WidreMann Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 0.75"+ in downtown Raleigh you can forget any morning commute plans. A can dream. Honestly I don't want loss of power though...NAM needs to back off. lolWith the temps, enough sleet could mix in to make it less bad. We'll see. I still think it'll be patch around central NC, despite the NAM, GEMs and the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rduwx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 0.75"+ in downtown Raleigh you can forget any morning commute plans. A can dream. Honestly I don't want loss of power though...NAM needs to back off. lol Back off or get some of the upper levels colder... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Well RGEM will be out in 15 mins, that will be a reality check. Rgem will show .2 to RDU with a sharp cutoff to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Rgem will show .2 to RDU with a sharp cutoff to the west.You're generous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 You're generous. 18z was .15", I am going with the same for this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 You're generous. It'll be less near Chapel Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 With the temps, enough sleet could mix in to make it less bad. We'll see. I still think it'll be patch around central NC, despite the NAM, GEMs and the Euro. lol...yeah I'd prefer some more IP in there. It's going to take a lot for this trend to a non-event though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 It'll be less near Chapel Hill. I'm not in Chapel Hill. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 I'm not in Chapel Hill. Me either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 My thoughts at this point for yall in NC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Man, NAM is devastating for couple of towns in ENC. Although this could be just bias in NAM, this will make 00z GFS run even more interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 So what exactly is the driving mechanism for all of this rain? I mean the nam shows a 100%+ increase in qpf for a huge part of NC.. What's behind that? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 So what exactly is the driving mechanism for all of this rain? I mean the nam shows a 100%+ increase in qpf for a huge part of NC.. What's behind that? Sent from my iPhone Air and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Bloody RGEM is late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Bloody RGEM is lateJa, ich wolde dich vragen waz daz RGEM hat geseit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Bloody RGEM is late It must've crashed because of all the QPF it was spitting out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HKY_WX Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Anyone know what rdu got this morning vs what the mods were forecasting yesterday? All i know is there was street flooding everywhere on the way to work this morn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NAM might be underdone, with just looking at this models varibles. Dont buy the lows eventual placement as depicted in the 12km. 4km looks more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Anyone know what rdu got this morning vs what the mods were forecasting yesterday? All i know is there was street flooding everywhere on the way to work this morn. Was .85 at some earlier today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Anyone know what rdu got this morning vs what the mods were forecasting yesterday? All i know is there was street flooding everywhere on the way to work this morn. I can't believe a we weren't even under a special weather statement for that....at least, I didn't see one. There was a ton of street flooding, like you said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WidreMann Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Anyone know what rdu got this morning vs what the mods were forecasting yesterday? All i know is there was street flooding everywhere on the way to work this morn.The MAG site still has the 06z GFS available. It showed decent precip this morning, probably more than we actually got. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CaryWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 NAM might be underdone, with just looking at this models varibles. Dont buy the lows eventual placement as depicted in the 12km. 4km looks more reasonable. Bite your tongue. I don't believe it is underdone, but if so weez goin' be in the dark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Anyone know what rdu got this morning vs what the mods were forecasting yesterday? All i know is there was street flooding everywhere on the way to work this morn. I looked, NAM/RGEM did fairly well from 36 hours our, the GFS was awful at 36 hours out. It got better 12 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILMRoss Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Anyone know what rdu got this morning vs what the mods were forecasting yesterday? All i know is there was street flooding everywhere on the way to work this morn.RDU got officially 1.29. Seems a bit low, NCSU was completely waterlogged today even after the bulk of the rain.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Ja, ich wolde dich vragen waz daz RGEM hat geseit. taH pagh taHbe...that is the question that preoccupies us at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jon Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Mike Maze says there's a Winter Storm Watch coming out soon. It's on like donkey kong. "A Winter Storm Watch will be issued before 11PM for parts of the viewing area from 9PM Tuesday through noon Wednesday. The issue is for Freezing Rain that should accumulate!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevDodd Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Per NWS chat, a Winter Weather Watch will be coming out shortly for portions of eastern NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NC_WX10 Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 GFS was dry as a bone for the triad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BullCityWx Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 GFS also dry down this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SN_Lover Posted January 13, 2015 Share Posted January 13, 2015 Bite your tongue. I don't believe it is underdone, but if so weez goin' be in the dark Im not saying it will verify, but if everything is true with it's temps and UL, i think there is nothing weakening the low off of the cape. The 12km shows the low off the cape weakening and reforming southeast. i dunt buy that because thats not the path of least resistance of most PVA. Also isentropic lift will also lower the low due to the CAD. if the varibles in the NAM are right, which im not saying they are, i think this is underdone. I hope the NAM verifies. I'm going all in on this storm time to breakout the candles and flashlights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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