weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 The NAM is definitely solid for prob MA Pike (maybe even just south of the Pike) and a bit north. The NAM has a bit more of an organized system (losing that term loosely) and close to the coast with the circulation and really pushes warmer air well into CT and just into MA. Probably some frozen to begin here but quickly transitioning to sleet and rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I wouldn't quite say that. The CMC is loaded with qpf and was showing snow to Montreal yesterday. The NAM just looks anemic. It does? It has a little QPF bomb moving through CT with 3-hour totals over .35" in spots and a half inch of QPF from BOS to BDL it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It does? It has a little QPF bomb moving through CT with 3-hour totals over .35" in spots and a half inch of QPF from BOS to BDL it looks like.Sorry, you're right. I meant where it is snow and not rain but didn't clarify.Looks like up your way does OK (actually, Berks too), but it looks awful for everywhere in between. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Sorry, you're right. I meant where it is snow and not rain but didn't clarify. Looks like up your way does OK (actually, Berks too), but it looks awful for everywhere in between. Oh yeah sorry I thought you were talking about your area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Oh yeah sorry I thought you were talking about your area.No...Garth would get his rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Not really sure if something as advertised by the NAM would verify or not. Unless I'm overlooking something I don't see much in the way to suggest that we will see the low sort of become as developed as what the NAM does...not that it's really developed much but it has more of a defined circulation that GFS/Euro. Moisture should certainly available though and enough data to suggest overrunning precip. Might end up being a little too warm in the BL for non-heavy precip to fall as anything frozen but further inland should be fine. Just a question though about how far north precip gets and how much lift we are dealing with. Could get help from MLJ/ULJ (right entrance regions). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 No...Garth would get his rain. Yeah that's not happening though like the NAM. I'm feeling a southern solution for you guys. I'm still forecasting some light snow up here for the ski area, as a lot of models are showing a ribbon of higher RH and WAA shooting out ahead of the main isentropic lift to the north. So I think someone in NNE to CNE will get a nice east-west band of 2-3" of fluff, then there may be a break somewhere between that moisture and the larger WAA lift near the stationary boundary down near the south coast. I'd feel pretty good especially in the northern half of CT and C/W Mass. The only thing I'm seeing on some models right now is drier air in eastern New England, in like the CAD/Cold air tuck region of Maine down into NE Mass. You can see it on some of the RH plots at H85-H8. Sort of like a wedge of mid-level cold/dry air gets stuck there...something that's easily over-come and usually favorable in strong SWFE events, but wonder how it plays out with weaker isentropic lift and lighter precip falling into a dry layer there. At this point that's pretty much over-analyzing it though on a meso-scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 PF, like on the GFS? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 PF, like on the GFS? It makes sense... definitely not that juicy, haha... but its got what I'm thinking of there being two ribbons of moisture. One up north and one down south with some dry air coming in from the coastal plain in Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 New GFS likes VT,NH,ME where best frontogenesis is. I could see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 It makes sense... definitely not that juicy, haha... but its got what I'm thinking of there being two ribbons of moisture. One up north and one down south with some dry air coming in from the coastal plain in Maine. RH.jpg Nice screw zone for Ray land. Makes sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Canadian would make Ray happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Nice screw zone for Ray land. Makes sense. lol. He will be Yeah that's not happening though like the NAM. I'm feeling a southern solution for you guys. I'm still forecasting some light snow up here for the ski area, as a lot of models are showing a ribbon of higher RH and WAA shooting out ahead of the main isentropic lift to the north. So I think someone in NNE to CNE will get a nice east-west band of 2-3" of fluff, then there may be a break somewhere between that moisture and the larger WAA lift near the stationary boundary down near the south coast. I'd feel pretty good especially in the northern half of CT and C/W Mass. The only thing I'm seeing on some models right now is drier air in eastern New England, in like the CAD/Cold air tuck region of Maine down into NE Mass. You can see it on some of the RH plots at H85-H8. Sort of like a wedge of mid-level cold/dry air gets stuck there...something that's easily over-come and usually favorable in strong SWFE events, but wonder how it plays out with weaker isentropic lift and lighter precip falling into a dry layer there. At this point that's pretty much over-analyzing it though on a meso-scale. Yup. Way too early for this. (but, that's how we roll) Nice screw zone for Ray land. Makes sense. lol. He will be thrilled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Canadian would make Ray happy. details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 details? Nice snow north of pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Canadian would make Ray happy. lol his favorite...a gradient near the Pike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 I'll hope euro is correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Care to share Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Euro is basically a pike-job to CNE for 1-3"...changing to snow south fo pike but not much...maybe C-1. The QPF isn't that impressive..maybe 2 tenths. But it's a net gainer...a win this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Nice push of qpf, warms mid day to the pike then sags south. Verbatim for me I get snow to taint to a snowy mid late afternoonNd evening ending before midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 10, 2015 Author Share Posted January 10, 2015 Is it ice to snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Seems like we have no real consensus at this point. Odd for an event this close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Is it ice to snow? Maybe marginal..the problem in the morning is that the winds are not NE...they don't turn NE until later and then is when the mid-levels cool. 925 pushes NE, so you'd prob be like snow to 34F rain for a time back to snow...since you don't typically CAD that well. Not that any of this is big QPF...it's a minor event. There's still another 24 hours to rfeally hone in the details of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Seems like we have no real consensus at this point. Odd for an event this close For little crap events, the spread can seem larger than it is...we are talking wobbles of like 20-30 miles for temps on a 0.2-0.3" QPF event. On these junk events, we tend to hyper-focus on details that seem much larger than they are (i.e 2.5" of snow versus 1.2")...nobody would be dissecting 8.5" vs 9.7" on a larger event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 For little crap events, the spread can seem larger than it is...we are talking wobbles of like 20-30 miles for temps on a 0.2-0.3" QPF event. On these junk events, we tend to hyper-focus on details that seem much larger than they are (i.e 2.5" of snow versus 1.2")...nobody would be dissecting 8.5" vs 9.7" on a larger event. Yeah thats very true. I guess the nothing vs something aspect makes it seem like the spread is huge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Winds at pretty light out of the SW and W before going NW-N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Euro is basically a pike-job to CNE for 1-3"...changing to snow south fo pike but not much...maybe C-1. The QPF isn't that impressive..maybe 2 tenths. But it's a net gainer...a win this winter. Looks ok in NNE though...or decent. I read your post and then was surprised to see more QPF in NVT/NNH than in southern NH.The Berks to ORH jackpot though with 0.25-0.35" QPF...tapering to 0.15-.2" up here. Still some dry air or something coming down the coastline as the heaviest QPF is definitely western SNE of CT/Mass west of ORH. I think MPM looks to be in the best spot of consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Looks ok in NNE though...or decent. I read your post and then was surprised to see more QPF in NVT/NNH than in southern NH. The Berks to ORH jackpot though with 0.25-0.35" QPF...tapering to 0.15-.2" up here. Still some dry air or something coming down the coastline as the heaviest QPF is definitely western SNE of CT/Mass west of ORH. I think MPM looks to be in the best spot of consensus. Probably better frontogenesis there too. The para GFS showed that. I haven't seen the euro, but that's my guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 10, 2015 Share Posted January 10, 2015 Just saw the euro. Definitely mild pike and south at 925. Seems like it would flip to snow though at the end right as the QPF increase a bit. Not sure there is an upside here as more moisture would mean more milder air aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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