail down locations until they actually happen, most likely. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Thanks Voyager! I like those. Your welcome. They're not "exact" and I have to work each one individually, but it gives a "close" idea of what's depicted where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 18z GFS for what it's worth... 18z GFS.jpg Looks great to me, im not sure why anyone north of 80 should be concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That run is scary for MDT. This is a bad trend honestly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That run is scary for MDT. This is a bad trend honestly. Womp womp... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itunis Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 That run is scary for MDT. This is a bad trend honestly. Even up here I'm slightly uncomfortable about the north trend. I'd take the 12z Euro/gfs and run if I could. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Weather World has all state at 4-8" with locally heavier amounts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 Looks great to me, im not sure why anyone north of 80 should be concerned. The trend is north, north, north. We're already starting to see signs of sweat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 The trend is north, north, north. We're already starting to see signs of sweat. We're not 100 hours out anymore. Minor changes here on out, Wilkes Barre is definitely safe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 30, 2015 Author Share Posted January 30, 2015 We're not 100 hours out anymore. Minor changes here on out, Wilkes Barre is definitely safe. Take it from someone's who lived here for most of his ~23 years of life, we're far from safe...also read what red taggers are posting elsewhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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