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MetHerb

January 2015 Pattern Discussion

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It shows how bad the models are if indeed the AO does go negative because right now the ensembles show anything but a -AO pattern

week OF the 16th is my call so 16th-23rd is my call, win or lose

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Steve, what in the hell are you basing that on? Swells at the tip of the northhead iceberg, off Greenland's south coast??

 

lol... Ginxy will never get down on a pattern.  After a few posts about "meh"... he can find some nugget of gold to try and boost spirits.

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Emotional posts about canceling winter and such can stay in the banter thread.

 

This thread is for discussing the pattern going forward objectively. Lets keep the psycho-analysis out of here.

 

 

 

Euro ENS look like a thaw around MLK...but if you extrapolated out it doesn't look long-lasting as heights are already starting to recover over AK. Also, the Euro ens have been looking too warm in the LR the past 6-10 days...they have had to cool as we get closer, so don't take them hook, line, and sinker yet.

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Steve, what in the hell are you basing that on? Swells at the tip of the northhead iceberg, off Greenland's south coast??

 

 

lol... Ginxy will never get down on a pattern.  After a few posts about "meh"... he can find some nugget of gold to try and boost spirits.

yea so I am just an idiot wishcaster, heck with both of ya. this came out AFTER I said that last night FYI

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I'd be very surprised if we got a real -NAO by the 20th but stranger things have happened. 2005 did it out of nowhere so it can happen. But I'm leaning against it right now. My hope is that it flips in time for February. In the meantime we can hope one of these shortwaves amplifies just via the PNA ridge we get out west.

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I haven't been in here for a few days and don't feel like reading back, but we have canceled the next 10 days right? 

 

Snow showers on Friday looks like the only threat.

 

Also on a side note......anyone else see the Euro Ensemble MSLP mean advertising a 1058 mb HP over the plains on Wednesday?

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I haven't been in here for a few days and don't feel like reading back, but we have canceled the next 10 days right? 

 

Snow showers on Friday looks like the only threat.

 

Also on a side note......anyone else see the Euro Ensemble MSLP mean advertising a 1058 mb HP over the plains on Wednesday?

 

Why would we cancel the next 10 or 11 days? 

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yea so I am just an idiot wishcaster, heck with both of ya. this came out AFTER I said that last night FYI

Haha it wasn't meant to be a bad thing...you just have that glass half full mentality and can always find a Ray of hope.

The day the world ends will be the day you come on here in winter and write a post about how the NAO/AO are going positive and winter is likely over ;)

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Why would we cancel the next 10 or 11 days? 

 

Because there is nothing exciting except for the bone chilling cold.  Unless I completely missed something.

 

I only saw the chance of snow showers Tuesday night and Friday morning.  Then the next chance of anything looked like the 14th-15th timeframe.

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Because there is nothing exciting except for the bone chilling cold.  Unless I completely missed something.

 

I only saw the chance of snow showers Tuesday night and Friday morning.  Then the next chance of anything looked like the 14th-15th timeframe.

 

Well other than the some light snows tomorrow and Friday, probably nothing until sometime next week. Something could come by day 8 or so. Maybe until like 13-14. 

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Well other than the some light snows tomorrow and Friday, probably nothing until sometime next week. Something could come by day 8 or so. Maybe until like 13-14. 

 

Oh well.  Just wasting some good cold. 

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Oh well.  Just wasting some good cold. 

 

 

Unless we don't.

 

That's why it's silly to speculate 8-9-10 days out on actual storm threats.

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But are there any actual storm threats.......

 

Maybe D8-9? It's been showing up off and on.

 

I don't find it really significant either way though given the time frame. You look for potential shortwaves in the flow with cold air around and it looks like there's a chance in there. We'll know more in a couple days.

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I wouldnt call the gefs/eps terribly different per se in where they end up around day 15/MLK day (particularly the 6z gefs)...Even the gfs shows the thaw developing, but the key difference is the gfs shows another very strong cold shot late next week before that happens, while the eps isnt latching onto the strength of that cold..

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Friday's clipper could be interesting. That s/w is getting a bit sharper, and SW winds will bring in some warmth and moisture relatively speaking. Could be one of those things with a wider band of snow pivoting through with  like 20DBZ echoes, or perhaps a band of lighter snows with some squalls embedded.

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Friday's clipper could be interesting. That s/w is getting a bit sharper, and SW winds will bring in some warmth and moisture relatively speaking. Could be one of those things with a wider band of snow pivoting through with  like 20DBZ echoes, or perhaps a band of lighter snows with some squalls embedded.

 

Edit: Never mind - I see what your saying based on the tropical tidbits site.  I was looking at old data.

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If this is right there ain't gonna be no thaw...

ao.sprd2.gif

 

You have to keep in mind that the AO is a hemispheric index. The air over the arctic will take the path of least resistance, which in this case will be over Kamchatka and across the North Pacific, not North America.

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