metwannabe Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The mid - end of week system looks like it's gonna be too warm as well the surface highs are pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deltadog03 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 It's frustrating that now we're getting a lot wetter trend with the 00z being quite wet, but now temperatures are too warm... Splitting the uprights with these highs. agreed!! now, we have to worry about the highs, as you said...ewww...The DOC will be interesting tonight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 agreed!! now, we have to worry about the highs, as you said...ewww...The DOC will be interesting tonight... Looks like it sets up for a pretty epic cold drizzle storm on the 15th, too. Maybe a flizzard for our S VA peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 0Z Goofy has backed way off of the potential midmonth Arctic airmass plunge fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Looks like it sets up for a pretty epic cold drizzle storm on the 15th, too. Maybe a flizzard for our S VA peeps. There was basically no storm for mid week on the GFS because it tries to crush the western ridge . The euro has a much better western ridge which leads to more digging and that's why we see it has a better storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 0Z Goofy has backed way off of the potential midmonth Arctic airmass plunge fwiw. No big deal it's been going back and forth from run to run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 No big deal it's been going back and forth from run to run Agreed. The 6Z or 12Z GFS or even the 0Z Euro could easily have it return. The GFS has been going back and forth with this one since at least last Friday's runs! The MJO may ~1/15 be in a COD phase that tends to be cold, too, if you believe some of the model progs. If so, maybe that would help the +PNA then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I think what grates me more than anything is that in the space of 4 days, we take two massive artic highs, first one currently over Kansas with a reinforcing high still in the NW Canada, and send both rocketing into the Atlantic. What a waste. Still early January, so hope springs eternal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Anyone see een the crap maps for cmc. I use tt for the color but it takes till well after midnight to updste. Also how bout the ukie it has good verefication scores, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Nights like this with ugly week 2 0Z op. GFS runs make me glad there is an active Para. We sort of get a 2nd chance. So, whoever has seen it, how does it look for the possible midmonth cold blast? Crossing my fingers and toes! Anyone staying up for the King (title regained from Goofy once last night's 0Z Euro was released)? Talk about very short reigns!! < 6 hours! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Nights like this with ugly week 2 0Z op. GFS runs make me glad there is an active Para. We sort of get a 2nd chance. So, whoever has seen it, how does it look for the possible midmonth cold blast? Crossing my fingers and toes! I've got it out to 165 so far...... It's gonna try larry. It has the euro mid week storm but it's too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Para has euro storm and probably gets big frosty and all of va. Me James and burns get 33 and rain. Loving it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Larry the GGEM is gonna have your cold blast for sure the western ridge is worlds better than the GFS and para Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Larry the GGEM is gonna have your cold blast for sure the western ridge is worlds better than the GFS and para 1) Yes!!! If only it weren't the Crazy Uncle lol. 2) So, the Para's western ridge also isn't strong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wild Weather Monger Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Nights like this with ugly week 2 0Z op. GFS runs make me glad there is an active Para. We sort of get a 2nd chance. So, whoever has seen it, how does it look for the possible midmonth cold blast? Crossing my fingers and toes! Anyone staying up for the King (title regained from Goofy once last night's 0Z Euro was released)? Talk about very short reigns!! < 6 hours! PARA is a torch after a swing and a miss with the midweek system out to 240. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 PARA is a torch after a swing and a miss with the midweek system out to 240. Ehhh not really a torch, ridge is centered over Mexico basically, it would be 5-7 above normal probably , remember there are wedge days in there next week being missed too. Both GFS runs are seeing a -NAO at the end, may be bogus though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 PARA is a torch after a swing and a miss with the midweek system out to 240. Thanks. Well, at least we have the GGEM on our side fwiw. And now I'll be anxiously awaiting the King to see if he can save us for at least midmonth. Nights like this make me really appreciate that we're not in DST! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metwannabe Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Larry the 00z GEFS looks much better than the OP. Much colder and has a coastal in the same period the euro does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro update: Storm #1: Cold rain. Storm #2 (Jan 15th): Cold rain... the storm wraps up really nicely and storms inland up through GA/SC/NC. Lots of precip, but a horrible track and we get cold rain. Even if it took a nice offshore track, there's not exactly a lot of cold to go around, so I don't see it working out. I don't really have any faith until after mid-month at this point. Maybe late January can produce, but I have little faith. I'm sure some winter storm will pop up at some point before winter is over; they always do. I'll take a sloppy inch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 The increased resolution hurts the parallel GFS, according to NOAA, it has a stronger warm bias in the boundary layer than the regular GFS (which is traded for less of a warm bias in the mid-levels, a feature that should quell the formation of "ghost" canes often observed in the long range on the regular GFS). This implies the parallel GFS is actually even worse w/ CAD Just getting to a computer since I have been traveling. Thank you for introducing the overall biases. Certainly helpful when having these discussions. However, seeing as this is a bias as opposed to the rule I would still think that under some circumstances surface temps may be modeled best with the PARA compared to at least the GFS, cold air damning being a possible candidate. Now knowing a tad bit about the PARA's surface temp bias I think understanding its performance with cold air damning as compared to the GFS comes down to the balance between high modeled terrain due to the increased resolution with the PARA versus the tendency for warmer near surface temperatures. For cold air damning higher (modeled) terrain generally leads more easterly flow being directed southward leading to the advection and maintanence of cold air. However, if the air is warmer to begin with perhaps the slight increase in buoyancy would lead counter or even overcome the effect. I'm absolutely open to your thoughts on this as I am just getting aquainted with the PARA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Smoked Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 As far as the current pattern goes it looks like we may have to thread the needle for one of these disturbances to work out. That being said, should high pressure set up in a climatologically favorable location I wouldn't be surprised to see a possible south-southeastward push of the baroclinic zone as higher resolution models better incorporate the Appalachians and related cold air damning. This would likely push surface low pressure further south while possibly suppressing it. A lot of ifs here but I just figured I'd share my thoughts on this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Ensemble mean still keeps the system a miller a that hugs the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Marion_NC_WX Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 For a storm being shown 6-7 days out...I really, really like the low track being shown on the Euro. It's not far off from a classic snowstorm track for Western North Carolina (West of I-77) We just need the northern stream to cooperate a bit more bringing us the cold air...plenty of time for this to adjust one way or the other!Even here in the Southeast US where every storm has to fit just right, to have a track on a storm that far out in middle January will keep my attention until it converts to a different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro @ 120: What's wrong with this? Has all of the precip fallen? Is the high not in a good spot? It looks like a pretty good setup for ice to me at H5, even though the model isn't showing the damming signature yet. GFS has a similar setup, though it looks like the precip is ending on this frame: A 1040 high is pretty strong...and it's in a pretty darn good position on both models. And then you have the 240 Euro. Yuck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
burgertime Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 Euro @ 120: What's wrong with this? Has all of the precip fallen? Is the high not in a good spot? It looks like a pretty good setup for ice to me at H5, even though the model isn't showing the damming signature yet. f120.gif GFS has a similar setup, though it looks like the precip is ending on this frame: gfs120.gif A 1040 high is pretty strong...and it's in a pretty darn good position on both models. And then you have the 240 Euro. Yuck. f240.gif I was going to comment on the same thing. Good high, good placement but on the surface there is zero CAD on the surface. Lots of moisture associated with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 ColdRain - Euro busted by 8 degrees this morning. Had a low of 18 but we hit 10F. The Euro has almost 1" QPF during that period with a 1040HP over the lakes. We better hope it's right with temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brick Tamland Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 ColdRain - Euro busted by 8 degrees this morning. Had a low of 18 but we hit 10F. The Euro has almost 1" QPF during that period with a 1040HP over the lakes. We better hope it's right with temps. I was going to say I think it was colder here than forecasted. Fishel actually mentioned yesterday about the Euro being too warm with the temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I was going to say I think it was colder here than forecasted. Fishel actually mentioned yesterday about the Euro being too warm with the temps. It's usually to warm with dry cold but it's usually correct when it makes a difference for wintery weather like next week :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I was going to comment on the same thing. Good high, good placement but on the surface there is zero CAD on the surface. Lots of moisture associated with it. ColdRain - Euro busted by 8 degrees this morning. Had a low of 18 but we hit 10F. The Euro has almost 1" QPF during that period with a 1040HP over the lakes. We better hope it's right with temps. I'm just not sure why everyone is so glum with this threat. Maybe I just don't know what to look for with CAD. But with the placement and strength of that high, there HAS to be damming, right? I don't care what the models have for temps at this range. I would think at least SOME damming has to be occurring with that setup. Maybe in the end, the temps/wetbulbs won't be cold enough, but at this range, it looks good to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mackerel_sky Posted January 8, 2015 Share Posted January 8, 2015 I'm just not sure why everyone is so glum with this threat. Maybe I just don't know what to look for with CAD. But with the placement and strength of that high, there HAS to be damming, right? I don't care what the models have for temps at this range. I would think at least SOME damming has to be occurring with that setup. Maybe in the end, the temps/wetbulbs won't be cold enough, but at this range, it looks good to me.The shortwave is in a data sparse area of the Pacific, so it has not been properly sampled !I would think a high in that position would have a good CAD! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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