mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 I'm all in for tomorrow ! I don't care that it will be rain, but just having precip is a win! I will take my sprinkle and love it! Who cares that it comes in at like 8 pm after a full day of heating!? Long live the January 15/16 th storm thread! An overperformer , to the fullest! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 It seems like these systems always come in right after sunset so that the clouds capture maximum heating from the daytime and BL temperatures subsequently screw us. Tomorrow will be no exception. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 So the low on the GFS 00z in the lakes is the polar vortex and is good to have there setting up for the 23rd? Someone on here said something to that effect? I thought I was suppose to hate lake lows in our winter threats? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 00z GFS replaces the 1031mb high over New York with a LP system...so obviously no cold to work with here for the 1/24 system...999mb LP off coast of NC though. Great, great track though. I'm not worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 00z GFS replaces the 1031mb high over New York with a LP system...so obviously no cold to work with here for the 1/24 system...999mb LP off coast of NC though. Great, great track though. I'm not worried.Per Bob Chill, the low in the lakes is good this time!! We are too fixated on that low! Most of the time when they are on the models , they don't verify, but I think this one we want to verify!? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Per Bob Chill, the low in the lakes is good this time!! We are too fixated on that low! Most of the time when they are on the models , they don't verify, but I think this one we want to verify!? I wouldn't say any lakes low is good. High pressure is good. A lakes low associated with strong upper level low over the lakes isn't a dagger. The pattern the euro had was pretty good. The 0z gfs has the closed h5 contour up near hudson so it's not apples to apples. Euro was a non worrisome lakes low. Gfs is a warm vacuum but still not a dagger because there was no early phase between the ss and ns. The key to judging a lakes low is what is going on above it at h5. We're going to get a lot of different looks on op runs for days. As long as we keep the southern stream vort in play we all have a shot. If that goes away, who gives a crap about a lakes low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The 00z Canadian has an inland runner. Rain for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 00z GFS Ensemble Mean was a tick south and a tick colder compared to the 18z mean for late next week. Storm signal is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The 00z Canadian has an inland runner. Rain for all. Yes it was...That could also be a concern. HM and Allan were talking yesterday on twitter about how this could easily end up cutting inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The 00z Canadian has an inland runner. Rain for all.it was at 12z too, it's less wouND up and farther east on the 0z. That might be right where we want the euro at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 GFS is close but no cigar for next week. Our energy ends up in the meat grinder. Something is coming on it's heels though. Overall very good look for the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 GFS is close but no cigar for next week. Our energy ends up in the meat grinder. Something is coming on it's heels though. Overall very good look for the pattern. This has been happening all winter. What exactly is the meat grinder and what needs to change to keep these systems from getting strung out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Gotta love how the GFS has a strung out POS while the Euro gets mega-wrapped up and heads to Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 15, 2015 Author Share Posted January 15, 2015 This has been happening all winter. What exactly is the meat grinder and what needs to change to keep these systems from getting strung out? Keep in mind that most locations wouldn't want a wound up system, either. A weak system traversing the N GOM (Miller A) with cold enough air to the north is usually the ticket based on 130+ years of old wx maps. Too strong/wound up usually means too warm for most of the SE/too far north. Many of the biggest and most widespread SE snows have come from weak/sliding lows that usually move ENE. That's almost always what I root for fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 The GEM looks similar to the GFS, from what I can tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Euro looks more diggy to me for next week at 5h compared to 00z last night. Let's see where it goes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Looking better this run. Closer to GFS @168...man that energy in the west means business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 EURO is going to have another look it appears with this...At this point, 6z thur, we won't see the big phaser. Looks closer to 12z run yesterday at 500mb as of now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 This run isn't going to cut, at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 EURO is going to have another look it appears with this...At this point, 6z thur, we won't see the big phaser. Looks closer to 12z run yesterday at 500mb as of now. That cutoff low means business. I like this look but it may not be cold enough this go round. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 You know it's been a bad winter when we've been doing PBP on a 200 hour storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Whoa nelly this could be a big one for NC. SFC temps are not perfect with a ton of WAA coming in but the look to our north should give us a colder look overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 @204 it's too warm for everyone outside of the northern fringes of NC. Good track...just need a little more cold air to work with out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Say it Burger, say it- BOOM! We have been waiting all winter to hear it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 850s would support all-snow for I-40 northwards, though precip isn't too heavy that far north and 2m temps are in the mid 30s. Let's not forget that the Euro showed a cutter 12 hours ago, though, so meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Say it Burger, say it- BOOM! We have been waiting all winter to hear it. Lol not this run! It actually looks a lot like what happens when the Euro sniffs out a storm. You get some trailing energy that comes behind for a second shot of sorts. Too warm on the sfc...the great news is this is over a week away. The bad news is this is over a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 #fail again. This is another funky kind of run. What kind of look will we see at 00z?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 This run crushes most of VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 15, 2015 Share Posted January 15, 2015 Lol not this run! It actually looks a lot like what happens when the Euro sniffs out a storm. You get some trailing energy that comes behind for a second shot of sorts. Too warm on the sfc...the great news is this is over a week away. The bad news is this is over a week away. Tells me that there is going to be some wild swings on the the models shown for the next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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