Hoar_Frost Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z GFS is very nice for pretty much all of PA. Low running from southern Illinois through Kentucky, West Virginia, and over DC. Strong arctic high across the top, 850mb -8C isotherm right through Central PA. Beautiful. Indeed. Measured 1.7" at my apartment this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 GFS looks like a decent hit for most of PA. 0.75-1" liquid across the state south of I-80. 2.3" in this part of the city... Yes sir, now let's hope that PV doesn't get too obtrusive. I really like where we stand right now. The I-80 corridor has solid wiggle room in both directions to still get a nice storm. GFS looks good, but am I wrong the warm layers are awfully close to the border? Definitely a close call south of the turnpike. Too early to nail that down at the moment. The setup is reminiscent of 1994 with the bowling ball low coming across into the pressing arctic high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z GFS is very nice for pretty much all of PA. Low running from southern Illinois through Kentucky, West Virginia, and over DC. Strong arctic high across the top, 850mb -8C isotherm right through Central PA. Beautiful. once again State College looking great even if a slight shift in either direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Would ratios be pretty good for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Would ratios be pretty good for us? with a cold high pressing from the north to the little bit a ridging of the SE coast....that should allow for good lift in CPA. thats the kinda squeeze play we want to get caught in. I'd think the Euro will show a tick south of this (gut feeling due to know bias of the Euro...thats it) I once read that you have to "smell the rain" to get the best snows.... we'll I'll be smelling it i think...just hope not seeing it. Even if the mid levels warm, I'd think pingers would be the likely result w/ some ZR mixing in before a transition back before it scoots off OCMD. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I can remember similar storms producing .5 or .6 qpf and delivers 8 or 9 inches of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z Canadian is north Good spot at the moment for the 48hr out meltdown setting up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 If the Euro jogs north 50 or so miles I'll be really worried. The 12z GFS being south a bit was a good sign IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizz Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 UKMET is an example of what could go wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yikes UKMET is a near cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 UKMET is an example of what could go wrong. the fact is has been nearly consistent is a little worrisome too... remains strongest with system that I have seen of any model so of course furthest north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 we've all seen this dog and pony show before..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Sauss is right lol, time to wait until 0z tmrw and see what it brings. It's going to go every which way until then. Verbatim would UKMET be a nasty mix to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z Canadian is north Good spot at the moment for the 48hr out meltdown setting up. Good for most of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Sauss is right lol, time to wait until 0z tmrw and see what it brings. It's going to go every which way until then. Verbatim would UKMET be a nasty mix to rain? Agreed. Models will be jumping north, and south throughout the day. State College and you have more wriggle room right now. But with a strong high to the north I can't see how this thing becomes a lake cutter or goes that far north. Unless the high weakens quite a bit. I like where we are right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 MA forum guys are terrified it turns into a miller B and jackpots NYC and Boston ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 IMO the southern tier is in the best spot, because typically these adjust south with the arctic air press. I really don't want to say something one way or the other until late tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 MA forum guys are terrified it turns into a miller B and jackpots NYC and Boston ... MA forum is in meltdown mode. Actually feel bad for them as this was there storm just yesterday. This hobby can be so brutal. Models give it, models take it away just like that. Models can give some back to them yet but trends aren't good. DT was all over facebook yesterday showing the model that was giving Richmond snow. Haven't seen him yet today. He is tiresome to read at times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 IMO the southern tier is in the best spot, because typically these adjust south with the arctic air press. I really don't want to say something one way or the other until late tomorrow. Honestly, Mag pointed it out we haven't had a "true" PA special for a long time. Does it finally happen again? That would be awesome. Everyone wins for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 12z Canadian is north Sweet. It would be awesome if that would play out as modeled (I'm off work that day so bring it...lol). Thing is, we're too far out to even remotely get excited about something like that actually happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 some want it north, some want is south. some will win, some will lose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 I'd love it to see a nice 5 plus for everyone, just like Voyager said though, this is about the time the rug usually gets pulled out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 PBZ just issued winter storm watches for western PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 PBZ just issued winter storm watches for western PA wow isn't it early yet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 PBZ just issued winter storm watches for western PA wow, really? Seems early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 Yea, I'd have waited until 12z tmrw at earliest. Things could change just as quickly at 0z as they did last few runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 wow isn't it early yet? a little but almost within 48 hours of start for there... wonder if state college will do same in a few hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 a little but almost within 48 hours of start for there... wonder if state college will do same in a few hours Bet they won't until after tonight's runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 They seem to also be much more of a sure hit than Altoona west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 30, 2015 Share Posted January 30, 2015 a little but almost within 48 hours of start for there... wonder if state college will do same in a few hours State College seems to wait longer, however for State College on north I think they could place WSW. Too many options on the table yet. Euro in a 1/2 hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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