H2O Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 ITS PREMATURE to say its all snow at DCA sure... but its also premature to say its all rain or no significant snow Agree. But it is unsure which way it will go with temps until storm track becomes consistent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 IMO- the track of the lp alone is a simple flag for the metros. Yea, we can still score like that but IF the track went down like that I have a really hard time believing it would be all snow. We're going to get a ton looks for the next week anyways. Not worth overthinking this run. Hopefully the ensembles gain support for a similar or east track. we'll need crashing heights to go along with luck no matter how it ultimately plays out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 i agree about 2009 ... its NOTHING like dec 19-20 2009... but the dates are closeI guess it goes without saying if JB mentioned it. But seriously this is the range the euro likes to give us big snowstorms that end up marginal events that are inland snows. Not saying that is the case here but I'm cautious for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 Oh, now yall wake up for the 21st storm. I (and mapgirl!) had faith all along. I'd like my imaginary credit for my imaginary skills, thanks. In all seriousness, still think the best chances are obviously N and W, but with the way this has been going, cities are way in the game. Remember, just a few days ago, the models had no good cold air to be found. Ok, since you left me out, I had to bring this from the archive. I was with you before you were with you...lol. No kidding......but don't worry.......that will come just as soon as one model shows a bad solution. I'm still holding out hope for that Day 8-10 storm. Maybe it could be like last years Dec 8 storm??? Or the year before's Dec 26 storm?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Euro pretty much ruled the roost on the Thanksgiving storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Is it just me, or has the idea that the Euro over amplifies storms not really verified lately? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Remember all we are talking 6+ days away... no need to get into the fine details of the rain/snow lines Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I haven't said much except that a 2009 comparo is pretty dumb. Just because what 2009 was and how far off we are if nothing else. I usually wait till day 5ish to share much.. Everyone has it all figured out by then anyway. Wait, there are people comparing it to 2009? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Euro pretty much ruled the roost on the Thanksgiving storm. Is it just me, or has the idea that the Euro over amplifies storms not really verified lately? Euro was really good on the pre-Thanksgiving storm. It does really well with Miller A's. Always has. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Euro pretty much ruled the roost on the Thanksgiving storm. Yeah, it was the best Global, but I never put stock in looking how a particular model performed handling a previous storm. You can find a storm where any one of the Globals performed the best. Overall though, I put my eggs in a Euro basket for Miller As. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 Remember all we are talking 6+ days away... no need to get into the fine details of the rain/snow lines They aren't doing that. They're just analyzing the run. It will happen every few hours from here on. Nobody here takes one run as seriously as it might read. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Wait, there are people comparing it to 2009? Outside of JB, I'm not sure who is saying this could be like 2009. But it IS one of the analogs of the GEFS pattern for Christmas day. This storm is 4 days before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Euro pretty much ruled the roost on the Thanksgiving storm. It did well if you don't count the runs that clobbered the lowlands around this range. It's probably generally onto the right idea tho for one it seems really cold at the sfc next Saturday in the lead in. That low is awful close for how cold it is in this area. You could probably consider getting the shovel ready at this pt tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 Euro was really good on the pre-Thanksgiving storm. It does really well with Miller A's. Always has. That's what I was thinking. I'd love to hear why one model would do better with a particular type of Storm...probably couldn't understand it though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Correct me if I'm wrong, but the Euro pretty much ruled the roost on the Thanksgiving storm. I think it did, as far as consistency goes. It was first and then held on. Ian is right though...all of us vets should know better than to get emotionally invested at this point, even if the Euro shows it. It loves to amp us up at D 6-7 and then hang us out to dry. It's exciting to watch, but I can't get vested for another few days at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I guess it goes without saying if JB mentioned it. But seriously this is the range the euro likes to give us big snowstorms that end up marginal events that are inland snows. Not saying that is the case here but I'm cautious for now. I'm pretty much resigned that it will be a big interior event (if it happens), and we will be on the borderline of nada and 2-4".....but I don't care as much, because it is a saturday and we can chase....Winchester gets like 18" this run.... As far as the storm, I know cold air is an issue, but is it really that big of one? The setup is pretty good....it is an Archimbault front end event heading into a -NAO....plus split flow, quasi 50-50, ridging out west, blocking over Hudson Bay....this is not a hostile pattern....not a great one...but not that hostile either... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 14, 2014 Author Share Posted December 14, 2014 It did well if you don't count the runs that clobbered the lowlands around this range. It's probably generally onto the right idea tho for one it seems really cold at the sfc next Saturday in the lead in. That low is awful close for how cold it is in this area. You could probably consider getting the shovel ready at this pt tho. This is nearly a month later though. Couldn't the argument be made that because the Atlantic is colder, the fetch off of it will be colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 This is nearly a month later though. Couldn't the argument be made that because the Atlantic is colder, the fetch off of it will be colder? you're going to get smoked....enjoy it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 That's what I was thinking. I'd love to hear why one model would do better with a particular type of Storm...probably couldn't understand it though. Well, there's certainly a literature available on model biases, but I'm not sure how much of one there is on model strengths. For Miller A's specifically, I can make a hand-wavey argument that Euro is going to do better with Miller A's because they often involve phasing of s/w's and precisely placed baroclinic zones along the coast. Euro has 4DVAR data assimilation and so can probably better handle the s/w phasing. Add in the Euro's higher spatial resolution and it probably can handle the baroclinic zone placement better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 I'm pretty much resigned that it will be a big interior event (if it happens), and we will be on the borderline of nada and 2-4".....but I don't care as much, because it is a saturday and we can chase....Winchester gets like 18" this run.... As far as the storm, I know cold air is an issue, but is it really that big of one? The setup is pretty good....it is an Archimbault front end event heading into a -NAO....plus split flow, quasi 50-50, ridging out west, blocking over Hudson Bay....this is not a hostile pattern....not a great one...but not that hostile either... Makes sense overall. I'm not fishing for a foot IMBY that's for sure. We've still got a lot of time tho. I think many treat this range like it's getting close to a lock when it's really still on the very edge of being useful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 It did well if you don't count the runs that clobbered the lowlands around this range. It's probably generally onto the right idea tho for one it seems really cold at the sfc next Saturday in the lead in. That low is awful close for how cold it is in this area. You could probably consider getting the shovel ready at this pt tho. Yeah, I have trouble believing the temp depiction with the low being that close. Probably add 1c to those temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Yeah, I have trouble believing the temp depiction with the low being that close. Probably add 1c to those temps. WinterWxLuvr is preparing a room for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Sat 12Z thru Sunday 12Z every 6 hours at BWI.....warm layer at 800mb PRESSURE LEVELS SFC 1000 950 925 900 850 800 700 600 500 SAT 12Z 20-DEC 0 -1 -3 -4 -4 -2 -2 -5 -10 -18 SAT 18Z 20-DEC -1 -1 -5 -5 -4 -1 0 -4 -10 -17 SUN 00Z 21-DEC -1 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 1 -2 -10 -19 SUN 06Z 21-DEC 0 0 -3 -4 -3 -1 1 -4 -12 -23 SUN 12Z 21-DEC 0 0 -3 -5 -5 -4 -5 -9 -12 -22 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Makes sense overall. I'm not fishing for a foot IMBY that's for sure. We've still got a lot of time tho. I think many treat this range like it's getting close to a lock when it's really still on the very edge of being useful. yes...it's the edge of being useful even with the general idea....but the euro having essentially the same solution 3 runs in a row gives some confidence... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 An improving pattern is clearly helping this storm. I think we still have a little climo to deal with so knowing that we need a good track is important Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 comparing this run to the 0Z run purely on snowfall maps, this is a better run for DCA/BWI (almost double) I know quite well one should not look at those things so save the scoffs for some of my future posts, but the fact is that it is a better run for our area for what little it may be worth at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Ensembles about what you would expect. Move to HSE and then NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Ensembles about what you would expect. Move to HSE and then NE. Pretty good agreement with OP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Ensembles about what you would expect. Move to HSE and then NE. Good support for the op but I think a bit east? Lotta good members mixed in there. Good run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 14, 2014 Share Posted December 14, 2014 Good support for the op but I think a bit east? Lotta good members mixed in there. Good run The 7 day snow mean is 3-4" for DC. I'd say that's pretty good this far out. Pretty sure you want it a bit east too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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