Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 What are the temps like, Pack? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The NAVGEM is interesting. It is wet overall, but more jackpots the GSO area compared to RDU. We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Cold Rain better get his flashlights ready. This is about 20-30 miles from being a big deal, per the Euro. Already is a big deal just east of Wake County down 95 corridor. That would still be winter storm criteria for you and winter weather advisory criteria for me. I'll take that to the bank right now. Edit: Would be winter storm criteria for Cold Rain... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Webberweather53 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 So does that mean I'm going to get more than a trace of freezing rain? This -VP burst looks considerably weaker than all other events we've observed to date because the MJO is traveling considerably slower w/ rather high amplitude on the other side of the globe, at least compared to the moist CCKW behavior we've seen over the last few months. This makes sense knowing that MJO amplitude starts to tick upward in the JFM tri-monthly period, coinciding w/ the annual variance & phase cycle in the Equatorial Pacific SSTs & its associated gradient, w/ a lower gradient appearing to coincide w/ higher MJO amplitude & of course higher variance in the ENSO index The seasonal cycle in SSTs is partially to blame for the collapse in the Equatorial Pacific SST gardient in the spring. It's amazing transformation actually, in the fall (SON) the gradient is nearly 8C versus ~4C in MAM tri-monthly (which also effects the intensity of the easterly trade winds & bjerknes feedback, both of which are generally weakest in the spring, also in concert w/ the SST gradient collapse. It's no wonder that the ENSO predictability barrier for the climate models is in the spring, when the Eq Pac is most susceptible to intraseasonal Oceanic KW variance. This collage below shows the tri-monthly NOAA Extended SSTs for the 4 tri-monthlies from DJF (top) thru SON (bottom). I use a SST range from 21.5 to 29.5C w/ an interval of .25C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justicebork Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The Nam/Euro agreement platter at 48 hours is mmmm mmmm good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Cold Rain better get his flashlights ready. This is about 20-30 miles from being a big deal, per the Euro. Already is a big deal just east of Wake County down 95 corridor. Timing would be crucial there ... obviously getting that rain before temps dipped below 0c wouldn't serve any purpose. FWIW, the NAM did push a pulse of moisture through the Sandhills between 6 and 9 a.m. If the EURO is seeing the same thing, that would make for a messy morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 The NAVGEM is interesting. It is wet overall, but more jackpots the GSO area compared to RDU. We'll see. How wet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 This -VP burst looks considerably weaker than all other events we've observed to date because the MJO is traveling considerably slower w/ rather high amplitude on the other side of the globe, at least compared to the moist CCKW behavior we've seen over the last few months. This makes sense knowing that MJO amplitude starts to tick upward in the JFM tri-monthly period, coinciding w/ the annual variance & phase cycle in the Equatorial Pacific SSTs & its associated gradient, w/ a lower gradient appearing to coincide w/ higher MJO amplitude & of course higher variance in the ENSO index The seasonal cycle in SSTs is partially to blame for the collapse in the Equatorial Pacific SST gardient in the spring. It's amazing transformation actually, in the fall (SON) the gradient is nearly 8C versus ~4C in MAM tri-monthly (which also effects the intensity of the easterly trade winds & bjerknes feedback, both of which are generally weakest in the spring, also in concert w/ the SST gradient collapse. It's no wonder that the ENSO predictability barrier for the climate models is in the spring, when the Eq Pac is most susceptible to intraseasonal Oceanic KW variance. This collage below shows the tri-monthly NOAA Extended SSTs for the 4 tri-monthlies from DJF (top) thru SON (bottom). I use a SST range from 21.5 to 29.5C w/ an interval of .25C. So, um, was that a yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 What are the temps like, Pack? Soon as precip starts looks to drop below 32F, get's as low as 28F for RDU during the heaviest precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 How wet? Looks to be around .1 or so for RDU with perhaps a little more toward GSO. My take-away is that it's in the camp of putting measurable QPF over the eastern Piedmont as opposed to focusing over the coastal plain. Thanks for the temp info, Pack. And, I'm just messing with Webber. Although, I'm not 100% sure, it seemed like the implication was that this will be a very light event, consistent with what the models are showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Pack what about winston area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Pack what about winston area? Roughly the same, precip is heavier east so it's 1-2F colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonathan Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Is the EE Rule still a thing? If so, this could get real ugly for much of NC. I'm on the outside looking in, but no thanks anyway on receiving ice. Snow or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 For those who keep up, Allan has his first call map up on Twitter. I'll let him do the honors here, Let's just say I wouldn't want to be traveling on I-95 or south on I-40 Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UNCCmetgrad Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 I don't think I can post the map but fwiw the ice accumulation product from EuroWx shows 1/4in of ice in North Carolina from far Eastern Montgomery County, through Moore, most of Lee, Northern Harnett, Southern Wake, Northern Johnson, then finally into Southwestern Nash County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Sounding as if NC could see a healthy dose of Ice products issued tomorrow. Remember, as Fire and Rescue, we collectively hate the word ICE! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Sounding as if NC could see a healthy dose of Ice products issued tomorrow. Remember, as Fire and Rescue, we collectively hate the word ICE! Yeah, looking at it locally, I could see the typical problems on the typical roads. Going to depend on how much QPF can make it back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lowpressure Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Yeah, looking at it locally, I could see the typical problems on the typical roads. Going to depend on how much QPF can make it back west. Looks to be worse going towards Monroe/Indian Trail. Backwards from normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CLTwx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Yeah, looking at it locally, I could see the typical problems on the typical roads. Going to depend on how much QPF can make it back west. This is interesting. Would the GFS and Euro pick up on the over running drizzle or is the QPF mainly produced from a developing weak LP? Seems like we are awfully close to .2 qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 What are temps like for GSP wed morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 What are temps like for GSP wed morning? An IMBY post from you? I'm shocked and dismayed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherlover Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 An IMBY post from you? I'm shocked and dismayed. wondered same thing for western piedmont area.. Shelby area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 18z NAM out to 30 hours looks about the same. Lets see where is goes from here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Simulated radar at hour 30. http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=030ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_030_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150112+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model At 36 hours http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_036_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=sim_radar&fhr=036&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150112+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Six hours later at hour 42 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=042ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_042_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150112+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 CAE 150114/1500Z 51 04009KT 32.3F DZ 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.007 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.03 0| 0|100 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Matthew East @eastwx 1m1 minute ago Here's my initial thoughts on the potential for a little icing tomorrow night into Wed AM. Subject to adjustments. pic.twitter.com/DgrZdpmSzo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 24 hr total at hour 42(but precip still going at RDU at this point): http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=042ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_042_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=precip_p24&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150112+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Total at hour 48: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_048_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=precip_p24&fhr=048&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150112+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Needless to say the NAM is wetter. Just looking at the 48 hour totals it looks like the .25 line gets almost to Charlotte. RDU looks to be right at .5 liquid. The big story here is how far back the .25 line went - Charlotte to Greensboro http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_051_precip_p24.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=18¶m=precip_p24&fhr=051&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150112+18+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FallsLake Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 Surface dew points at hour 30: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=NAM&grid=221&model_yyyy=2015&model_mm=01&model_dd=12&model_init_hh=18&fhour=30¶meter=DPTF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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