downeastnc Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Yeah, not likely at this point. Temp still at 38 with the dew point increasing to 31 at RDU. Not trending in the right direction. I know colder/drier air is working in. But it's always delayed it seems. Oh well. At least the LR is looking brighter...for today. Yeah I know, sucks even with a 1041 MB high in a favorable spot we cant seem to pull it off...it will get just cold enough for a few hrs right around 5am to freeze my truck up so it takes me 30 mins to get it clear to go to work in the morning then it will warm up and melt everything as soon as I get to work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmh90 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Yeah I know, sucks even with a 1041 MB high in a favorable spot we cant seem to pull it off...it will get just cold enough for a few hrs right around 5am to freeze my truck up so it takes me 30 mins to get it clear to go to work in the morning then it will warm up and melt everything as soon as I get to work. Such is life while living in eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 If you live in the foothills or western Piedmont, I wouldn't look at the 18z nam. Parts of the foothills look to see nothing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 If you live in the foothills or western Piedmont, I wouldn't look at the 18z nam. Parts of the foothills look to see nothing now. Don't look at the radar either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 36/29 NE 9 MPH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Don't look at the radar either. just did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Well, I guess if we end up somewhere in the middle of this morning's model outputs and this afternoon's it would still be a good hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 For what it's worth, I measured a temp of 36.0 degrees about 30 minutes ago with a handheld thermometer in south raleigh... don't know if RDU is just warm or whether my device is too cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Well, I guess if we end up somewhere in the middle of this morning's model outputs and this afternoon's it would still be a good hit. Your head is going to explode.... The most likely outcome for your area imo is 30-31 and light rain which won't do much bud. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 You're head is going to explode.... The most likely outcome for your area imo is 30-31 and light rain which won't do much bud. Why would my head explode? And you have no idea what might happen here anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Your head is going to explode.... The most likely outcome for your area imo is 30-31 and light rain which won't do much bud.This pretty much was the forecast all along. Weenies... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Important highlights of the RAH AFD: ARRIVAL OF COLD AIR TONIGHT DELAYED SEVERAL HOURS RECENT RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO BE UNDERPERFORMING GUIDANCE WOULD FAVOR THE MEAN OR LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS Typical winter weather event in NC. Edit: But, at least it's something. It's going to turn out about how I thought it would a few days ago, although I was hoping it would trend more substantially. you missed the context. "ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN." 9pm-12am when Raleigh will reach freezing is a large amount of time difference, IMO. "RECENT RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO BE UNDERPERFORMING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN THE PATTERN OF A PROGRESSIVE WAVE WITH RATHER SHALLOW SATURATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...WOULD FAVOR THE MEAN OR LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. HAVE ACCORDINGLY INCLUDED STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.07 AT GSO TO .23 AT RDU TO .42 AT FAY AN GSB." 0.23-0.42" isn't bad... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LithiaWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Why would my head explode? And you have no idea what might happen here anyway. Everyone knows what is going to happen if you can read. The writing is on the wall for Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 For what it's worth, I measured a temp of 36.0 degrees about 30 minutes ago with a handheld thermometer in south raleigh... don't know if RDU is just warm or whether my device is too cold. Durham is at 37/30, Henderson is 36/29, Rocky Mount is 39/31, Smithfield is 39/34, and Sanford is 38/36, all as of roughly 4:00 pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Everyone knows what is going to happen if you can read. The writing is on the wall for Raleigh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 you missed the context. "ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN." 9pm-12am when Raleigh will reach freezing is a large amount of time difference, IMO. Good point! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lookout Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 you missed the context. "ESPECIALLY ACROSS LOCATIONS NEAR THE SOUTH CAROLINA BORDER AND ACROSS THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL PLAIN." 9pm-12am when Raleigh will reach freezing is a large amount of time difference, IMO. "RECENT RADAR TRENDS SEEM TO BE UNDERPERFORMING GUIDANCE ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION AND SAVANNAH RIVER VALLEY. GIVEN THE PATTERN OF A PROGRESSIVE WAVE WITH RATHER SHALLOW SATURATION AND ISENTROPIC LIFT...WOULD FAVOR THE MEAN OR LIGHTER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. HAVE ACCORDINGLY INCLUDED STORM TOTAL PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF AROUND 0.07 AT GSO TO .23 AT RDU TO .42 AT FAY AN GSB." 0.23-0.42" isn't bad... It might not show on radar but it's very wet outside here. There has been a super duper heavy drizzle with light rain here for hours..so much so that if it was freezing it would actually add up pretty nicely on exposed surfaces. So it's probably a bit wetter than they realize upstream. Whether that means much or not for rdu/north carolina I don't know but it certainly is not dry here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Temps hovering near freezing never leads to much ice accrual here in central NC. We need a cold/dry air feed with temps dropping or holding steady near 29f or below. Especially since the ground level surfaces are above freezing. Wind gusts to 25mph may be problematic with light elevated icing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 It might not show on radar but it's very wet outside here. There has been a super duper heavy drizzle with light rain here for hours..so much so that if it was freezing it would actually add up pretty nicely on exposed surfaces. So it's probably a bit wetter than they realize upstream. Whether that means much or not for rdu/north carolina I don't know but it certainly is not dry here. Radar is starting to build a little bit westward into SC(..keeping the hope alive): http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=GSP&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Here's a good one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solak Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Here's the full afternoon briefing slideshow from NWS-RAH http://www.erh.noaa.gov/rah/news/NWSRaleighBriefing13January2015_330PM.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Nice weenie radar find, Cold Rain! All-in!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 My updated thoughts and last call map, if yall want to check out. If you want to like my page, if you haven't already, please do so. Thanks! Have fun with yalls ZR event. They are fun, and obviously very hard to forecast. -Chris https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Here's a good one! usa.gif Even with the models backing off on totals, that's still a lot of moisture building to our south (even if it is light). We need to get these temps to drop below freezing and we can still have at least an interesting event. **dew point down to 21 in Farmville VA, teens at Richmond. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted January 13, 2015 Author Share Posted January 13, 2015 I know it's late, but the gfs looked slightly better for the triangle I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 This is what the HRRR thinks the radar should look like... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Nice weenie radar find, Cold Rain! All-in!!! I love me some Intellicast radar! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I know it's late, but the gfs looked slightly better for the triangle I believe. What do you mean? It's never too late for false weenie hope!! Bring it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I know it's late, but the gfs looked slightly better for the triangle I believe. It was, .1-.25". I think we (triangle) are looking at .1-.2", not the .3-.4" range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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