weathafella Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I think it over performs for BOS. Flags be damned....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I think it over performs for BOS. Physics be damned....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Explain. I'm saying I am thinking guidance is too warm in the 925 to surface. So I'm not sure what you're saying mike. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Explain. I'm saying I am thinking guidance is too warm in the 925 to surface. So I'm not sure what you're saying mike. We'll need either the front end or back end to do something, but that 925 temp is real. The surface could run a tick or two cooler. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Explain. I'm saying I am thinking guidance is too warm in the 925 to surface. So I'm not sure what you're saying mike. I know what you're saying, Jerry. I was making a joke (hence my smiley face). My take is that this will be coming in warm. Perhaps I'm just jaded this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 1-2 my call Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BostonWX Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 0.0 is my guess here. Maybe a coating if I'm lucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Nice to see Mitch and NWS seeing that Berkshire, Greens JP,nice refresher for Berkshire East and SVT. 3-6 for MPM Pete, Hippy Valley seems about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Well, if it is any consolation, it would only mean losing out on an inch or so 1-2 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Nice to see Mitch and NWS seeing that Berkshire, Greens JP,nice refresher for Berkshire East and SVT. 3-6 for MPM Pete, Hippy Valley seems about right I like your optimism. My elevation will keep me on the low end but I'm feeling this does not underperform here. I'll take 3" in a heartbeat. There would a decent pack here if that were the case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Well, if it is any consolation, it would only mean losing out on an inch or so 1-2 here . You've become jaded. You now ride the MPM Eyeore express to every event. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 wow, 8 pages ballooning over this.. You know what's funny about this thing, it's been in the charts for like 9 days, and hasn't varied. Yet, if you got a stem-winder in the charts you can hell bet that sucker's 86'ed ... usually and quite creepily waiting for everyone's vested attention before doing so. Ha. I was reading NWS' AFD and one statement stood out to me. "...DESPITE WET BULB EFFECTS...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL WARM GIVEN SW FLOW AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AND LACK OF GOOD SOURCE OF LOW LEVEL COLD...." This seems to be a recurring theme this cold season so far. Cold not timing well... We're getting this repeating cycling through cold shots that just en masse move out, leaving the region exposed to counter-current warm ups, or death bed ability to fend off warming in general. Whether cutters, coastal, overrunning or not ... seems the high's move off and then the whatever it is moves through. I wonder if that is just chaos and luck, or if there is something ...sort of systemic about the state of the atmosphere that favors that result. Probably some combination of both. Be whatever it is as it may ... -7F three days ago, -2 last night, and we have p-type headaches tomorrow? Interesting under-the-radar dramatic changes going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Has anyone ever noticed how Intellicast's national rad view looks like a tsunamis compared to clicking on the various rad regions? I'm looking at the blossoming shield in the western OV and then zooming in ... washer fluid nuisance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Most spots its 3" or greater. Edit I just saw Nittany posted 4".... I thought it was a 3" average or higher? If so, then widespread 4" maybe harder to get to. Edit number 2... so its 3" in Mass/CT/RI... but 4" in NH. Thanks. I doubt we'll see much of that down here. Perhaps a gratuitous one for western Hampshire/Franklin/northern ORH. Here's the map: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Here's the map: Just fyi - the AFD from NWS indicated they are issuing the advisory in CT and RI for the possibility of icing mixing in with the snow, not for 3" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nittany88 Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Just fyi - the AFD from NWS indicated they are issuing the advisory in CT and RI for the possibility of icing mixing in with the snow, not for 3" of snow Yeah they can issue an advisory for even a Trace of freezing rain if they feel like they need to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Sneaky icing tomorrow in areas that tick above freezing. This ground is cold, side streets FTL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Looking at the 18z NAM FRH grid ... it has .42" liq eq total at Logan. Thermal layering suggests starting very briefly as snow there (light) then going over to plain rain and pellets, .. then ending as brief light snow. Comparing the .3" total in ALB with their ~ -1C snow sounding, ...usually the index finger differential in this sort of scenario puts down 2-3" of snow with some contamination between Rt 2 and Pike ...beginning 20 or so miles W of Boston proper (more so farther west). I think it is interesting (a little) that the NAM's last three cycles have ticked up the QPF some .03 or more per run. The GGEM's synoptic QPF chart looks like a solid burst of moderate freezing rain after a brief snow start, for most S of the Ma/NH border, then ending as light snow. Don't know what the machine numbers are... May have to now cast this a tad... This system's moisture origin is down near the Arklotex area, and sometimes these southern critters bring douser amts at relatively weak system structure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Yeah they can issue an advisory for even a Trace of freezing rain if they feel like they need to. I always forget about the 12-hour criteria... definitely not going to get it in 12 hours up here. I could see 3-5" but over an 18 hour period or so as usually the case up here. It never comes on overly strong, but just slowly adds up over time. Type of thing where 6-hour measurements come in with like 1.2", 0.8", 1.5" for 3.5" total but like net gain of 3.0" on the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I like your optimism. My elevation will keep me on the low end but I'm feeling this does not underperform here. I'll take 3" in a heartbeat. There would a decent pack here if that were the case. Right there with you Chris on the 3". I think the higher amounts will be just west of here. Tip's comment on the NAM's increase in qpf output is interesting. Typically it would be cutting back on qpf at this point. It's also looking a bit warmer on the 18z allowing us to taint a bit. Just what I need--more glacier on the driveway and a growing plow berm at the end of it. 18.1/5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Professional Lurker Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Lol, box just updated my forecast as well as the accumulation map. Detailed Forecast Tonight. A chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Light south wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Monday. Snow before 10am, then snow and sleet. High near 33. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of around an inch possible. Monday Night. A chance of snow and sleet before 8pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 10. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation expected. According to them, I get just over an inch, and I flip to sleet. We toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Lol, box just updated my forecast as well as the accumulation map. Detailed Forecast Tonight. A chance of snow, mainly after 4am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 19. Light south wind. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Total nighttime snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Monday. Snow before 10am, then snow and sleet. High near 33. Light and variable wind. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow and sleet accumulation of around an inch possible. Monday Night. A chance of snow and sleet before 8pm. Cloudy, then gradually becoming partly cloudy, with a low around 10. Calm wind becoming north around 6 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 30%. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation expected. According to them, I get just over an inch, and I flip to sleet. We toss. In the p/c, they're giving me snow/ip over to snow after 3:00pm. with total accumulations of 1-2". ZFP has 1-3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Mid-levels warming up early and far into the interior of SNE. Accumulation killer for 95% of us--not that this ever had big accumulations. 18.3/6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Mid-levels warming up early and far into the interior of SNE. Accumulation killer for 95% of us--not that this ever had big accumulations. 18.3/6 And you are likely in the 5% that has the best chance for a few inches of snowfall in the SNE crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 And you are likely in the 5% that has the best chance for a few inches of snowfall in the SNE crew. I recognize that. But, the trend has been to be warming things up. I'm not sure if it might continue to tickle further north in the closing hours. BOX has it covered well though by introducing taint and minimizing accumulation forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 Mid-levels warming up early and far into the interior of SNE. Accumulation killer for 95% of us--not that this ever had big accumulations. 18.3/6 Much of Franklin Co (Deerfiled north) and N Berks will have a 2-3" tomorrow. That's pretty much jackpot so enjoy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randy4Confluence Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 I can see a flash freeze before Tues. AM rush hour in the 128 district including BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 11, 2015 Share Posted January 11, 2015 BTV's map... pretty much as expected with 3-5" interior VT mountain valleys with 5-8" along the peaks. 1-2" in the deeper valleys like the Champlain Valley and Connecticut River Valley. And in Upstate NY, deep SW upsloping flow should bring a good snowfall to the entire western half of the Adirondack Park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 12, 2015 Author Share Posted January 12, 2015 Couple of ideas.. I don't see anyone north of a PVD to IJD to DXR line getting above 32 tomorrow with cold north drain..All the warming is aloft even with early sw flow.. Interesting to models increase qpf..going to a zone say from the pike/ORH south to about HFD to N Ri that could see some ice accretion ..25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 12, 2015 Share Posted January 12, 2015 There isn't north drain though. I do think nrn CT will be tough to get above 32. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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