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December Med/Long Range Disco


WinterWxLuvr

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Don't you pay the big bucks to find out what happens for days 11-15?

Ensemble mslp with low locations panels have a decent signal for a gom-obx track d10-12. The caveat is the hp location on the means is over and north of Maine. Verbatim it looks problenatic with the high sliding east. Definitely worth watching though.

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Ensemble mslp with low locations panels have a decent signal for a gom-obx track d10-12. The caveat is the hp location on the means is over and north of Maine. Verbatim it looks problenatic with the high sliding east. Definitely worth watching though.

At this stage, I'm not too particular with the details of the track.  I'm satisfied that we're probably going to have 3 storm chances before Christmas with increasing snow odds each time as the previous storms bring colder air south.  Getting snow out of one of these (most likely the 2nd or 3rd) will probably require the prior one being strong enough to drag some cold air behind it and then serve as a transient 50/50 to set up confluence to our north and try to hold those retreating highs in place long enough.    

 

I still think odds are better that we get some snow after Christmas and before New Year's with the cold air filling Canada and the northern tier by that period.  The ridge bridge you mentioned yesterday is present on all the ensembles by around the 21st.    

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Some of the weaker solutions look have decent look for a lighter event with stronger hp in better spots. I agree, have 3 chances spaced over a week to 10 days and it changes the odds for sure. I'd be happy with any event that gives dca over an inch. Even if it's messy. Snow climo starts favoring us and not fighting us by the 20th .

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Some of the weaker solutions look have decent look for a lighter event with stronger hp in better spots. I agree, have 3 chances spaced over a week to 10 days and it changes the odds for sure. I'd be happy with any event that gives dca over an inch. Even if it's messy. Snow climo starts favoring us and not fighting us by the 20th .

I get the feeling a lot of our storms will be messy this year in light of what we've been seeing. But I will say, those deep low pressures off the Atlantic coast, regardless of our sensible weather from them, sure put a sparkle in my eyes. I've got to believe 1, if not 2, should hit pay dirt for us over the course of the next 3 months. Which leads me to a 86/87 analog I guess.

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In his defense, he actually had a whole post on WxBell Premium on how he always makes a Central PA snow bust. He said he did it in the 70's, and he still does it today.

Well if it's for the sake of continuity...
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I get the feeling a lot of our storms will be messy this year in light of what we've been seeing. But I will say, those deep low pressures off the Atlantic coast, regardless of our sensible weather from them, sure put a sparkle in my eyes. I've got to believe 1, if not 2, should hit pay dirt for us over the course of the next 3 months. Which leads me to a 86/87 analog I guess.

 

 

GEFS (right or wrong) has been increasingly bullish about turning the AO negative around the 20th. This is the 6z member plot

 

post-2035-0-14636200-1418223445_thumb.jp

 

 

But the NAO remains stubborn as supported by just about all guidance. We're going to have to keep chasing that elusive ghost. We should be very used to it after 3 years straight...lol

 

post-2035-0-47826700-1418223504_thumb.jp

 

 

Euro isn't that different in amplitude and timing. Drops to near neutral around the 20th but big spread in both directions (range of +3 to -3 SDs)

 

Based on numerical data and our typical climo it's easy to envision a flawed snow threat possibility. The only way to lock in cold is what WxUSAF said. Transient feature in the right place at the right time. If something were to threaten in the 20-23rd timeframe my total wag would be a mixed bag at best. The trend towards a more neg AO during that time could mean better cold air available at least. 

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GEFS (right or wrong) has been increasingly bullish about turning the AO negative around the 20th. This is the 6z member plot

 

attachicon.gifgefsaomembers.JPG

 

 

But the NAO remains stubborn as supported by just about all guidance. We're going to have to keep chasing that elusive ghost. We should be very used to it after 3 years straight...lol

 

attachicon.gifgefsnaomembers.JPG

 

 

Euro isn't that different in amplitude and timing. Drops to near neutral around the 20th but big spread in both directions (range of +3 to -3 SDs)

 

Based on numerical data and our typical climo it's easy to envision a flawed snow threat possibility. The only way to lock in cold is what WxUSAF said. Transient feature in the right place at the right time. If something were to threaten in the 20-23rd timeframe my total wag would be a mixed bag at best. The trend towards a more neg AO during that time could mean better cold air available at least. 

good stuff Bob, thanks

my recollection is that the 2 storms in 1/87 weren't perfect set-ups for us, especially the 1st one

in fact, I recall the storm shutting off right before it looked to taint where I was living south of BWI

anyway, I'll take my chances with a -AO and fook the NAO if it doesn't want to cooperate, so hopefully the progs are right wrt the -AO

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There's probably no correlation but I was interested in how well a Dec. snow shutout (assuming we even get one) corresponds to overall seasonal snow. So...

 

There were 25 Decembers at BWI that were a snow shutout (O or T). Of those 25, only 9 went on to have above average snow. Since 1950, its only happened 3 times: 1954, 1966, and 1987. 1954 did have 5.9 inches in Nov. which really boosted the seasonal total, but 1966 and 1987 were Nov. shutouts too. Interestingly enough, all three were El Nino events, so maybe this is something for weenies to hang their hat on.

 

Edit: Its actually happened 4 times since 1950, not 3... I forgot 1979. But that was a neutral event, not El Nino.

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There's probably no correlation but I was interested in how well a Dec. snow shutout (assuming we even get one) corresponds to overall seasonal snow. So...
 
There were 25 Decembers at BWI that were a snow shutout (O or T). Of those 25, only 9 went on to have above average snow. Since 1950, its only happened 3 times: 1954, 1966, and 1987. 1954 did have 5.9 inches in Nov. which really boosted the seasonal total, but 1966 and 1987 were Nov. shutouts too. Interestingly enough, all three were El Nino events, so maybe this is something for weenies to hang their hat on.

 

Interesting. Was planning on looking at DCA similarly this weekend.. plus a few other things.  

 

IMO getting shut out thru Dec (if it happens) means we prob won't have a truly historic winter at the least. But that could be wrong of course. Of course as noted like 2 weeks ago it only takes like 3 hours of heavy snow to get to avg to date so hard to be super upset yet.  

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Interesting. Was planning on looking at DCA similarly this weekend.. plus a few other things.  

 

IMO getting shut out thru Dec (if it happens) means we prob won't have a truly historic winter at the least. But that could be wrong of course. Of course as noted like 2 weeks ago it only takes like 3 hours of heavy snow to get to avg to date so hard to be super upset yet.  

I'm pretty happy with winter so far.  2 WWA's, 1 WSW, 1 snow event (4.5), 2 sleet/fr rain events (yesterday was a very pretty event).

 

All in all, pretty good.

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I'm pretty happy with winter so far.  2 WWA's, 1 WSW, 1 snow event (4.5), 2 sleet/fr rain events (yesterday was a very pretty event).

 

All in all, pretty good.

Good argument for you to be in another subforum. :P

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Interesting. Was planning on looking at DCA similarly this weekend.. plus a few other things.  

 

IMO getting shut out thru Dec (if it happens) means we prob won't have a truly historic winter at the least. But that could be wrong of course. Of course as noted like 2 weeks ago it only takes like 3 hours of heavy snow to get to avg to date so hard to be super upset yet.  

 

At out latitude it probably doesn't make much difference. DCA can hit climo with 2 events. The other side of the case is there are plenty of examples of 2"+ in DC in Dec that didn't hit climo for the year. 7 out of the last 15 years alone. Feb is clearly our make or break month in general. 

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There's probably no correlation but I was interested in how well a Dec. snow shutout (assuming we even get one) corresponds to overall seasonal snow. So...
 
There were 25 Decembers at BWI that were a snow shutout (O or T). Of those 25, only 9 went on to have above average snow. Since 1950, its only happened 3 times: 1954, 1966, and 1987. 1954 did have 5.9 inches in Nov. which really boosted the seasonal total, but 1966 and 1987 were Nov. shutouts too. Interestingly enough, all three were El Nino events, so maybe this is something for weenies to hang their hat on.
 
Edit: Its actually happened 4 times since 1950, not 3... I forgot 1979. But that was a neutral event, not El Nino.

 

 

Just a detail, but are you sure about 1966? Christmas eve and all....

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Just a detail, but are you sure about 1966? Christmas eve and all....

 

I should probably clarify that I'm referring to the winter season, not that December. So I mean 1953-54, 1965-66, 1978-79, and 1986-87. Sorry if that was confusing. You're thinking of 1966-67 winter, which did have a record snowfall on Christmas Eve.

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At out latitude it probably doesn't make much difference. DCA can hit climo with 2 events. The other side of the case is there are plenty of examples of 2"+ in DC in Dec that didn't hit climo for the year. 7 out of the last 15 years alone. Feb is clearly our make or break month in general. 

Yeah I wouldn't necessarily take a ton from it. Though our recent historic winters were doing better than this one at this point. 

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Yeah I wouldn't necessarily take a ton from it. Though our recent historic winters were doing better than this one at this point.

The whole we're heading for a historic snow and cold thing was overplayed to some extent. It's not that simple and we haven't hit back to back + climo for 27 years (30+ if you take away the freak vet storm). We could do it this year for sure but that fact alone is a red flag regardless of just about every early indicator being in our favor.

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The whole we're heading for a historic snow and cold thing was overplayed to some extent. It's not that simple and we haven't hit back to back + climo for 27 years (30+ if you take away the freak vet storm). We could do it this year for sure but that fact alone is a red flag regardless of just about every early indicator being in our favor.

It's been 27 years since you guys have had back to back +climo winters?

+climo = 150%

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