weathafella Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Yes me too Jerry. I think Dan 123 was saying it because he thought it was a bad thing for the continuation of a wintry pattern...although I could be mistaken by assuming that as well??? Well I think if it's truly an Aleutian low that doesn't encompass he entire ak region it's good. Good because it will tend to pump up heights to the east and allow PNA. One of the things that Will and Scott stressed in the autumn is we want an Aleutian low. When that low retrogrades towards Siberia sometimes bad things happen particularly if we don't have the ridge north of ak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Ray, why you thinking that? Cuz the cold is firmly entrenched? Just wondering. Because the next two threats are crap, and I don't think we go into the second half of January without another event. I guess you could call it an educated hunch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Well I think if it's truly an Aleutian low that doesn't encompass he entire ak region it's good. Good because it will tend to pump up heights to the east and allow PNA. One of the things that Will and Scott stressed in the autumn is we want an Aleutian low. When that low retrogrades towards Siberia sometimes bad things happen particularly if we don't have the ridge north of ak. So picture a low height anomaly near and south of the Aleutians on here. It's not hard to see how the ridge becomes favorable for Miller Bs if you push this east near the west coast. You may not have vodka cold, but a +PNA can deliver more than enough cold if the ridge amplitude is strong enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 That is the first bonafide threat imho Your favorite, late-bloomers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Because the next two threats are crap, and I don't think we go into the second half of January without another event. I guess you could call it an educated hunch. I think the 4th has potential, but that may just be poster location in determining which threat we each think has potential. But you could do really well in that event if it goes SWFE with that arctic air there...or at least better than most in SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 We'll see...Just a hunch, but either way, of to the races soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Because the next two threats are crap, and I don't think we go into the second half of January without another event. I guess you could call it an educated hunch. Good Enough..Thanks . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 So picture a low height anomaly near and south of the Aleutians on here. It's not hard to see how the ridge becomes favorable for Miller Bs if you push this east near the west coast. You may not have vodka cold, but a +PNA can deliver more than enough cold if the ridge amplitude is strong enough. gfs-ens_z500a_nhem_384.png Great illustration! Thank You for showing that Scott!! It's Appreciated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Well I think if it's truly an Aleutian low that doesn't encompass he entire ak region it's good. Good because it will tend to pump up heights to the east and allow PNA. One of the things that Will and Scott stressed in the autumn is we want an Aleutian low. When that low retrogrades towards Siberia sometimes bad things happen particularly if we don't have the ridge north of ak. Thank You Jerry for the explanation...I see you what you mean now, and agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Great illustration! Thank You for showing that Scott!! It's Appreciated. I really encourage people to look at those H5 anomalies. It tells the story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 18z GFS brings some front-end snow to SNE, but really has CNE/NNE cash in. Quick question regarding the Para--on tropical tidbits, it has it in 6-hour increments unlike the 3-hour ones in the regular GFS. Does anyone know what the 'ready for prime-time' runs will be showing? 29.7/16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 18z GFS brings some front-end snow to SNE, but really has CNE/NNE cash in. Quick question regarding the Para--on tropical tidbits, it has it in 6-hour increments unlike the 3-hour ones in the regular GFS. Does anyone know what the 'ready for prime-time' runs will be showing? 29.7/16 Not that it matters, but that would be a nice 6-10" dump north of the Pike ala '07-08 before any changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 That is a classic SWFE on the GFS. That would be a nice surprise north of the pike for sure. Yes it is far out, but just saying verbatim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 The GGEM and EURO runs today have a late blooming coastal storm near hour 216 on the GGEM and near hour 240 on the EURO. The GFS might be showing this system as well near hour 168 over the northern plains associated energy with the northern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 That is a classic SWFE on the GFS. That would be a nice surprise north of the pike for sure. Yes it is far out, but just saying verbatim. As one of the possibility discussed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Not that it matters, but that would be a nice 6-10" dump north of the Pike ala '07-08 before any changeover. 6-10" events were quite common in 07-08, Those were your staple SWFE's Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 That is a classic SWFE on the GFS. That would be a nice surprise north of the pike for sure. Yes it is far out, but just saying verbatim.Im fine with 3-5 then ice. Don't need a jack like some folks. Just lay down a mantle and drop Hammertime cold on em. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Keep an eye on that weak low that scoots east over NNE on the models, that reinforces the low level cold and could be a big important piece of the puzzle. You can see this at hr 102 and 108 on the GFS. The GFS is dam cold at the surface even at BOS for awhile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Yeah Scott, I believe models are slower with the SW piece of energy ejecting, and therefore give more time for the northern stream to deliver the arctic air mass needed to give us some front end snowfall. Also the GFS now has the clipper low intensifying off the east coast of the US. This is another redux clipper/ explosive scenario developing, however its at least 177 hours out, GFS is faster with timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 We'll have to be careful that the mid level warmth doesn't flood into areas south of the pike a little faster than expected, in classic swfe fashion... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Keep an eye on that weak low that scoots east over NNE on the models, that reinforces the low level cold and could be a big important piece of the puzzle. You can see this at hr 102 and 108 on the GFS. The GFS is dam cold at the surface even at BOS for awhile. Last few runs have had that feature with some some up slope snows over the mtns and lighter snow further east as it moves off to the NE over the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 We'll have to be careful that the mid level warmth doesn't flood into areas south of the pike a little faster than expected, in classic swfe fashion... As well as the precip always arrives sooner then modeled Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 A poster earlier mentioned the first real threat isn't until Jan 7/8, and they aren't looking at models , so tiptoeing around where the mid level warmth tickles would seem irrelevant to them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Every threat from today onward has at least some frozen qpf for the majority of New England. Pattern change is in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Its important to read thread titles so everyone is in the same page in discussing verbatim model solutions only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 Last few runs have had that feature with some some up slope snows over the mtns and lighter snow further east as it moves off to the NE over the region Yeah that could be some sneaky snows to freshen up the municipal skating rinks in many front yards around here lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 While there is the threat for mainly snow on the 3-5th event, there is better potential if the models continue to show it for the 7-8th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted December 29, 2014 Share Posted December 29, 2014 I knew as soon as I packed and started my travels to the south New England would enter hammer time. Thinking all along from the way the models have evolved 5th-10th (is) was prime-time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 Swfe event vibe on American and Canadian guidance (notwithstanding the para flatter ots with moisture thrown back). I think the idea of a messy swfe event should be the go to thought until we get closer. a sloppy mess would fit the bill for our well anticipated pattern change storm. seems like a decent shot at front end snow for many in the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted December 30, 2014 Share Posted December 30, 2014 The para definitely looks messy. However, that would still be at least some snow for the majority here. Even if only a few inches. Verbatim, it may also flip folks back over on the backside. It also has that clipper/redeveloper a few days later. This is a pretty interesting storm to track. Seems like the first storm where most on this forum could get a piece of the action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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