burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 #fail again. This is another funky kind of run. What kind of look will we see at 00z?? Chris, Euro tends to do this a lot on storms with long lead time. It seems to always want to give us a another "threat" on it's heels. Who knows what actually happens. It'll be interesting to watch trends next week. I fly back on Friday if we get something hopefully it holds off until I land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 2nd storm is a little inland. Might be good enough for the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 2nd storm is a little inland. Might be good enough for the mountains. I'm willing to bet second storm doesn't happen that fast on the heels of the first one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Chris, Euro tends to do this a lot on storms with long lead time. It seems to always want to give us a another "threat" on it's heels. Who knows what actually happens. It'll be interesting to watch trends next week. I fly back on Friday if we get something hopefully it holds off until I land. this same time we saw a SVR look with the last run...LOL It doesn't bode well for consistency for sure. However, it does tell me we have at least a storm is possible in this range...Thats what we can take away from the models at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 this same time we saw a SVR look with the last run...LOL It doesn't bode well for consistency for sure. However, it does tell me we have at least a storm is possible in this range...Thats what we can take away from the models at least for now.maybe, our problem this year has been almost all storms at this time range has trended much weaker as we have gotten closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It could be...my guess, at this point, is that the euro is wrong, and it will trend weaker. or the models are pushing in the change too quickly! That could DEF be it...that is a bigger concern of mine right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It could be...my guess, at this point, is that the euro is wrong, and it will trend weaker. or the models are pushing in the change too quickly! That could DEF be it...that is a bigger concern of mine right now. If we pop a tall ridge out west, the changes may also speed up a little a little. In other words, to varying degrees, literally everything is still on the table, except sunny and 65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Temps should be the biggest concern now! When temps are modeled to be upper 30s -low 40s in the Carolinas, and A low crossing N FL, doesn't mean it has to trend colder, and just stating dont worry about temps at this range, makes no sense! We have to worry about temps if its 1 day away or one week away, always a concern! Perfect ex, is today, imby! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The warm midlevels are mostly a byproduct of the lakes low (this lakes low isn't the friendly kind associated with a pressing PV). Take that away and the se gets hit pretty flush. I wouldn't track temps as much as I would track pressure patterns around the lakes. I'm fairly certain the euro ens are going to show some nice hits in the SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It could be...my guess, at this point, is that the euro is wrong, and it will trend weaker. or the models are pushing in the change too quickly! That could DEF be it...that is a bigger concern of mine right now.That's a good point. I feel like every pattern change this year gets slightly delayed with each model run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I'm willing to bet second storm doesn't happen that fast on the heels of the first one. Agreed. Strange look, and I think the Euro's on its own with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Temps should be the biggest concern now! When temps are modeled to be upper 30s -low 40s in the Carolinas, and A low crossing N FL, doesn't mean it has to trend colder, and just stating dont worry about temps at this range, makes no sense! We have to worry about temps if its 1 day away or one week away, always a concern! Perfect ex, is today, imby! To be fair, Asheville was supposed to be in mid-40s today per NWS GSP but we are likely not making it out of mid-30s. If GSP overestimated our temperature badly inside 24 hours, then I'm sure we got plenty of time with 8-10 days to lower that temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The 12z EPS and GEFS are worlds apart. Huge spread on the EPS with the mean headed to the Ohio valley and the GEFS has one cutter everything else is a southern solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Are people drinking at the bar or something, 18z just gave us a blizzard (I know sfc temps are high). There were 4 or 5 ensemble members from 12z that were good like that (out of 12 on ewall). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Are people drinking at the bar or something, 18z just gave us a blizzard (I know sfc temps are high). There were 4 or 5 ensemble members from 12z that were good like that (out of 12 on ewall). I was driving home from work. Looked at it on my phone and almost had a wreck. lol dat 18z though. Man that is a monster on there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Are people drinking at the bar or something, 18z just gave us a blizzard (I know sfc temps are high). There were 4 or 5 ensemble members from 12z that were good like that (out of 12 on ewall). Well, we know Sean probably is. EPS graphs weren't too enthused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Here's what the Charlotte sounding looks like just FYI. Love Allan's quick soundings on the model site, but I wish they had the ground height adjusted per locale, as I think they always show it as 1000mb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Are people drinking at the bar or something, 18z just gave us a blizzard (I know sfc temps are high). There were 4 or 5 ensemble members from 12z that were good like that (out of 12 on ewall). I haven't gotten that far yet on the free sites. I was hoping. Matthew East (can I call him Matt? are we cool like that?) posted some nice pics on twitter in regard to the difference in the GFS and the EURO. Hinted it had a lot to do with the western ridge placement...too far east, cold and suppressed. EURO is not as east and shows the storm. I'm assuming 18Z has it just right. Edit: Is there a thread where I can get a refresher course on how to read a sounding? Is that a snow sounding? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Believe at your own risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Oh, God, I love me some of that 18z GFS. Holy crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Edit: Is there a thread where I can get a refresher course on how to read a sounding? Is that a snow sounding? Thanks. Red line is temp, green line is dewpoint. Where they are close together, moisture is high. The temp scale is on the bottom, and the temp lines are the black lines that slant up and to the right (from 'southwest' to northeast' on the chart). So, on that example, it's below freezing except for the lowest layer below 950mb. That sounding shows the ground at 1000mb, but in reality it's a little higher than that for Charlotte...maybe 980mb or so, but it varies (not fixed) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DopplerWx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 18z gfs was hhnnnng. glad we have something to track. will be nice if the models keep showing it thru the weekend, then we can start getting excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Well, we know Sean probably is. EPS graphs weren't too enthused If for some reason that was about me, I took a few days off from here and am less butt-hurt now. In fact, I don't even get on these fourms when I drink anymore. If it wasn't about me, nvm! Here were the 12z EPS numbers from various locations. These are total numbers out of 51 possible. KAHN - 4 KATL - 7 KBHM - 7 KCAE - 5 KCHA - 14 KCHS - 3 KCLT - 12 KFAY - 6 KGSO - 16 KGSP - 12 KGVL - 8 KHSV - 14 KMCN - 4 KMGM - 4 KMYR - 5 KPGV - 8 KRDU - 10 KRWI - 9 KSAV - 2 KTYS - 36 As you guys can see they could be worse, but they aren't great. Chris is convinced (along with some others here) that the Euro is all over the place and has no clue what's going on. The GFS for the most part has been more consistent with the GEFS trending colder and now as we just saw the 18z hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 If for some reason that was about me, I took a few days off from here and am less butt-hurt now. In fact, I don't even get on these fourms when I drink anymore. If it wasn't about me, nvm! Here were the 12z EPS numbers from various locations. These are total numbers out of 51 possible. KAHN - 4 KATL - 7 KBHM - 7 KCAE - 5 KCHA - 14 KCHS - 3 KCLT - 12 KFAY - 6 KGSO - 16 KGSP - 12 KGVL - 8 KHSV - 14 KMCN - 4 KMGM - 4 KMYR - 5 KPGV - 8 KRDU - 10 KRWI - 9 KSAV - 2 KTYS - 36 As you guys can see they could be worse, but they aren't great. Chris is convinced (along with some others here) that the Euro is all over the place and has no clue what's going on. The GFS for the most part has been more consistent with the GEFS trending colder and now as we just saw the 18z hit. Superjames had 49/51 for the event the other and got nothing. Some low numbers might not be good but high numbers have not been good either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 If for some reason that was about me, I took a few days off from here and am less butt-hurt now. In fact, I don't even get on these fourms when I drink anymore. If it wasn't about me, nvm! As you guys can see they could be worse, but they aren't great. Chris is convinced (along with some others here) that the Euro is all over the place and has no clue what's going on. The GFS for the most part has been more consistent with the GEFS trending colder and now as we just saw the 18z hit. Just a heads up he is talking about the other Sean. Long standing joke since once the board owner before this accused him of being a drunk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wow Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Believe at your own risk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I do think the EURO is lost with the medium range when it comes to that ENERGY** I am now more than ever skeptical when I see storms all over the place with the euro and its dealing with energy coming from the 4 corners/rockies region. We have had 4 different solutions over the last 4 runs...I honestly don't trust it right now, especially with a stronger solution. IF the gfs was super strong, then maybe..but, why buck the trend now? The trend has been weaker with everything for the most part this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowNiner Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Red line is temp, green line is dewpoint. Where they are close together, moisture is high. The temp scale is on the bottom, and the temp lines are the black lines that slant up and to the right (from 'southwest' to northeast' on the chart). So, on that example, it's below freezing except for the lowest layer below 950mb. That sounding shows the ground at 1000mb, but in reality it's a little higher than that for Charlotte...maybe 980mb or so, but it varies (not fixed) Thanks grit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 18z GEFS also has a strong storm signal for the same time period with about the same track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shawn Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Just a heads up he is talking about the other Sean. Long standing joke since once the board owner before this accused him of being a drunk. No problem. I think it's a sign that I may drink too much if I was even thinking it was about me. So I'll try my best to post better from now on. I do think the EURO is lost with the medium range when it comes to that ENERGY** I am now more than ever skeptical when I see storms all over the place with the euro and its dealing with energy coming from the 4 corners/rockies region. We have had 4 different solutions over the last 4 runs...I honestly don't trust it right now, especially with a stronger solution. IF the gfs was super strong, then maybe..but, why buck the trend now? The trend has been weaker with everything for the most part this winter. Good post, and after watching the Euro for the past couple of month I'm beginning to put a lot less trust into it and it's EPS so far out. It really has thrown us some odd solutions that haven't verified. The same could be said for all the models though. We are entering an amazing period soon to test the new GFS out vs the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.