CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 That whole area there along the coast. Will they keep it? It's all about the water content. I have all treble, no bass while he has mostly bass and little treble. Mine will be gone tomorrow aftn. You gotta remember, this is 42N and late November/early December. It's so dam difficult this time of year to have sustained snowpack. If it's not gone Monday night perhaps then it lasts through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 That whole area there along the coast. Will they keep it?Maybe patches? It's about 3" of solid ice at this point though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 The SREFs that just came in 9z run show 30-40% chance of snow on Tuesday 18z, NAM and GFS show inversion heights around 880-920mb with NNW to Northerly winds, GFS shows NNE or NE winds at the same time. Problem is no instabiiity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 The SREFs that just came in 9z run show 30-40% chance of snow on Tuesday 18z, NAM and GFS show inversion heights around 880-920mb with NNW to Northerly winds, GFS shows NNE or NE winds at the same time. Problem is no instabiiity. I don't see any members showing snow for Tuesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 It's all about the water content. I have all treble, no bass while he has mostly bass and little treble. Mine will be gone tomorrow aftn. You gotta remember, this is 42N and late November/early December. It's so dam difficult this time of year to have sustained snowpack. If it's not gone Monday night perhaps then it lasts through the weekend.Well we may add to it next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Well we may add to it next weekend It's something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 I don't see any members showing snow for Tuesday? I'm not on the individual members, I'm on the percentages for snow on the psu ewall site. Also the NWS is excited about the setup, showing SST delta ts of 20C and MUCAPE values of 300j/kg along with ncape of 0.24. Also with a N to NNE wind trajectory the NWS likes the outer cape for low to moderate risk of accumulating snow. This is via their NWS AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 It doesn't help that the ground is unfrozen under it. > 32 here from mid morning tomorrow to sunset on Monday probably as the cold doesn't get in early enough on Monday. Maybe we hold steady or fall a bit. I expect my 8 inches of cover to be down to less than half, maybe worse. Certain glens where 15" fell will still have good cover. It's all about the water content. I have all treble, no bass while he has mostly bass and little treble. Mine will be gone tomorrow aftn. You gotta remember, this is 42N and late November/early December. It's so dam difficult this time of year to have sustained snowpack. If it's not gone Monday night perhaps then it lasts through the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 It's something to watch. I don't really like how the pattern looks to be rather progressive beginning next week into the weekend. Doesn't seem to lave a ton of room for much in the way of trough amplification. Maybe we can sneak some type of quick moving clipper-like system that could drop a few inches but at least right now chances for anything more significant seem a bit low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 I don't really like how the pattern looks to be rather progressive beginning next week into the weekend. Doesn't seem to lave a ton of room for much in the way of trough amplification. Maybe we can sneak some type of quick moving clipper-like system that could drop a few inches but at least right now chances for anything more significant seem a bit low. Well if we get split flow, that's usually not a sign of very fast flow. I could see one of those deals where we have a 'fake" block or area of higher heights to the north over ern Canada. That can act as a pseudo block. T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 It doesn't help that the ground is unfrozen under it. > 32 here from mid morning tomorrow to sunset on Monday probably as the cold doesn't get in early enough on Monday. Maybe we hold steady or fall a bit. I expect my 8 inches of cover to be down to less than half, maybe worse. Certain glens where 15" fell will still have good cover. I'm sure Peter will keep his..lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Snow sticking to trees 3 days after an event in November is memorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Well if we get split flow, that's usually not a sign of very fast flow. I could see one of those deals where we have a 'fake" block or area of higher heights to the north over ern Canada. That can act as a pseudo block. T Seems like that is something that is possible for towards the end of the model period...like end of next weekend-ish into the following week? Euro does seem to develop that pseudo-block you mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Yeah, I thought so too. I wasn't trying to be a Debbie, just being honest. Looks marginal maybe even past mid month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2014 Author Share Posted November 29, 2014 2004esque. November snow, mild December with snow and enough cold to keep the mean low enough, very mid first part of January and off to the races mid January though March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Logan the Grey Stallion brings up something I was thinking about. Does unfrozen ground under snow and ice pack when the temps have been cold have any effect on melting the snow when temps go above freezing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Logan the Grey Stallion brings up something I was thinking about. Does unfrozen ground under snow and ice pack when the temps have been cold have any effect on melting the snow when temps go above freezing?it melts from the bottom up daily. My areas with no grass are almost bare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 If you think about it, this year we mostly get our surprises to the cold and snowy side. Even with a boring looking 2 weeks ahead we might still get a surprise to the cold or snowy side. A foot of snow up my way in November is awesome. It has been a great step down. I had said 48 inches down by Jan 1 and I think I have a shot at it. I bet we get 2 light-moderate snow events in next 2 weeks or so. After that I believe we get a period of cold and snow that we will remember for a long time. I have only seen -20 once since 2008 and I expect to get there this year. Even the boring looking pattern ahead isn't awful, as has been said by many. Let's remember the date and enjoy the process of our ongoing step down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2014 Author Share Posted November 29, 2014 I just checked the dailies for December 2004. Absolutely hideous. Some highlights for BOS on maximum temps: 57 in 12/1, upper 40s 2/3, 40s+ 7-13. 14th onward was much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 I just checked the dailies for December 2004. Absolutely hideous. Some highlights for BOS on maximum temps: 57 in 12/1, upper 40s 2/3, 40s+ 7-13. 14th onward was much better. Monster low heights over the NAO/AO that year, but the PNA was enough to avoid '94 and 2006 type deals. Probably less ugly of an AO this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Ventured into Shelburne Falls for internet at Mocha Maya's. Forgot my glasses, ftl, but will still be able to type better than on my phone. Agree 100% with Dave regarding impressive nature of the staying power of the snow 3 days after the storm. I took these on my way into town. The main road shot is Route 2, the other two are the road leading to the Pit, one of which is still closed. Comcast is saying cable will be restored on Tuesday. I'm really hoping they can pull it off sooner than that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2014 Author Share Posted November 29, 2014 Monster low heights over the NAO/AO that year, but the PNA was enough to avoid '94 and 2006 type deals. Probably less ugly of an AO this year. Yes. But I'm seeing the progression and it seems so 2004 like ts year at least for the calendar date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2014 Author Share Posted November 29, 2014 Mpm phone typing is legendary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Even more impressive. Trees with snow here at 120' above sea level at work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 I just checked the dailies for December 2004. Absolutely hideous. Some highlights for BOS on maximum temps: 57 in 12/1, upper 40s 2/3, 40s+ 7-13. 14th onward was much better. Thankfully nothing like that this Dec. almost opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Thankfully nothing like that this Dec. almost opposite Really? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted November 29, 2014 Author Share Posted November 29, 2014 Thankfully nothing like that this Dec. almost opposite Whoosh. I would argue its a lot like that but not as warm at the extreme points. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 Really?A 14 day torch? Nothing like that. We've got a couple cold shots and 2 wintry threats over the next 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jamesnichols89 Posted November 29, 2014 Share Posted November 29, 2014 I will tend to be cautiously optimistic about the OES potential on Tuesday while understanding how much it is easier to just fade away with time. So therefore I will closely monitor the NWS website to monitor the OES potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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